EVALUATION OF THE IMPACT OF RAW MATERIAL AND PRODUCT PRICE FLUCTUATIONS ON ECONOMIC INDICATORS IN THE ACETONE PRODUCTION PROCESS USING THE BOX BEHNKEN OPTIMIZATION PROGRAM

Öz

Due to global concerns, energy commodity prices, including those of crude oil, coal, and natural gas, have fluctuated at times. These price fluctuations also cause volatility in petrochemical and crude oil-derived product prices. This study aims to evaluate the impact of raw material and product price fluctuations on economic indicators, such as payback period and net present value, in an acetone production plant under changing market conditions, using the box-behnken optimization program. The quadratic model successfully explains all variations in payback period and net present value in changing price ranges, and the ANOVA within the model is significant. According to the statistical test results for the quadratic model, the R-squared values are above the acceptable level. This shows that the model successfully predicts economic indicators across various price scenarios. It also reveals a nonlinear curvature in the 3D contour graphs and the derived regression equations, which affects the payback period and net present value. The total capital investment and operating costs for the facility, which has an annual acetone production capacity of 45,000 MT, are USD 18.832 million and USD 59.878 million, respectively. The acceptable payback period, net present value, and cost of acetone production are 2.98 years, USD 24.692 million, and USD 1330/MT, respectively. Monitoring changes in the economic indicators of the acetone production process provides valuable information for investors, process engineers, and researchers.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Acetone Production
• Box Behnken Optimization Program
• Payback Period
• Net Present Value
• Quadratic Model

Etik Beyan

No conflict of interest was declared by the authors.

Teşekkür

SuperPro Designer V15 was used for the simulation and economic evaluation of an acetone production plant. The author thanks the Department of Chemical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences, Süleyman Demirel University, for permission to use the program.

ASETON ÜRETİM PROSESİNDE HAMMADDE VE ÜRÜN FİYAT DALGALANMALARININ EKONOMİK GÖSTERGELER ÜZERİNE ETKİSİNİN BOX BEHNKEN OPTİMİZASYON PROGRAMI İLE DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ

Öz

Küresel endişelerden dolayı belirli dönemlerde, ham petrol, kömür ve doğalgaz gibi enerji emtia fiyatlarında dalgalanmalar olmuştur. Bu fiyat dalgalanmaları, ham petrolden türetilen petrokimyasal maddelerin ve türevlerinin fiyatlarında da oynaklığa neden olmaktadır. Bu çalışma; değişen piyasa koşullarında, aseton üretim tesisindeki hammadde ve ürün fiyat dalgalanmalarının ekonomik göstergeler olan geri ödeme süresi ve net bugünkü değer üzerine etkisini box behnken optimizasyon programı ile değerlendirilmesini amaçlamaktadır. Quadratic model, değişen fiyat aralıklarında, geri ödeme süresi ve net bugünkü değerlerindeki tüm varyasyonları başarılı bir şekilde açıklamakta ve model içinde ANOVA anlamlıdır. Quadratic model istatistik test sonuçlarına göre, çeşitli R-kare değerleri kabul edilebilir seviyenin üzerindedir. Bu da modelin, çeşitli fiyat senaryolarında, ekonomik göstergeleri tahmin etmede başarılı olduğunu göstermektedir. 3 boyutlu kontur grafiklerinde ve türetilen regresyon denklemlerinde görülen doğrusal olmayan bir eğriselliğin, ikili fiyat etkileşimlerinin geri ödeme süresi ve net bugünkü değer üzerine etkisinin varlığını da ortaya koymaktadır. Yıllık 45.000 MT aseton üretim kapasiteli tesisin toplam sermaye yatırımı ve işletme maliyeti, sırasıyla, 18,832 milyon USD ve 59,878 milyon USD’dir. Kabul edilebilir geri ödeme süresi, net bugünkü değer ve aseton üretim maliyeti ise, sırasıyla 2,98 yıl, 24,692 milyon USD ve 1330 USD/MT’dir. Aseton üretim prosesinin ekonomik göstergelerinin optimizasyon programı ile değişimini izlemek, yatırımcılar, proses mühendisleri ve araştırmacılar için önemli bilgiler sağlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Aseton Üretimi
• Box Behnken Optimizasyon Programı
• Geri Ödeme Süresi
• Net Bugünkü Değer
• Quadratic Model

Etik Beyan

Yazarlar tarafından herhangi bir çıkar çatışması beyan edilmemiştir.

Teşekkür

Aseton üretim tesisinin simülasyonu ve ekonomik değerlendirme için SuperPro Designer V15 kullanılmıştır. Yazar, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi, Mühendislik ve Doğa Bilimleri Fakültesi, Kimya Mühendisliği Bölümü’ne programın kullanım izni için teşekkür eder.

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