İklim Değişikliğinin Akdeniz Havzasındaki Orman Yangınlarına Etkisi

Öz

 İklim değişikliği ile birlikte son yıllarda Akdeniz Havzasında orman yangınlarının sayısında ciddi bir artış gözlenmiştir. Gerçekleşen bu yangınlar ormanlara doğal felaketlerden daha çok zarar vermektedir. Çıkan yangınların bir kısmı artan kurak hava koşulları nedeniyle doğal yollardan meydana gelirken, diğer bir kısmı ise ihmal ya da kasıt sonucunda oluşan ve büyük ölçüde iklim elemanlarının (sıcaklık, yağış, rüzgâr, nem vb.) etkisiyle büyüklüğü değişen yangınlar olarak ortaya çıkmaktadır. Orman yangınlarının öngörülmesinde kuraklık ile orman yangınları arasındaki ilişkiyi ele alan farklı indisler kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, olası orman yangınlarını öngörmek amacıyla yaygın olarak kullanılan yangın indislerinden; Haines İndisi (HI), Kanada Orman Yangın Hava İndisi (FWI), Keetch-Byram Kuraklık İndisi (KBDI), F İndisi detaylı olarak, Entegre Yangın İndisi (IFI), McArthur Mark 5 (Mk5) Orman ve Mark 4 (Mk4) Otlak Yangın Tehlike İndisi (McArthur Mark 5 (Mk5)), Fosberg Yangın Hava İndisi (FFWI), Nesterov İndisi (NI) ve Angström İndisi (AI) kısaca ele alınmıştır. İklim değişikliğinin orman yangınlarına etkisiyle ilgili yapılan çalışmalar kapsamında Antalya, Çanakkale ve Muğla Orman Bölge Müdürlüklerine bağlı orman arazilerinde 2008 ve 2009 yıllarında çıkan yangınlar Kanada Orman Yangın Hava İndisi (FWI) kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Sonuçlar 2008 ve 2009 yılı yangın verileri ile tutarlılık göstermiştir ve FWI değerleri bu yıllar için yangın riskini öngörmede başarılı bulunmuştur.

 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Türkiye,Akdeniz Havzası,Haines İndisi (HI),Kanada Orman Yangın Hava İndisi (FWI),Keetch-Byram Kuraklık İndisi (KBDI)

Kaynakça

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