Türkiye Ekonomisinde Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ve Finansal Gelişme İlişkisi

Öz

Literatür finansal gelişmenin temel belirleyicilerinden biri olarak doğrudan yabancı yatırımları (DYY) göstermektedir. Bu çalışma, DYY odaklı finansal gelişme hipotezini Türkiye ekonomisi için test etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmada finansal gelişme bağımlı değişken olarak ele alınırken, literatürle uyumlu biçimde DYY’nin yanı sıra kentleşme, endüstrileşme ve sabit sermaye oluşumu değişkenleri modele dâhil edilmiştir. Analiz sürecinde zaman serisi özellikleri dikkate alınmış; serilerin durağanlık düzeyleri ADF ve PP birim kök testleri ile incelenmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönem ilişkisinin varlığı ARDL sınır testi ile araştırılmış, uzun dönem katsayıları ise FMOLS ve CCR tahmincileri yardımıyla tahmin edilmiştir. Ayrıca değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi Granger nedensellik testi ile analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Uzun dönem sonuçlarına göre DYY, kentleşme ve endüstrileşme finansal gelişmeyi pozitif yönde etkilerken, sabit sermaye değişkeninin negatif etkisi tespit edilmiştir. Nedensellik bulguları ise endüstrileşme ile finansal gelişme arasında çift yönlü bir ilişkiye işaret etmektedir. Çalışma sonuçları, Türkiye’de finansal sektörün güçlendirilmesine yönelik politika tasarımlarına katkı sunabilecek niteliktedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• DYY
• Finasal Gelişme
• ARDL
• Granger Nedensellik
• Türkiye

Etik Beyan

Bu çalışma, etik kurul izni gerektirmeyen nitelikte olup kullanılan veriler literatür taraması/yayınlanmış kaynaklar üzerinden elde edilmiştir. Çalışmanın hazırlanma sürecinde bilimsel ve etik ilkelere uyulduğu ve yararlanılan tüm çalışmaların kaynakçada belirtildiği beyan olunur.

The Link between FDI and Financial Development in Turkish Economy

Öz

The literature identifies foreign direct investment (FDI) as one of the key determinants of financial development. This study aims to test the FDI-led financial development hypothesis for the Turkish economy. Financial development is treated as the dependent variable, and, consistent with the literature, urbanization, industrialization, and gross fixed capital formation are incorporated into the model alongside FDI. The analysis accounts for time-series properties: the stationarity of the series is examined using the ADF and PP unit root tests. The existence of a long-run relationship among the variables is investigated using the ARDL bounds testing approach, and long-run coefficients are estimated via the FMOLS and CCR estimators. In addition, causal linkages among the variables are analyzed using the Granger causality test. The findings indicate the presence of a long-run cointegration relationship among the variables. In the long run, FDI, urbanization, and industrialization positively affect financial development, whereas gross fixed capital formation exerts a negative effect. The causality results suggest a bidirectional relationship between industrialization and financial development. Overall, the results may contribute to policy design aimed at strengthening the financial sector in Türkiye.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• FDI
• Financial Development
• ARDL
• Granger Causality
• Turkey

Etik Beyan

No artificial intelligence–based tools or applications were used in the preparation of this study. All content of the study was produced by the author(s) in accordance with scientific research methods and academic ethical principles

Kaynakça

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