Hâkim Mali Rejimin Belirlenmesinde Doğrusal Yöntemlerin Gücü: Türkiye İncelemesi

Öz

Fiyat Düzeyinin Mali Teorisi (the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, FTPL), enflasyon hedefleme stratejisinin uygulandığı ekonomilerde eğer hakim rejim Ricardocu olmayan ise para politikalarının fiyat düzeyini kontrol etmede yetersiz kalacağını, bu nedenle optimum politikanın her koşulda, para ve maliye politikalarının bir birleşiminden oluşması gerektiğini ileri sürmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’deki hâkim maliye politikası rejiminin ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımının kullanılarak incelenmesi ve elde edilen sonuçların gerçek gözlemlerle kıyaslanmasıdır. İnceleme dönemi 1996-2019 aralığını kapsamaktadır ve çeyrek yıllık veri seti kullanılmıştır. Hükümetin maliye politikasına ilişkin gerçek davranışının yapısal denge ile daha doğru şekilde gözlemlenebileceği varsayımından hareketle, faiz dışı dengenin alt bileşenleri de (yapısal denge ve devresel denge) analize dâhil edilmiştir. İnceleme dönemi boyunca Türkiye ekonomisinde para ve maliye politikalarında değişikliğe yol açabilecek önemli kırılmalar yaşanmıştır. Olası politika değişikliklerini gözlemleyebilmek için örneklemi farklı dönemlere bölmek yerine, dönemler arasındaki farklılığı yansıtacak kukla değişkenler kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçları, yapısal dengenin, hükümetin uyguladığı maliye politikasına yönelik gerçek davranışı daha doğru şekilde yansıttığını göstermektedir. Elde edilen bir diğer sonuç, doğrusal ARDL yaklaşımının özellikle mali alanın daraldığı dönemlerde maliye politikasındaki değişimleri yakalamakta yetersiz kaldığıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Fiyat Düzeyinin Mali Teorisi
• Yapısal Bütçe Dengesi
• Ricardocu-Ricardocu Olmayan Rejim
• ARD

The Power of Linear Methods in Determining the Dominant Fiscal Regime: A Research on Turkiye

Öz

The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level suggests that in a non-Ricardian regime, an inflation targeting monetary policy will no longer be able to control the price level, and that optimum policy should always include a combination of monetary and fiscal policies. The aim of this paper is to investigate the dominant fiscal policy regime in Turkiye using the ARDL Bounds Testing Approach and to compare the results with actual observations. The review period covers 1996–2019 period for which the quarterly data set is used. Based on the assumption that the actual behavior of the government’s fiscal policy can be observed more accurately with the structural balance, the sub-components of primary balance (structural and cyclical balance) are also included in the analysis. During the review period, there were important breaks in the Turkish economy that could lead to changes in monetary and fiscal policies. To observe possible policy changes, rather than dividing the sample into different periods, dummy variables were used to reflect the difference between periods. The results of the analysis show that the structural balance more accurately reflects the actual behavior of the government’s fiscal policy. Another finding is that the linear ARDL approach is insufficient to capture the changes in the fiscal policy, especially in the periods when the fiscal space narrows.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
• Structural Budget Balance
• Ricardian non- Ricardian
• ARDL

Kaynakça

1. Barro, R. J. (1974). Are government bonds net wealth? Journal of'PoltticalEconomy, 82, 1095-1117. google scholar
2. Barro, R. J. (1989). Interest rate targeting. Journal of Monetary Economics, 23, 3-30. google scholar
3. Bayar, D. K. (2015). Structural fiscal balances in Turkey: Cyclical Fluctuations and Beyond. Amme İdaresi Dergisi, 48(3), 61-93. google scholar
4. Bianchi, F., & Melosi, L. (2017). Escaping the Great Recession. American Economic Review, 4, 1030-1058. google scholar
5. Bouthevillain, C., & et.al. (2001). Cyclically adjusted budget balances: An alternative approach. ECB Working Paper Series, 77. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10419/152511. google scholar
6. Bölükbaş, M., & Peker, O. (2017). The relationship between price level and fiscal policy in Turkey: An Econometrical Analysis of the FTPL Approach. Maliye Dergisi(172), 1-14. google scholar
7. Canzoneri, M., Cumby, R., & Diba, B. (2001). Is the price level determined by the needs of fiscal solvency? American Economic Review, 91(5), 1221-1238. google scholar
8. Cebi, C., & Özlale, Ü. (2011). Structural budget balance and fiscal stance in Turkey. CBBT Working Paper, 11/11. google scholar

9. Cochrane, J. H. (1999). A frictionless view of U.S. inflation. B. S. Bernanke, & J. Rotemberg içinde, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1998 (s. 323-421). Boston: MIT Press. google scholar
10. Cochrane, J. H. (2001). Long-term debt and optimal policy in the fiscal theory of price level. Econometrica, 69(1), 69-116. google scholar
11. Cochrane, J. H. (2011). Inflation and debt. National Affairs, 9, 56-78. google scholar
12. Cochrane, J. H. (2020). A Fiscal theory of monetary policy with partially-repaid long-term debt. NBER Working Paper, 26745. google scholar
13. Creel, J., & Bihan, H. L. (2006). Using structural balance data to test the fiscal theory of the price level: Some international evidence. Journal ofMacroeconomics, 28, 338-360. google scholar
14. Dalgıç, B., İyidoğan, P. V., & Balıkçıoğlu, E. (2014). Sustainability of fiscal policy: An empirical examination for Turkish economy. Journal of Business, Economics & Finance, 3(2), 133-147. google scholar
15. Daly, H., & Smida, M. (2014). Fiscal theory of price level. International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, II(11), 1-22. google scholar
16. Davig, T., & Leeper, E. M. (2011). Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and fiscal stimulus. European Economic Review, 55(2), 211-227. google scholar
17. Friedman, M. (1968). The Role of monetary policy/ Presidential address delivered at the 80th Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association. American Economic Review, 58, 1-17. google scholar
18. Girouard, N., & Andre, C. (2005). Measuring Cyclically adjusted budget balances for OECD Countries. OECD Economics Department Working Papers(434). https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2005002 google scholar
19. Hodrick, R. J., & Prescott, E. C. (1980). Post war U.S. business cycles: An Empirical investigation. Carnegie-Mellon University Discussion Paper, 451. google scholar
20. Hodrick, R. J., & Prescott, E. C. (1997). Post-war U.S. business cycles: an empirical investigation. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29(1), 1-16. google scholar
21. Kaya, F., & Yılmaz, A. (2013). Elasticity of taxes and structural general government balance in Turkey. https:// dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2330293 google scholar
22. Kliem, M., Kriwoluzky, A., & Sarferaz, S. (2016). On the low-frequency relationship between public deficits and inflation. Journal of AppliedEconometrics, 31, 566-583. google scholar
23. Koyuncu, F. T. (2014). Causality Network between budget deficit, money supply and inflation: An application to Turkey. International Journal ofBusiness and Social Science, 5(10), 225-235. google scholar
24. Kuştepeli, Y., & Önel, G. (2019). Fiscal deficit sustainability with a structural break: An application to Turkey. Review of Social, Economic & Business Studies, 5/6, 189-208. google scholar
25. Leeper, E. (1991). Equilibria under active and passive monetary policies. Journal ofMonetary Economics, 27, 129147. google scholar
26. Mankiw, N. G., & Reis, R. (2018). Friedman’s Presidential address in the evolution of macroeconomic thought. Journal ofEconomic Perspectives, 32(1), 81-96. google scholar
27. Oktayer, A. (2013). Fiyat düzeyi mali teorisinin Türkiye açısından geçerliliği: Ampirik bir analiz. İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, 63(1), 51-79. google scholar
28. Oktayer, A., & Oktayer, N. (2016). Monetary and fiscal policy interactions: An Empirical evidence from Turkey. M. Erdoğdu, & B. Christiensen içinde, Handbook ofResearch on Public Finance in Europe and the MENA Region (s. 447-475). Hershey: IGI Global. google scholar
29. Panjer, N., Haan, L. d., & Jacobs, J. (2017). Is Fiscal policy in the Euro Area Ricardian? DNB Working Paper, 562. google scholar
30. Peseran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (1996). Testing for the Existence of a long-run relationship. DAE Working Paper, 9622. google scholar
31. Peseran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal ofApplied Econometrics(16), 289-326. google scholar
32. Sargent, T., & Wallace, N. (1981). Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review(5), 1-17. google scholar
33. Sims, C. (1994). A simple model for study of the price level and the interaction of monetary and fiscal policy. Journal ofEconomic Theory, 4, 381-399. google scholar
34. Sims, C. (1999). Domestic currency denominated government debt as equity in the primary surplus. Latin American Meetings on American Society (s. 1-12). Cancun: Mexico. google scholar
35. Sims, C. (2016). Active fiscal, passive money equilibrium in a purely backward-looking model. Erişim adresi: http://sims.princeton.edu/yftp/FiscalTheoryGreatInflation/BackwardAFPM.pdf. google scholar
36. Taylor, J. B. (1993). Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie—Rochester conference series on public policy, (s. 195-214). North-Holland. google scholar
37. Telatar, E. (2002). Empirical Determination of the economic policy regime in Turkey. İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 17(198), 61-70. google scholar
38. Woodford, M. (1994). Monetary policy and price level determinacy in a cash-in-advance economy. Journal of Economic Theory, 4, 345-380. google scholar
39. Woodford, M. (1995). Price level determinacy without control of a monetary aggregate. NBER Working Paper Series, 5204. google scholar
40. Woodford, M. (1996). Control of the public debt: a requirement for price stability? NBER Working Paper, 1-39. google scholar
41. Yurkadul, F., & Saçkan, O. (2007). Genel fiyat düzeyinin belirlenmesinde para ve maliye politikası baskın rejimler. Ankara University SBF Dergisi, 62(2), 219-236. google scholar
42. Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. W. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis. Journal ofBusiness and Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270. google scholar