Russia's Expanding Influence in the Arctic: A Comprehensive Analysis of the New Great Game in the North Pole

Yıl 2024, Sayı: 11, 1 - 27, 30.08.2024

Guner Ozkan Shahzada Rahim Abbas

https://doi.org/10.69494/jirps.1454005

Öz

The undertaken research investigates the contemporary demonstration of the “Great Game” in the North Pole by considering Russia’s expanding pivot towards the region. In the last two decades, the Arctic region has undergone significant changes due to anthropogenic climate change. The rising global temperatures and the rapid ice-melting in the region are opening up new opportunities for the great powers including Russia and NATO members for maritime trade and economic opportunities. Unlike the NATO neighbours, the Russian involvement in the Arctic region both in terms of military and economic investment is unprecedented. By employing a theoretical framework based on the Realist School of International Relations, specifically the theory of geopolitics, this study analyzes the various dimensions of Russia's involvement in the Arctic. The research examines Russia's two major strategic objectives: balancing geopolitical competition with aspirations for cooperation and assessing its implications for economic, geopolitical, and security landscapes. By carrying out a comprehensive investigation of Russia's diplomatic initiatives, strategic manoeuvres and military presence, the study aims to explore the motivations behind its expansion to the Arctic region. Finally, the research investigates the consequences of the Russian rapid expansion towards the Arctic region for geopolitical affairs and regional stability by emphasizing the sustainable security architecture to prevent a geopolitical turf between Russia and its NATO neighbours.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Great Game, Arctic Security, NATO, Russia, Sustainable Security Architecture (SSA), UNCLOS

Etik Beyan

The author declares that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could influence the work reported in this paper.

Destekleyen Kurum

N/A

Teşekkür

Thank you in advance for consideration.

Kaynakça

• Çiftci, N., & Ali, Y. (2014). Arktika Bölgesi'nin Siyasal Önemi ve Siyasal ve Hukuksal Statüsünün Karşılaştırmalı Değerlendirmesi. Muğla Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 31, 1-16.
• Antrim, C. L. (2010). The Next Geographical Pivot: The Russian Arctic in the Twenty-first Century. Naval War College Review, 63(3), 14-38.
• Antrim, C. L. (2011). The Russian Arctic in the Twenty-First Century. In J. Kraska, Arctic Security in an Age of Climate Change (pp. 107-128). Cambridge : Cambridge University Press .
• Arctic Portal . (2010, December 1). Foundations Of The Russian Federation’s State Policy In The Arctic Until 2020 And Beyond . Retrieved from Arctic Portal: https://icr.arcticportal.org/index.php?option=com_content&%20view=article&id=%201791%3
• Arctic Russia. (2020, March 5). Foundations of the Russian national Arctic policy until 2035 approved. Retrieved from Arctic Russia: https://arctic-russia.ru/en/news/foundations-of-the-russian-national-arctic-policy-until-2035-approved/
• Auger, R. (2018). On the "Instrumentalisation" of Archaeology as a Tool of Colonialism. Canadian Journal of Archaeology / Journal Canadien d'Archéologie,, 42(1), 165-171.
• Bajraktarević, A. (2010). Arctic And Antarctic: Two Poles – Different Scores. Addleton Academic Publishers(2), 165-232.
• Belkin, P. (2008). The European Union's Energy Security Challenges. Connections, 7 (1), 76-102. Blunden, M. (2009). The New Problem of Arctic Stability. Survival, 51(5), 121-142.
• Boulègue, M. (2019). Russia’s Military Posture in the Arctic: Managing Hard Power in a ‘Low Tension’ Environment. London : Chatham House.
• Breum, M. (2019, December 13). The deep roots of Russia’s Arctic ambitions — and what they mean for future stability in the region. Retrieved from Arctic Today: https://www.arctictoday.com/the-deep-roots-of-russias-arctic-ambitions-and-what-they-mean-for-future-stability-in-the-region/
• Cerbu, V., & Cioranu, V. (2020). The Arctic - A Disputed Territory, Objective of a "New Geopolitical Great Game". Romanian Military Thinking(1), 98-121.
• Chaturvedi, S. (2020). The Asian Factor in the Arctic Connectivity: Ecologu, Geopolitics and Social . In C. Y. Woon, & K. Dodds, Observing’ the Arctic: Asia in the Arctic Council and Beyond (pp. 82–102). Cheltenhem: Edward Elgar Publishers.
• Costa, B. F. (1880). Arctic Exploration. Journal of the American Geographical Society of New York,, 12, 159-192.
• Depledge, D. (2020). NATO and the Arctic: The Need for a New Approach. The RUSI Journal, 165(5), 80-90.
• Depledge, D., & Kennedy-Pipe, C. (2018). The Changing World of the Arctic. Geography, 103(3), 154-161.
• Dodds, K. (2013). The Ilulissat Declaration (2008): The Arctic States, "Law of the Sea," and Arctic Ocean. The SAIS Review of International Affairs, 33(2), 45-55.
• Doel, R. E., Friedman, R. M., Lajus, J., Sörlin, S., & Wråkberg, U. (2014). Strategic Arctic science: national interests in building natural knowledge – interwar era through the Cold War. Journal of Historical Geography, 44, 60-80.
• Done, C.-G. (2020). The Arctic Security System – The Stakes in the Battle for Power. Centrul tehnic-editorial al armatei, 6, 226-237.
• Downs, E., Henderson, J., Herberg, M. E., Itoh, S., O’Sullivan, M. L., Skalamera, M., & Soylu, C. (2018). The Emerging Russia-Asia Energy Nexus. Seattle: The National Bureau of Asian Research.
• Ebinger, C. K., & Zambetakis, E. (2009). The geopolitics of Arctic melt. International Affairs, 85(6), 1215–1232.
• EIA. (2012, January 20). Arctic oil and natural gas resources. Retrieved from U.S. Energy Information Administration: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=4650
• Eklund, N., & Watt, L.-M. v. (2017). Refracting (geo)political choices in the Arctic. The Polar Journal, 7(1), 86-103.
• Gabrielson, R., & Śliwa, Z. (2014). Arctic – the new “Great Game” or peaceful cooperation. Security and Defence Quarterly, 4(3), 87-119.
• Gavrilov, V. (2020). Russian legislation on the Northern Sea Route navigation: scope and trends. The Polar Journal, 10(2), 273-284.
• Godzimirski, J., & Sergunin, A. (2020). Russian Expert and Official Geopolitical Narratives on the Arctic: Decoding Topical and Paradigmatic DNA. Arctic Review on Law and Politics, 11, 22-46.
• Godzimirski, J., & Sergunin, A. (2020). Russian Expert and Official Geopolitical Narratives on the Arctic: Decoding Topical and Paradigmatic DNA. Arctic Review on Law and Politics, 11, 22-46.
• Grajewski, N. B. (2017). Russia’s Great Power Assertion: Status-Seeking in the Arctic. St Antony's International Review, 13(1), 141-163.
• Hall, A. R. (1955). Mackinder and the Course of Events. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 45(2), 109-126.
• Hansen-Magnusson, H. (2019). the end of the Cold War, and the breakup of the Soviet Union shifted the geopolitical landscape of the Arctic exploration. Cooperation and Conflict, 54(4), 466-487.
• Heininen, L. (2018). Arctic Geopolitics From Classical To Critical Approach – Importance Of Immaterial Factors . Geography, Environment, Sustainability, 171-186.
• Ingimundarson, V. (2014). Managing a contested region: the Arctic Council and the politics of Arctic governance. The Polar Journal, 4(1), 183-198.
• Keil, K. (2013). The role of arctic hydrocarbons for future energy security. Seoul: NAPSNet.
• Keil, K. (2014). The Arctic: A new region of conflict? The case of oil and gas. Cooperation and Conflict, 49(2), 162-190.
• Kikkert, P., & Lackenbauer, P. W. (2020). The Militarization of the Arctic to 1990. In K. S. Coates, & C. Holroyd, The Palgrave Handbook of Arctic Policy and Politics (pp. 487–505). Cham. : Palgrave Macmillan.
• Knecht, S., & Keil, K. (2013). Arctic geopolitics revisited: spatialising governance in the circumpolar North. The Polar Journal, 3(1), 178-203.
• Koshkin, V. A. (2022). Delimitation of the Continental Shelf in the Central Arctic Ocean: Is It Possible Nowadays? Arctic Review on Law and Politics, 13, 393–406.
• Kremlin. (2020, October 26). Strategy for Developing the Russian Arctic Zone and Ensuring National Security until 2035 approved. Retrieved from Kremlin.ru/en: http://www.en.kremlin.ru/acts/news/64274
• Lagutina, M. L. (2019). Russia's Arctic Policy in the Twenty-First Century: National and International Dimensions. London: Lexington Books .
• Laruelle, M. (2009). Russia’s Arctic Ambitions: Transforming the “Cost of Cold”. Institute for Security and Development Policy, 7, 1-3.
• Laruelle, M. (2012). Larger, Higher, Farther North … Geographical Metanarratives of the Nation in Russia. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 53(5), 557-574.
• Laruelle, M. (2013). In Search of Borea, Hopes, Hipes and Realpolitik in Russia's Arctic Strategy. Moscow : arcticandnorth.ru.
• Laruelle, M. (2014). Resource, state reassertion and international recognition: locating the drivers of Russia’s Arctic policy. The Polar Journal, 4(2), 253-270.
• Lucia, V. D., & Nickels, P. P. (2020). Reflecting on the Role of the Arctic Council vis-à-vis a Future International Legally Binding Instrument on Biodiversity in Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction. Arctic Review on Law and Politics, 11, 189-214.
• Luzin, G. P., Pretes, M., & Vasiliev, V. V. (1994). The Kola Peninsula: Geography, History and Resources. Arctic, 47(1), 1-15.
• MacDonald, A. P. (2021). China-Russian cooperation in the Arctic: A cause for concern for the Western Arctic States? Canadian Foreign Policy Journal, 27(2), 194-210.
• Mahan, A. T., & Sachsman, D. B. (2003). The Problem of Asia: Its Effect Upon International Politics. New York: Transaction Publisher.
• Marshall, D. W. (1986). Canada's experience of appraising the Beaufort Sea oil project. Project Appraisal, 1(1), 32-38.
• Medvedev, D. (2008, September 28). Osnovy Gosudarstvennoi Politiki Rossiiskoi Federatsii v Arktike na Period do 2020 Goda I Dal’neishuiu Perspektivu [Foundations of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Arctic up to and Beyond 2020. Retrieved from Russian Govenment : http://www.rg.ru/2009/03/30/arktika-osnovy-dok.html
• Michel, U. (2011). Global Warming and Security: The Security Implications for NATO and the EU of a Melting Polar Ice Cap in the High North. Connections, 10(4), 11-50.
• Moe, A. (2020). A new Russian policy for the Northern sea route? State interests, key stakeholders and economic opportunities in changing times. The Polar Journal, 10(2), 209-227.
• Molenaar, E. J. (2017). The Arctic, the Arctic Council, and the Law of the Sea. In R. C. Beckman, T. Henriksen, K. D. Kraabel, E. J. Molenaar, & J. A. Roach, Governance of Arctic Shipping (pp. 24–67). London: Brill.
• NATO. (2017, September 6). NATO and the Security in the Arctic. Retrieved from NATO parliamentary Assembly: https://www.nato-pa.int/document/2017-nato-and-security-arctic-connolly-report-172-pctr-17-e-rev1-fin
• Osherenko, G., & Young, O. R. (1989). The Age of the Arctic: Hot Conflicts and Cold Realities. London : Cambridge University Press.
• Parker, N. (2010). Empire as a Geopolitical Figure. Geopolitics, 15(1), 109-132.
• Pilyasov, A. N., Kuleshov, V. V., & Seliverstov, V. E. (2015). Arctic policy in an era of global instability: Experience and lessons for Russia. Regional Research of Russia, 5, 10–22.
• Piskunova, E. (2010). Russia in the Arctic. International Journal, 5(1), 852-864.
• Rainwater, S. (2013). Race to the North: China’s Arctic Strategy and Its Implications. Naval War College Review, 66(2), 62-82.
• Rashmi, B. (2019). China in the Arctic: Interests, Strategy and Implications. Delhi: Institute of Chinese Studies.
• Rauhala, E. (2023, July 17). An Arctic ‘Great Game’ as NATO allies and Russia face off in far north. Retrieved from New York Times : https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/17/an-arctic-great-game-nato-allies-russia-face-off-far-north/
• Roberts, K. (2015). Why Russia will play by the rules in the Arctic. Canadian Foreign Policy Journal, 21(2), 112-128.
• Roller, D. W. (2005). Through the Pillars of Herakles: Greco-Roman Exploration of the Atlantic. London & New York : Routledge.
• Rosamond, A. B. (2015). The Kingdom of Denmark and the Arctic. In H. o. Arctic, Leif Christian Jensen; Geir Hønneland (pp. 501–516). Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing.
• Rothwell, D. R. (2013). The Law of the Sea and Arctic Governance. Proceedings: of the ASIL Annual Meeting, 107, 272-275.
• Russian Government. (2013, Feburary 20). Strategy for Development of the Russian Federation’s Arctic Zone and Ensuring National Security until 2020. Retrieved from mid.ru: https://www.research.kobe-u.ac.jp/gsics-pcrc/sympo/20160728/documents/Keynote/Russian%20Arctic%20strategy%202013.pdf
• Sergunin, A. (2016). Russia in the Arctic: Hard or Soft Power? Stuttgart: Ibidem Press.
• Sergunin, A., & Konyshev, V. (2014). Russia in search of its Arctic strategy: between hard and soft power? The Polar Journal, 14(1), 69-87.
• Sergunin, A., & Konyshev, V. (2017). Russian military strategies in the Arctic: change or continuity? European Security, 26(2), 171-189.
• Skelton, R. (2017). The Cabot Voyages and Bristol Discovery under Henry VII. London: Routledge.
• Staun, J. (2017). Russia's strategy in the Arctic: cooperation, not confrontation. Polar Record, 53(3), 314-332.
• Tabachnik, A., & Miller, B. (2020). In search of a US grand strategy: considering resurgent Russia. International Politics, 58, 278–300.
• Tass. (2014, December 1). Russia’s Defense Ministry establishes Arctic Strategic Command. Retrieved from Tass Newss: https://tass.com/russia/764428
• Têtu, P.-L., Lasserre, F., Pelletier, S., & Dawson, J. (2019). Sovereignty’ over submerged cultural heritage in the Canadian Arctic waters: case study from the Franklin expedition wrecks (1845-48). Polar Geography, 42(2), 71-88.
• Toker, S. (2014). United States and Russia in the Arctic energy future: Rivalry or harmony? Izmir : İzmir Ekonomi Üniversitesi.
• UN. (2001, February 21). Convention of the Law of Sea . Retrieved from United Nations: https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf
• Wegge, N. (2020). Arctic Security Strategies and the North Atlantic States. Arctic Review on Law and Politics, 11, 360-382.
• Wheatley, K. (2009). The Arctic in the Quarterly Review. European Romantic Review, 20(4), 465-490.
• White House . (2015, January 21). Executive Order --- Enhancing Coordination of National Efforts in the Arctic. Retrieved from Whitehouse.Gov: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/01/21/executive-order-enhancing-coordination-national-efforts-Arctic
• Wilhelmsen, J., & Gjerde, K. L. (2017). Norway and Russia in the Arctic: New Cold War Contamination? Arctic Review on Law and Politics, 9, 382-407.
• Young, O. R. (2010). Arctic Governance - Pathways to the Future. Arctic Review on Law and Politics, 1(2), 164-185.
• Østhagen, A. (2019). The Arctic security region: misconceptions and contradictions. Polar Geography, 44(1), 55-74.
• Zorn, S. (2023). Tracking the Franklin Expedition of 1845: The Facts and Mysteries of the Northwest Passage. Jefferson, North Carolina : Mc Farland & Company .