Projected Changes in High Temperatures in Coastal Tourism Destinations: A Case Study of the Turquoise Coast

Öz

The effects of climate change may manifest themselves in different ways, but when it comes to coastal tourism, extreme temperatures, which are the unavoidable consequences of climate change, come to the fore. The study examined the changes that extreme temperatures can make on major coastal tourism destinations by using such indices as hot summer days, tropical nights, combined hot days and tropical nights, and days with dangerous apparent temperature (> 40.6 °C). Under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, increases in these indices are expected for Antalya, Aydın, Balıkesir, İzmir, and Muğla on the Turquoise Coast in the near (2021-2050) and distant (2071-2100) future. The projections based on both scenarios indicate that there might be a rise in the number of hot summer days, tropical nights, and days exceeding the critical human thermal comfort conditions on the Turquoise Coast. Expected increases may reach the highest values under the pessimistic scenario at the end of the century. The increase in these indices caused by rising temperatures may adversely affect the tourism sector due to changes in tourism demands, destinations, and seasonal shifts.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Climate change
• summer tourism
• Turquoise Coast
• temperature extremes

Kıyı Turizmi Destinasyonlarında Yüksek Sıcaklıklarda Öngörülen Değişiklikler: Turkuaz Sahili örneği

Öz

İklim değişikliğinin etkileri farklı şekillerde kendini gösterebilir ancak konu kıyı turizmi olunca iklim değişikliğinin kaçınılmaz sonucu olan aşırı sıcaklıklar ön plana çıkmaktadır. Çalışmada sıcak yaz günleri, tropik geceler ve görünür sıcaklığın tehlikeli olduğu günler (> 40,6 °C) gibi indisler kullanılarak aşırı sıcaklıkların önemli kıyı turizm destinasyonlarında yapabileceği değişiklikler incelendi. Araştırmanın sonuçları RCP4.5 ve RCP8.5 senaryolarına göre yakın (2021-2050) ve uzak (2071-2100) gelecekte Turkuaz Sahili’nde yer alan Antalya, Aydın, Balıkesir, İzmir ve Muğla illeri için bu indislerde artışlar olacağını göstermektedir. Her iki senaryoya dayalı projeksiyonlar, Turkuaz Sahili’nde sıcak yaz günleri, tropik geceler ve insan için kritik termal konfor koşullarını aşan günlerin sayısında artış olabileceğini göstermektedir. Beklenen artışlar, kötümser senaryoda yüzyılın sonunda en yüksek değerlere ulaşabilir. Artan sıcaklıkların neden olduğu bu indislerdeki artış, turizm taleplerindeki, destinasyonlardaki değişiklikler ve mevsimsel değişimler nedeniyle turizm sektörünü olumsuz etkileyebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İklim değişikliği
• yaz turizmi
• Turkuaz Sahili
• aşırı sıcaklıklar

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