Araştırma Makalesi
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Analysis in Terms of Adaptation Hypothesis of the Spatial Relationship Between Migration And Fertility in Turkey

Yıl 2021, Sayı: 64, 47 - 72, 29.12.2021
https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2021-868861

Öz

A nation’s population is dependent on the quality and quantity of birth, migration, and death of its citizens. Recently, in Turkey, the increasing number of migrant women and the change in fertility behavior with migration has become a concern. Thus, to understand the socio-economic adaptation process of migrant women and the change in family structures in destination places, it is necessary to analyze the fertility behavior of migrant women. The study of fertility within the economic framework was first proposed by Becker in 1960, and many studies have been carried out since then. In studies examining the relationship between fertility and migration, four hypotheses, namely, adaptation, disruptive effect, selectivity, and socialization hypothesis, came to the fore. Thus, the present study aimed to determine the factors that affect fertility in Turkey using 2013 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey data and to evaluate the effect of internal migration on fertility in terms of the adaptation hypothesis using a robust Poisson regression through count data model. In the analyses, the number of children was taken as a fertility indicator. This study also examined the spatial relationship between migration and fertility by spatial econometrics. The findings suggest that the hypothesis of adaptation can explain the relationship between migration and fertility of women in Turkey.

Kaynakça

  • Adsera, A., & Ferrer, A. (2014). Factors influencing the fertility choices of child immigrants in Canada. Population Studies: A Journal of Demography, 68(1), 65-79. google scholar
  • Anselin, L., & Bera, A. K. (1998). Spatial dependence in linear regression models with in introduction to spatial econometrics. In A. Ullah (Eds.), Handbook of applied economic statistics (pp. 237-289). New York: CRC Press. google scholar
  • Becker, G. S. (1960). An economic analysis of fertility. In Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, Universities-Natıonal Bureau Committee for Economıc Research, Publisher: Columbıa Unıversıty Press, 209-240. ISBN: 0-87014-302-6. google scholar
  • Becker, G. S. (1992). Fertility and the economy. Journal ofPopulation Economics, 5, 185-201. google scholar
  • Brockerhoff, M., & Yang, X. (1994). Impact of migration on fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa. Social Biology, 41(1-2), 19-43. google scholar
  • Cameron, A. C., & Trivedi, P. K. (1986). Econometrics models based on count data: Comparison and applications of some estimators and tests. Journal ofApplied Econometrics, 1, 29-53. google scholar
  • Coxe, S., West, S. G., & Aiken, L. S. (2009). The analysis of count data: a gentle introduction to Poisson regression and its alternatives. Journal ofPersonality Assessment, 91(2), 121-136. google scholar
  • Darmofal, D. (2006). Spatial econometrics and political science. Annual Meeting of Southern Political Science Association.1-40. https://people.cas.sc.edu/darmofal/Spatial%20Econometrics.pdf. google scholar
  • Deniz, Ö. (2005). Poisson regresyon analizi. İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 7, 59-72. google scholar
  • Eryurt, M. A., & Koç, İ. (2012). Internal migration and fertility in Turkey: Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. International Journal ofPopulation Research Hindawi Publishing Corporation, Vol. 2012, Article ID doi:10.1155/2012/329050DOI:10.1155/2012/329050329050, 1-11. google scholar
  • Farber, S. C., & Lee, B. S. (1984). Fertility adaptation of rural-to-urban migrant women: A method of estimation applied to Korean women. Demography, 21(3), 339-345. google scholar
  • Gabrielli, G., Paterno, A., & White, M. (2007). The impact of origin region and internal migration on Italian fertility. Demographic Research, 17, 705-740. google scholar
  • Genereux, A. (2007). A review of migration and fertility theory through the lens of African immigrant fertility in France. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Working Paper. google scholar
  • Goldstein, S., & Goldstein, A. (1983). Migration and fertility in Peninsular Malaysia: An analysis using life history data. Santa Monica: The Rand Corporation. google scholar
  • Hendershot, G. E. (1971). City ward migration and urban fertility in the Philippines. Philippines Sociological Review, 19(3), 183-193. google scholar
  • Hepple, L. W. (1998). Exact testing for spatial autocorrelation among regression residuals. Environment and PlanningA, 30, 85-108. google scholar
  • Hervitz, H. M. (1985). Selectivity, adaptation, or disruption? A comparison of alternative hypotheses on the effects of migration on fertility: The Case of Brazil. The International Migration Review, 19(2), 293-317. google scholar
  • Jensen, E. R., & Ahlburg, D. A. (2004). Why does migration decrease fertility? Evidence from the Philippines. Population Studies, 58(2), 219-231. google scholar
  • Kulu, H. (2005). Migration and fertility: Competing hypotheses re-examined. European Journal of Population, 21, 51-87. google scholar
  • Lee, B. S., & Pol, L. G. (1993). The influence of rural-urban migration on migrants’ fertility in Korea, Mexico and Cameroon. Population Research and Policy Review, 12, 3-26. google scholar
  • Lee, B. S., & Farber, S. C. (1984). Fertility adaptation by rural-urban migrants in developing countries: The Case of Korea. Population Studies, 38(1), 141-155. google scholar
  • LeSage J. P. (2005). Spatial econometrics. In K. Kempf-Leonard (Eds.), Encyclopedia of social measurement (Vol 3) Amsterdam: Elsevier Academic Press. google scholar
  • LeSage, J. P. (1999). The theory and practice of spatial econometrics. Retrieved from: https://www.researchgate.net/ publication/266218273_The_Theory_and_Practice_of_Spatial_Econometrics. google scholar
  • Long, J. (1997). Regression models for categorical and limited dependent variables. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications. google scholar
  • McCullah P., & Nelder, J. A. (1996). Generalized linear models. New York: Chapman & Hall. google scholar
  • Oktay, E. Y. (2014). Türkiye’de Cumhuriyetin ilanından günümüze uygulanan nüfus politikaları. Yalova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 4(7), 31-53. google scholar
  • Omondi, C. O., & Ayiemba, E. H. (2013). Fertility differentials in Kenya: The effect of female migration. African Population Studies, 20(2), 25-42. google scholar
  • Ribe, H., & Schultz, T. P. (1980). Migrant and native fertility in Colombia in 1973: Migrants selected according to their reproductive preferences? Center Discussion Paper, No. 355, Yale University, Economic Growth Center, New Haven, CT. google scholar
  • Rokicki, S., Montana, L, & Fink, G. (2014). Impact of migration on fertility and abortion: Evidence from the household and welfare study of Accra. Demography, 51(6), 2229-2254. google scholar
  • Selim, S. (2004). Türkiye’de çocuk talebi ve kadınların işgücüne katılımının doğurganlık üzerindeki etkisi: Ekonometrik yaklaşım [The demand for children in Turkey and the effects of Women’s labor force participation on fertility: Econometric Approach] in Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi (Doktora Tezi). Erişim adresi: https://tez.yok. gov.tr/UlusalTezMerkezi/tezSorguSonucYeni.jsp. google scholar
  • Stephen, E. H., & Bean, F. D. (1992). Assimilation, disruption and the fertility of Mexican-Origin women in the United States. The International Migration Review, 26(1), 67-88. google scholar
  • Hacettepe Üniversitesi, Nüfus Etüdleri Enstitüsü, Türkiye Nüfus ve Sağlık Araştırması [Hacettepe University, Institute of Population Studies, Turkey Demographic and Health Survey] (2013) Mikro Veri Seti. google scholar
  • Tobler W.R. (1979). Cellular geography. In: Gale S., Olsson G. (eds) Philosophy in Geography. Theory and Decision Library (An International Series in the Philosophy and Methodology of the Social and Behavioral Sciences), Vol 20. Dordrecht: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-9394-5_18 google scholar
  • Tuzcu, S. E. (2016). Mekânsal ekonometri ve sosyal bilimlerde kullanım alanları [Spatial econometrics and areas of use in social sciences]. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 71(2), 401-436. google scholar Ünsal, E. M. (2007). İktisadi büyüme [Economic growth]. Ankara, Turkey: İmaj Yayıncılık. google scholar
  • Willis, R. J. (1973). A new approach to the economic theory of fertility behavior. Journal of Political Economy, 81(2). 14-64. google scholar
  • White, M. J., Tagoe, E., Stiff, C., Adazul, K., & Smith, D. J. (2005). Urbanization and the fertility transition in Ghana. Population Research and Policy, 24, 59-83. google scholar
  • Winkelmann, R., & Zimmermann, K. F. (1995). Recent developments in count data modelling: theory and application. Journal of Economic Surveys, 9(1), 1-24. google scholar
  • Winkelmann, R., & Zimmermann, K. F. (1994). Count data models for demographic data. Mathematical Population Studies, 4(3), 205-221. google scholar
  • Wooldridge, J. M. (2002). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data. London: The MIT Press. google scholar
  • Yakar, M. (2013). XXI. Yüzyılın başında Türkiye>de iller arası göçlerin mekansal ve istatistiksel analizi [Spatial and statistical analysis of inter-provincial migrations in Turkey at the beginning of the XXIth century]. Zeitschrift für die Welt der Türken Journal of World of Turks, 5(3), 239-263. google scholar

Türkiye’de Göç ile Doğurganlık Arasındaki Mekânsal İlişkinin Adaptasyon Hipotezi Açısından Analizi

Yıl 2021, Sayı: 64, 47 - 72, 29.12.2021
https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2021-868861

Öz

Ülkelerin nüfusu; doğum, göç ve ölüm nedeniyle nitelik ve nicelik olarak değişen bir olgudur. Özellikle son yıllarda Türkiye’de göç eden nüfus içerisinde kadın sayısının artması ve göç ile birlikte doğurganlık davranışının değişmesi söz konusu olmuştur. Bu bağlamda Türkiye’de göç eden kadınların sosyo-ekonomik olarak uyum sağlama süreci ve göç alan yerlerdeki aile yapılarındaki değişimin anlaşılabilmesi için göç eden kadınların doğurganlık davranışının analiz edilmesi gerekmektedir. Doğurganlığın, ekonomik çerçeve içerisinde ele alınması ilk olarak Becker (1960) tarafından ortaya atılmış ve literatürde birçok çalışma yapılmıştır. Doğurganlık ve göç arasındaki ilişkiyi inceleyen çalışmalarda ise adaptasyon, bozucu etki, seçicilik ve sosyalleşme hipotezi olmak üzere dört hipotez ön plana çıkmıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2013 yılına ait Türkiye Nüfus ve Sağlık Araştırması (TNSA) verileri kullanılarak Türkiye’de doğurganlığı etkileyen faktörlerin belirlenmesi ve iç göçlerin doğurganlık üzerine olan etkisinin sayma veri modelleri aracılığıyla Robust Poisson regresyon modeli kullanılarak adaptasyon hipotezi açısından değerlendirilmesidir. Analizlerde doğurganlık göstergesi olarak sahip olunan çocuk sayısı alınmıştır. Ayrıca bu çalışmada, göç ile doğurganlık arasındaki mekansal ilişkinin varlığı mekânsal ekonometri aracılığıyla araştırılmıştır. Bu çalışmadan elde edilen bulgulara göre Türkiye’de kadınların göç ve doğurganlıkları arasındaki ilişkinin açıklanmasında mekânsal bir ilişkinin varlığı ile birlikte adaptasyon hipotezinin geçerli olmadığı görülmüştür.

Kaynakça

  • Adsera, A., & Ferrer, A. (2014). Factors influencing the fertility choices of child immigrants in Canada. Population Studies: A Journal of Demography, 68(1), 65-79. google scholar
  • Anselin, L., & Bera, A. K. (1998). Spatial dependence in linear regression models with in introduction to spatial econometrics. In A. Ullah (Eds.), Handbook of applied economic statistics (pp. 237-289). New York: CRC Press. google scholar
  • Becker, G. S. (1960). An economic analysis of fertility. In Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, Universities-Natıonal Bureau Committee for Economıc Research, Publisher: Columbıa Unıversıty Press, 209-240. ISBN: 0-87014-302-6. google scholar
  • Becker, G. S. (1992). Fertility and the economy. Journal ofPopulation Economics, 5, 185-201. google scholar
  • Brockerhoff, M., & Yang, X. (1994). Impact of migration on fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa. Social Biology, 41(1-2), 19-43. google scholar
  • Cameron, A. C., & Trivedi, P. K. (1986). Econometrics models based on count data: Comparison and applications of some estimators and tests. Journal ofApplied Econometrics, 1, 29-53. google scholar
  • Coxe, S., West, S. G., & Aiken, L. S. (2009). The analysis of count data: a gentle introduction to Poisson regression and its alternatives. Journal ofPersonality Assessment, 91(2), 121-136. google scholar
  • Darmofal, D. (2006). Spatial econometrics and political science. Annual Meeting of Southern Political Science Association.1-40. https://people.cas.sc.edu/darmofal/Spatial%20Econometrics.pdf. google scholar
  • Deniz, Ö. (2005). Poisson regresyon analizi. İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 7, 59-72. google scholar
  • Eryurt, M. A., & Koç, İ. (2012). Internal migration and fertility in Turkey: Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. International Journal ofPopulation Research Hindawi Publishing Corporation, Vol. 2012, Article ID doi:10.1155/2012/329050DOI:10.1155/2012/329050329050, 1-11. google scholar
  • Farber, S. C., & Lee, B. S. (1984). Fertility adaptation of rural-to-urban migrant women: A method of estimation applied to Korean women. Demography, 21(3), 339-345. google scholar
  • Gabrielli, G., Paterno, A., & White, M. (2007). The impact of origin region and internal migration on Italian fertility. Demographic Research, 17, 705-740. google scholar
  • Genereux, A. (2007). A review of migration and fertility theory through the lens of African immigrant fertility in France. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Working Paper. google scholar
  • Goldstein, S., & Goldstein, A. (1983). Migration and fertility in Peninsular Malaysia: An analysis using life history data. Santa Monica: The Rand Corporation. google scholar
  • Hendershot, G. E. (1971). City ward migration and urban fertility in the Philippines. Philippines Sociological Review, 19(3), 183-193. google scholar
  • Hepple, L. W. (1998). Exact testing for spatial autocorrelation among regression residuals. Environment and PlanningA, 30, 85-108. google scholar
  • Hervitz, H. M. (1985). Selectivity, adaptation, or disruption? A comparison of alternative hypotheses on the effects of migration on fertility: The Case of Brazil. The International Migration Review, 19(2), 293-317. google scholar
  • Jensen, E. R., & Ahlburg, D. A. (2004). Why does migration decrease fertility? Evidence from the Philippines. Population Studies, 58(2), 219-231. google scholar
  • Kulu, H. (2005). Migration and fertility: Competing hypotheses re-examined. European Journal of Population, 21, 51-87. google scholar
  • Lee, B. S., & Pol, L. G. (1993). The influence of rural-urban migration on migrants’ fertility in Korea, Mexico and Cameroon. Population Research and Policy Review, 12, 3-26. google scholar
  • Lee, B. S., & Farber, S. C. (1984). Fertility adaptation by rural-urban migrants in developing countries: The Case of Korea. Population Studies, 38(1), 141-155. google scholar
  • LeSage J. P. (2005). Spatial econometrics. In K. Kempf-Leonard (Eds.), Encyclopedia of social measurement (Vol 3) Amsterdam: Elsevier Academic Press. google scholar
  • LeSage, J. P. (1999). The theory and practice of spatial econometrics. Retrieved from: https://www.researchgate.net/ publication/266218273_The_Theory_and_Practice_of_Spatial_Econometrics. google scholar
  • Long, J. (1997). Regression models for categorical and limited dependent variables. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications. google scholar
  • McCullah P., & Nelder, J. A. (1996). Generalized linear models. New York: Chapman & Hall. google scholar
  • Oktay, E. Y. (2014). Türkiye’de Cumhuriyetin ilanından günümüze uygulanan nüfus politikaları. Yalova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 4(7), 31-53. google scholar
  • Omondi, C. O., & Ayiemba, E. H. (2013). Fertility differentials in Kenya: The effect of female migration. African Population Studies, 20(2), 25-42. google scholar
  • Ribe, H., & Schultz, T. P. (1980). Migrant and native fertility in Colombia in 1973: Migrants selected according to their reproductive preferences? Center Discussion Paper, No. 355, Yale University, Economic Growth Center, New Haven, CT. google scholar
  • Rokicki, S., Montana, L, & Fink, G. (2014). Impact of migration on fertility and abortion: Evidence from the household and welfare study of Accra. Demography, 51(6), 2229-2254. google scholar
  • Selim, S. (2004). Türkiye’de çocuk talebi ve kadınların işgücüne katılımının doğurganlık üzerindeki etkisi: Ekonometrik yaklaşım [The demand for children in Turkey and the effects of Women’s labor force participation on fertility: Econometric Approach] in Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi (Doktora Tezi). Erişim adresi: https://tez.yok. gov.tr/UlusalTezMerkezi/tezSorguSonucYeni.jsp. google scholar
  • Stephen, E. H., & Bean, F. D. (1992). Assimilation, disruption and the fertility of Mexican-Origin women in the United States. The International Migration Review, 26(1), 67-88. google scholar
  • Hacettepe Üniversitesi, Nüfus Etüdleri Enstitüsü, Türkiye Nüfus ve Sağlık Araştırması [Hacettepe University, Institute of Population Studies, Turkey Demographic and Health Survey] (2013) Mikro Veri Seti. google scholar
  • Tobler W.R. (1979). Cellular geography. In: Gale S., Olsson G. (eds) Philosophy in Geography. Theory and Decision Library (An International Series in the Philosophy and Methodology of the Social and Behavioral Sciences), Vol 20. Dordrecht: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-9394-5_18 google scholar
  • Tuzcu, S. E. (2016). Mekânsal ekonometri ve sosyal bilimlerde kullanım alanları [Spatial econometrics and areas of use in social sciences]. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 71(2), 401-436. google scholar Ünsal, E. M. (2007). İktisadi büyüme [Economic growth]. Ankara, Turkey: İmaj Yayıncılık. google scholar
  • Willis, R. J. (1973). A new approach to the economic theory of fertility behavior. Journal of Political Economy, 81(2). 14-64. google scholar
  • White, M. J., Tagoe, E., Stiff, C., Adazul, K., & Smith, D. J. (2005). Urbanization and the fertility transition in Ghana. Population Research and Policy, 24, 59-83. google scholar
  • Winkelmann, R., & Zimmermann, K. F. (1995). Recent developments in count data modelling: theory and application. Journal of Economic Surveys, 9(1), 1-24. google scholar
  • Winkelmann, R., & Zimmermann, K. F. (1994). Count data models for demographic data. Mathematical Population Studies, 4(3), 205-221. google scholar
  • Wooldridge, J. M. (2002). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data. London: The MIT Press. google scholar
  • Yakar, M. (2013). XXI. Yüzyılın başında Türkiye>de iller arası göçlerin mekansal ve istatistiksel analizi [Spatial and statistical analysis of inter-provincial migrations in Turkey at the beginning of the XXIth century]. Zeitschrift für die Welt der Türken Journal of World of Turks, 5(3), 239-263. google scholar
Toplam 40 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Derya Bilgin 0000-0003-1384-8062

Sibel Selim 0000-0002-8464-588X

Yayımlanma Tarihi 29 Aralık 2021
Gönderilme Tarihi 26 Ocak 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Sayı: 64

Kaynak Göster

APA Bilgin, D., & Selim, S. (2021). Türkiye’de Göç ile Doğurganlık Arasındaki Mekânsal İlişkinin Adaptasyon Hipotezi Açısından Analizi. Journal of Economy Culture and Society(64), 47-72. https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2021-868861
AMA Bilgin D, Selim S. Türkiye’de Göç ile Doğurganlık Arasındaki Mekânsal İlişkinin Adaptasyon Hipotezi Açısından Analizi. Journal of Economy Culture and Society. Aralık 2021;(64):47-72. doi:10.26650/JECS2021-868861
Chicago Bilgin, Derya, ve Sibel Selim. “Türkiye’de Göç Ile Doğurganlık Arasındaki Mekânsal İlişkinin Adaptasyon Hipotezi Açısından Analizi”. Journal of Economy Culture and Society, sy. 64 (Aralık 2021): 47-72. https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2021-868861.
EndNote Bilgin D, Selim S (01 Aralık 2021) Türkiye’de Göç ile Doğurganlık Arasındaki Mekânsal İlişkinin Adaptasyon Hipotezi Açısından Analizi. Journal of Economy Culture and Society 64 47–72.
IEEE D. Bilgin ve S. Selim, “Türkiye’de Göç ile Doğurganlık Arasındaki Mekânsal İlişkinin Adaptasyon Hipotezi Açısından Analizi”, Journal of Economy Culture and Society, sy. 64, ss. 47–72, Aralık 2021, doi: 10.26650/JECS2021-868861.
ISNAD Bilgin, Derya - Selim, Sibel. “Türkiye’de Göç Ile Doğurganlık Arasındaki Mekânsal İlişkinin Adaptasyon Hipotezi Açısından Analizi”. Journal of Economy Culture and Society 64 (Aralık 2021), 47-72. https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2021-868861.
JAMA Bilgin D, Selim S. Türkiye’de Göç ile Doğurganlık Arasındaki Mekânsal İlişkinin Adaptasyon Hipotezi Açısından Analizi. Journal of Economy Culture and Society. 2021;:47–72.
MLA Bilgin, Derya ve Sibel Selim. “Türkiye’de Göç Ile Doğurganlık Arasındaki Mekânsal İlişkinin Adaptasyon Hipotezi Açısından Analizi”. Journal of Economy Culture and Society, sy. 64, 2021, ss. 47-72, doi:10.26650/JECS2021-868861.
Vancouver Bilgin D, Selim S. Türkiye’de Göç ile Doğurganlık Arasındaki Mekânsal İlişkinin Adaptasyon Hipotezi Açısından Analizi. Journal of Economy Culture and Society. 2021(64):47-72.