Long Years Precipitation Parameters by CLIGEN Precipitation Model in Tokat Province

Öz

In this study, by using CLIGEN, between 2005-2015 long years historical daily

precipitation records were simulated from Tokat weather stations. The basic statistics of daily, monthly

and annual precipitations (mean, standart deviation, skewness) were compared with those derived from

the observed and generated by CLIGEN weather series. The results showed no significant difference

between observed and simulated values for rainfall parameters. Especially, CLIGEN estimations tend to

underestimate the observed data in spring and winter months. CLIGEN exhibited higher performance in

simulation of monthly and annual rainfall.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• CLIGEN,Climate variability,Tokat precipitations

Tokat İlin’deki Uzun Yıllar Yağış Parametrelerinin CLIGEN Yağış Modeli ile Değerlendirilmesi

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Tokat meteoroloji istasyonundan 2005-2015 yıllarına ait günlük yağış verileri,

CLIGEN yağış modeli kullanılarak tahmin edilmiştir. Gözlenen ve tahmin edilen günlük, aylık ve yıllık

yağışların istatistiksel analizleri (ortalama, standart sapma, ve çarpıklık) karşılaştırılmıştır. Elde edilen

sonuçlardan, gözlenen ve tahmin edilen yağış verileri arasındaki ilişkinin istatistiksel olarak önemsiz

olduğu görülmüştür. CLIGEN özellikle ilkbahar ve kış aylarında günlük yağış verilerini gözlenen

değerin hafif altında tahmin etme eğilimdedir. Yıllık toplam ortalama ve aylık ortalama yağışları ise

tahmin etmede oldukça yüksek bir performans göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• CLIGEN,İklimsel değişiklikler,Tokat yağış

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