Siber ağların risk analizi: Saldırı-savunma ağaçlarıyla temellendirilmiş niceliksel bir yaklaşım

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 1, 113 - 125, 31.01.2024

Mehmet Ertem , İlker Ozcelık

https://doi.org/10.61112/jiens.1380821

Öz

Günümüzde siber saldırıların ve potansiyel zararlarının hızla artmasıyla birlikte, şirketler ve kurumlar için siber güvenliğin sağlanması hayati bir öneme sahip hale gelmiştir. Bu çalışmada, siber risklerin nicel bir analizi için saldırı-savunma ağaçları tabanlı bir yaklaşım geliştirilmiştir. Önerilen yaklaşım, siber tehditleri temsil eden düğümlerin risk seviyelerini ölçerek toplam riski hesaplamak için saldırı-savunma ağacını kullanmaktadır. Ayrıca, belirlenen savunma önlemlerinin alınması durumunda güncellenmiş risk değerini sistematik bir şekilde hesaplamaktadır. Geliştirilen siber risk analizi yaklaşımı, oltalama saldırılarına yönelik yaygın bir senaryoya uygulanmış ve çeşitli savunma stratejileri altında siber risk değerleri hesaplanmıştır. Örneğin, savunma önlemleri alınmadığı durumda siber risk değeri 0,28392 olarak hesaplanırken, teknik savunma önlemlerinin (antivirüs, IDS, erişim denetimi, web içerik sınırlandırma ve spam kontrolü) alınması durumunda risk değeri yaklaşık %97,5 azalarak 0,00721 seviyesine düşmektedir. Teknik savunma önlemlerine ek olarak kullanıcı eğitimi de verildiğinde risk değerindeki azalma %98'e ulaşmaktadır. Sadece bireysel kullanıcılara yönelik temel savunma önlemlerinin (antivirüs ve spam kontrolü) alınması durumunda risk değerindeki azalma ise %90 civarında kalmaktadır. Örnek çalışma üzerinden elde edilen bu sonuçlar, önerilen yaklaşımın doğruluğunu ve önemini kanıtlamaktadır. Geliştirilen yaklaşımın siber güvenlik stratejilerinin belirlenmesi yolunda katkıları tartışma bölümünde detaylandırılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Siber risk analizi, Saldırı savunma ağacı, Siber risk yönetimi, Kaynak tahsisi eniyileme

Risk analysis of cyber networks: a quantitative approach based on attack-defense trees

Öz

With the rapid increase in cyber-attacks and potential damage in today's world, ensuring cybersecurity has become of paramount importance for companies and organizations. In this study, an approach based on attack-defense trees has been developed for the quantitative analysis of cyber risks. The proposed methodology utilizes attack-defense trees to measure the risk levels of nodes representing cyber threats and systematically calculate the total risk when specific defense measures are implemented. The developed cyber risk analysis approach has been applied to a common scenario involving phishing attacks, and cyber risk values have been calculated under various defense strategies. For instance, when no defense measures are taken, the cyber risk value is calculated as 0.28392. However, when technical defense measures such as antivirus software, intrusion detection systems (IDS), access control, web content filtering, and spam control are implemented, the risk value significantly decreases by approximately 97.5% to 0.00721. Furthermore, incorporating user training results in a 98% reduction in risk value. Implementing basic defense measures targeting individual users, such as antivirus and spam control, leads to a reduction of around 90% in the risk value. The accuracy and significance of the proposed approach are demonstrated through the results obtained from this sample study. The contributions of the developed approach to determining cybersecurity strategies are detailed in the discussion section.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Cyber risk analysis, Attack defense tree, Cyber risk management, Optimal resource allocation

Kaynakça

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