MODELING OF TELECOMMUNICATION REVENUE AS A PERCENTAGE OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT’S FOR COUNTRIES WITH FRACTIONAL CALCULUS

Year 2021, Volume: 6 Issue: 1, 28 - 34, 29.06.2021

Nisa Özge Önal Tuğrul , Esra Ergün Deniz Can Köseoğlu Kamil Karacuha , Kevser Şimşek Ertugrul Karacuha

https://doi.org/10.52876/jcs.911144

Cited By: 4

Abstract

This study explores the modeling of the share of telecommunication revenues in gross domestic product from the year 2000 to 2018 for 5 countries including France, Germany, Italy, Turkey, the UK, and the OECD average. First, a new mathematical model based on Fractional Calculus and Least Square Method is proposed. Later, the telecommunication revenues in GDP dataset is modeled. Further, we compare the new Fractional approach to the classical Polynomial approach in three different settings. The results show that employing Fractional Calculus yields better modeling performance when compared to the classical Polynomial Approach in terms of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The Fractional approach outperforms the Polynomial approach by 0.1329 % MAPE on average. The largest MAPE is found for Turkey while the smallest MAPE is obtained for Italy in all settings.

Keywords

Fractional Calculus, GDP, MAPE, Modelling, Telecommunication Revenue

Supporting Institution

İTÜ VODAFONE FUTURE LAB

Project Number

ITUVF20180901P11

Thanks

This work is supported in part by Istanbul Technical University (ITU) Vodafone Future Lab under Project No. ITUVF20180901P11.

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