D-8 ÜLKELERİNDE YOLSUZLUK, BÜYÜME, HARCAMA VE YATIRIM: PANEL ARDL ANALİZİ

Yıl 2022, , 55 - 68, 20.04.2022

Muzaffer Albayrak

https://doi.org/10.53280/jer.991629

Öz

Yolsuzluk, küresel düzeyde artan ve ülkelerin çözmesi gereken önemli bir sorundur. Yolsuzluk, ülkelerin makroekonomik göstergelerini olumsuz etkilemekte, ekonomik ve sosyal maliyetlerini artırmaktadır. Yolsuzlukla birlikte kamu kaynakları özel çıkarlar için kullanılmaktadır. Bu makale, 1990-2019 yılları arasında D-8 üyesi ülkelerde yolsuzluk ile reel GSYİH, toplam tüketim harcamaları ve toplam yatırımlar arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Sonuçlar, uzun vadede D-8 ülkelerinde Reel GSYİH ile yolsuzluk arasında önemli bir pozitif ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca Panel ARDL sonuçları, uzun ve kısa vadede yatırımlar ile yolsuzluk arasında pozitif bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Kısa vadede yolsuzluk ve toplam yatırım arasındaki ilişki Endonezya, Malezya, Nijerya, Pakistan, Mısır ve İran'da negatif, Türkiye ve Bangladeş'te ise pozitiftir. Tüketim harcamaları ile yolsuzluk arasındaki ilişki Endonezya ve İran için pozitif, Türkiye, Bangladeş, Malezya, Nijerya, Pakistan ve Mısır için negatiftir. Öte yandan Dumitrescu-Hurlin Panel nedensellik analiz sonuçları, yolsuzluktan reel GSYİH’ya doğru nedensellik ilişkisi göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

D-8 Ülkeleri, Yolsuzluk, Ekonomik Büyüme, Yatırım, Tüketim Harcamaları.

Destekleyen Kurum

Destekleyen kurum bulunmamaktadır.

Proje Numarası

-

Teşekkür

-

Corruption, Growth, Expenditure and Investment in D-8 Countries: A Panel ARDL Analysis

Öz

Corruption is an important problem that is increasing at the global level and that countries need to solve. Corruption negatively affects the macroeconomic indicators of countries and increases their economic and social costs. This article explores the relationship between corruption and real GDP, total consumption expenditures, and total investments in D-8 member countries between 1990 and 2019. In the research, Panel PMG/ARDL method and Granger Causality analysis were applied to check the relationship between the variables. The results indicate that there is a significant positive relationship between Real GDP and corruption in D-8 countries in the long term. In addition, the Panel ARDL results suggest that there is a positive relationship between investments and corruption in the long and short run. In the short run, the relationship between corruption and the total investment is negative in Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Egypt, and Iran, and positive in Turkey and Bangladesh. The relationship between consumption expenditures and corruption is positive for Indonesia and Iran and negative for Turkey, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Egypt. On the other hand, Dumitrescu-Hurlin Panel causality analysis results show a causal relationship from corruption to real GDP.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Developing-8, Corruption, Economic Growth, Total Investment, Total Government Expenditures

Proje Numarası

-

Kaynakça

• Acemoglu, D. & Verdier, T. (1998). Property rights, corruption and the allocation of talent: A general equilibrium approach. The Economic Journal, 108, 1381-1403.
• Albulescu C.T., Pépin D.& Tiwari A.K. (2014). "A Re-Examınatıon Of Real Interest Parıty In Ceecs Using 'Old' And 'New' Second Generation Panel Unit Root Tests," Working Papers Hal-01089380, Hal.
• Asiedu, E. & Freeman, J. (2009). The Effect of Corruption on Investment Growth: Evidence from Firms in Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Transition Countries. Review of Development Economics, 13/2, May, 200-214.
• Alfada, A. (2019). "Does Fiscal Decentralization Encourage Corruption in Local Governments? Evidence from Indonesia," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12/31-14.
• Aliyu, S. U. R. & Elijah, A. O. (2009). Corruption and Economic Growth in Nigeria: 1986-2007, MPRA Paper, No. 12504, 10/47, Forthcoming.
• Amin M, Ahmed A. & Zaman K. (2013). "The Relationship Between Corruption And Economic Growth In Pakistan- Looking Beyound The Incumbent," Oeconomics of Knowledge, Saphira Publishing House, 5/3, July, 15-45.
• Bandeira, A.C., García, F.G., & Silva, M.E. (2001). How does corruption hurt growth? Evidences about the effects of corruption on factors productivity and per capita income.
• Bayar, G. (2010). Türkiye'de yolsuzluk-ekonometrik bir inceleme. Erciyes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 1/28, 105-131.
• Beşel, F. & Savaşan, F. (2014). Türkiye'de Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Yolsuzluk ‐ Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 27, 73-86.
• Chun-Ping C. & Hao Y. (2017). "Environmental performance, corruption and economic growth: global evidence using a new data set," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49/50, January. 498-514.
• Cieślik, A. & Goczek, Ł. (2018). "Control of corruption, international investment, and economic growth – Evidence from panel data," World Development, Elsevier, 103(C), 323-335.
• Dedeoglu, D. & Piskin, A. (2014). A Dynamic Panel Study of Energy Consumption–Economic Growth Nexus: Evidence from the Former Soviet Union Countries (March 2014). OPEC Energy Review, Vol. 38, Issue 1, pp. 75-106.
• Farooq, A., Shahbaz, M., Arouri, M. E. & Teulon, F. (2013). Does corruption impede economic growth in Pakistan?
• Ghalwash, T. (2014). Corruption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Egypt. Modern Economy, 5, 1001-1009.
• Hoinaru R., Buda D., Borlea S. N.., Văidean L. ve Achim M. V. (2020), "The Impact of Corruption and Shadow Economy on the Economic and Sustainable Development. Do They “Sand the Wheels” or “Grease the Wheels”?," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, 12/2, January, 1-27.
• Koçbulut, Ö. & Altıntaş, H. (2016). İkiz Açıklar ve Feldstein-Horioka Hipotezi: OECD Ülkeleri Üzerine Yatay Kesit Bağımlılığı Altında Yapısal Kırılmalı Panel Eşbütünleşme Analizi. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 0 (48), 145-174
• Khouiled B. (2018). Tests of Homogeneity in Panel Data with EViews, MPRA Paper No. 101001.
• Huntington, S. (1968). Political Order in Changing Societies. Yale University Press, New Haven/ London,
• Khraief, N., Shahbaz, M., Heshmati, A. & Azam, M. (2016). "Are Unemployment Rates in OECD Countries Stationary? Evidence from Univariate and Panel Unit Root Tests," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 435, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS- Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
• Kuncoro A. (2012). "Corruption and Economic Growth in Indonesia," Economics and Finance in Indonesia, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, 50, March, 79-112.
• Kutlar A. & Doğanoğlu F. (2001). Türkiye’de 1980 Sonrası Yolsuzluklar, Kamu Yatırımları ve Büyüme Üzerine Bir Ekonometrik Çalışma, 5.Ulusal Ekonometri ve İstatistik Sempozyumu,10-12 Mayıs 2001.
• Langseth, P. (1999). Prevention, an Effective Tool to Reduce Corruption, Vienna.
• Leff, N. H. (1964). Economic Development Through Bureaucratic Corruption, American Behavioral Scientist, 8/3, 8-14.
• López R. & Mitra S. (2000). "Corruption, Pollution, and the Kuznets Environment Curve," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages, September, 137-150.
• Lučić, D, Radišić M. & Dobromirov D. (2016). Causality between corruption and the level of GDP, Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 29/1, 360-379.
• Lui, F. (1985). An equilibrium queuing model of bribery. Journal of Political Economy, 93/4, 760-781.
• Mallik, G. ve Saha S. (2016). Corruption and growth: a complex relationship. International Journal of Development, 15/2, 113-129.
• Mauro, P. (1998). “Corruption and the Composition of Government Expenditure,” Journal of Public Expenditure, 69263-279.
• Méon, P. G. & Weill, L. (2010). "Is Corruption an Efficient Grease?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38/3, March, 244-259.
• Menocal R. & Taxell, N. (2015). Why Corruption Matters: Understanding Causes, Effects, and How to Address Them. Evidence Paper. London UK: Department for International Development.
• Mishra, V, S, S. & Smyth, R. (2009). "Are fluctuations in energy consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from a panel of Pacific Island countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, 37/6, June, 2318-2326.
• Mistree D. & Dibley A. (2018). Corruption and the Paradox of Transparency, Working Paper.
• Murad, S. M. W. (2016). "Is the Exchange Rate of Bangladesh Mean Reverting? A Panel Unit Root Approach," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(2), pages 100-108, February.
• Odabaşı, Y. & Yarıkan, K. İ. (2019). Yolsuzluğun Aktarım Kanalları Yoluyla Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisinin KEİ Ülkeleri Açısından Değerlendirilmesi. Ekev Akademi Dergisi, 537 – 550.
• Ondo, A. (2017). Corruption and economic growth: The case of EMCCA. Theoretical Economics Letter, 7, 1292- 1305.
• Paldam, M. (2002). The cross-country pattern of corruption: Economics, culture and seesaw dynamic. European Journal of Political Economy, 18, 215-240.
• Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-Section Independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11, 105-127.
• Rose-Ackerman, S. (1999), Corruption and Government: Causes, Consequences, and Reform. Cambridge University Press.
• Shabbir, G. (2017). Corruption, Democracy and Economic Growth: Does Conditionality Matter? Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 55/1, 99-117.
• Song, C.Q., Chang, C.P. & Gong, Q. (2021). “Economic growth, corruption, and financial development: Global evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, 94(C), 822-830.
• Šumah Š. (2017). Corruption, Causes and Consequences In: Trade and Global Market. https://www.intechopen.com/books/trade-and-global-market/corruption-causes-and-consequences. 17.07.2021.
• Tanzi, V. & Davoodi, H. (1998). Corruption, Public Investment, and Growth. The Welfare State, Public Investment, and Growth, 41-60.
• TI (2020). What is Corruption? Retrieved from https://www.transparency.org/en/what-is-corruption. 22.07.2021.
• Treisman, D. (2007) What Have We Learned About the Causes of Corruption from Ten Years of Cross-National Empricial Research? Annual Review of Political Science, 1, pp. 211-244.
• Yun, C. H., Goh P. Y., Ping L. A., Yun. M. C. & Kin T. M. (2015). The Relationship Between Corruption and Economic Growth in Malaysia, Year Project, UTAR.
• Zaouali, A. (2014). Corruption’s and democracy’s effects on economic growth. International Journal of Business, Economics and Management, 1/8, (2014), 186-200.