Corruption, Growth, Expenditure and Investment in D-8 Countries: A Panel ARDL Analysis

Öz

Corruption is an important problem that is increasing at the global level and that countries need to solve. Corruption negatively affects the macroeconomic indicators of countries and increases their economic and social costs. This article explores the relationship between corruption and real GDP, total consumption expenditures, and total investments in D-8 member countries between 1990 and 2019. In the research, Panel PMG/ARDL method and Granger Causality analysis were applied to check the relationship between the variables. The results indicate that there is a significant positive relationship between Real GDP and corruption in D-8 countries in the long term. In addition, the Panel ARDL results suggest that there is a positive relationship between investments and corruption in the long and short run. In the short run, the relationship between corruption and the total investment is negative in Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Egypt, and Iran, and positive in Turkey and Bangladesh. The relationship between consumption expenditures and corruption is positive for Indonesia and Iran and negative for Turkey, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Egypt. On the other hand, Dumitrescu-Hurlin Panel causality analysis results show a causal relationship from corruption to real GDP.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Developing-8
• Corruption
• Economic Growth
• Total Investment
• Total Government Expenditures

D-8 ÜLKELERİNDE YOLSUZLUK, BÜYÜME, HARCAMA VE YATIRIM: PANEL ARDL ANALİZİ

Öz

Yolsuzluk, küresel düzeyde artan ve ülkelerin çözmesi gereken önemli bir sorundur. Yolsuzluk, ülkelerin makroekonomik göstergelerini olumsuz etkilemekte, ekonomik ve sosyal maliyetlerini artırmaktadır. Yolsuzlukla birlikte kamu kaynakları özel çıkarlar için kullanılmaktadır. Bu makale, 1990-2019 yılları arasında D-8 üyesi ülkelerde yolsuzluk ile reel GSYİH, toplam tüketim harcamaları ve toplam yatırımlar arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Sonuçlar, uzun vadede D-8 ülkelerinde Reel GSYİH ile yolsuzluk arasında önemli bir pozitif ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca Panel ARDL sonuçları, uzun ve kısa vadede yatırımlar ile yolsuzluk arasında pozitif bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Kısa vadede yolsuzluk ve toplam yatırım arasındaki ilişki Endonezya, Malezya, Nijerya, Pakistan, Mısır ve İran'da negatif, Türkiye ve Bangladeş'te ise pozitiftir. Tüketim harcamaları ile yolsuzluk arasındaki ilişki Endonezya ve İran için pozitif, Türkiye, Bangladeş, Malezya, Nijerya, Pakistan ve Mısır için negatiftir. Öte yandan Dumitrescu-Hurlin Panel nedensellik analiz sonuçları, yolsuzluktan reel GSYİH’ya doğru nedensellik ilişkisi göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• D-8 Ülkeleri
• Yolsuzluk
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Yatırım
• Tüketim Harcamaları.

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