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TÜRKİYE’DE ULUSLARARASI GÖÇ AKIMLARI: ÇEKİM MODELİ ANALİZİ

Yıl 2019, , 401 - 412, 30.10.2019
https://doi.org/10.15637/jlecon.6.024

Öz

Küresel siyasi ve iktisadi gelişmeler sonucunda
uluslararası göçün önemi giderek artmaktadır. Nitekim uluslararası göç
nedeniyle hem göç alan, hem de göç veren ülkelerin sosyal, iktisadi ve
demografik yapılarında değişimler gözlenmektedir. Bu bağlamda göç üzerine
yapılan çalışmalarda gerek nitel gerekse nicel anlamda gelişmeler söz
konusudur. Türkiye bulunduğu stratejik konum itibariyle göç hareketliliğinin
yüksek olduğu bir ülke durumundadır. Özellikle komşu ülkelerdeki yapısal
değişiklikler ve siyasi karışıklıklardan dolayı son dönemlerde Türkiye’de ciddi
göç akımları gerçekleşmekte ve tartışma güncelliğini korumaktadır. Bu bağlamda
çalışmada 2016-2017 dönemi için Türkiye’nin seçilmiş 83 ülke ile arasındaki göç
hareketliliği panel çekim modeli ile analiz edilmiştir. Model Poisson Pseudo
Maximum Likelihood tahmincisi ile tahmin edilmiş; ülkeler arası uzaklık ve
kaynak ülke GSYİH düzeyinin göç akımlarını azaltan faktörler olduğu
belirlenmiştir. Hedef ülkenin GSYİH düzeyi, hedef ve kaynak ülke nüfusu göç akımlarını
tetiklemektedir

Kaynakça

  • AITKEN, N. (1973) The Effects of the EEC and EFTA on European Trade: A Temporal Cross-Section Analysis. The American Economic Review, 63(5): 881–892.
  • BATRA, A. (2004) India’s Global Trade Potential: The Gravity Model Approach Working Paper, 151: 1-43.
  • BORJAS, G. J. (2003). The Labor Demand Curve is Downward Sloping: Reexamining the Impact of Immigration on the Labor Market. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(4), 1335-1374.
  • CARD, D., (2009). Immigrant Inflows, Native Outflows, and the Local Market Impacts of Higher Immigration. Journal of Labor Economics, 19(1), 22-64.
  • DİNÇER, G. (2014). Turkey’s Rising Imports from BRICS: A Gravity Model Approach. MPRA No 61979.
  • DİNÇER, G. ve Muratoğlu Y. (2014). Türkiye’den OECD Ülkelerine Gerçekleşen Göçün Çekim Modeli ile Analizi. MPRA Paper No. 62201.
  • FRIEDBERG, R. M. & Hunt J. (1995).The Impact of Immigrants on Host Country Wages, Employment and Growth. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(2), 23-44.
  • GÖÇ İDARESİ, (2018). Türkiye ve Göç. http://www.goc.gov.tr/files/files/goc_tasar%C 4%B1m_icler.pdf
  • GREENWOOD, M. J. (1975). Research on Internal Migration in the United States: A Survey. Journal of Economic Literature, 13(2), 197-433.
  • HELLIWELL, J. F. (1997). National Borders, Trade and Miration. Pacific Economic Review, 2(3), 165-185.
  • İÇDUYGU, A. ve Aksel D. B. (2012). Türkiye’de Düzensiz Göç. Ankara: Uluslararası Göç Örgütü Yayınları.
  • KAPKARA, S., ve KOÇ. S, (2016). Yükselen Ekonomiler Arasındaki Ticaret Hacminin Çekim Modeli İle Analizi. Ege Akademik Bakış, 16(3), 477-490.
  • KAREMERA, D., Oguledo, W. I., and Bobby, D. (2000). A Gravity Model Analysis of International Migration to North America. Applied Economics, 32(13), 1745-1755.
  • KIM, K., and Cohen, J. E. (2010). Determinants of International Migration Flows to and from Industrialized Countries: A Panel Data Approach Beyond Gravity. International Migration Review, 44(4), 899-932.
  • LEWER, J. J., & Van Den Berg, H., (2007). A Gravity Model of Immigration. Economics Letters, 99, 164-167.
  • NEUMAYER, E. (2005). Bogus Refugees? The Determinants of Asylum Migration to Western Europe. International Studies Quarterly, 49, 389-409.
  • OECD, (2018). International Migration Outlook 2018. https://doi.org/10.1787/migr_outlook-2018-en.
  • PERRUCHOUD, R. (2013). Göç Terimleri Sözlüğü 2. Baskı. International Organization of Migration Publications. http://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/iml31_turkish_2nd edition .pdf
  • PIETRZAK, M. B., Drzewoszewska, N., and Wilk, J., (2012). The Analysis of Interregioanl Migrations in Poland in the 2004-2010 Using Panel Gravity Model. Dynamic Econometric Models, 12, 111-122.
  • RAMOS, R. and Surinach J., (2016). A Gravity Model of Migration Between the ENC and the EU. Journal of Economic and Social Geography, 108(1), 21-35.
  • RAVENSTEIN, E. G., (1885). The Laws of Migration. Journal of the Statistical Society of London, 48(2), 167-235.
  • RAVENSTEIN, E. G., (1889). The Laws of Migration. Journal of the Royal Society, 52(2), 241-305.
  • ROGERS, A., (2006). Demographic Modelling of the Geography of Migration and Population. Geographical Analysis, 40(3), 276-296.
  • SILVA, J. S. and Teneyro S., (2006). The Log of Gravity. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 88(4), 641-658.
  • YILDIZ, A. G. (2016). The European Union’s Immigration Policy: Managing Migration in Turkey and Morocco. London: Palgrave Macmillan.

INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION FLOWS IN TURKEY: A GRAVITY MODEL ANALYSIS

Yıl 2019, , 401 - 412, 30.10.2019
https://doi.org/10.15637/jlecon.6.024

Öz

International
migration has recently become more important by the global political and
economic developments. The social, economic and demographic structures of the
countries for which destination and origin can change because of international
migration. In this context the papers that analyze migration developed
quantitatively and qualitatively. The migration movements in Turkey
dramatically high as a consquence of strategic position of the country.
Especially the structural changes in neighbor countries lead to serious
migration movements in Turkey and discussion maintain current status. In this
context, this paper analyzes migration movements between Turkey and other 83
countries in period of 2016-2017 with panel gravity model. The model is
estimated with the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimator; It is
determined that the distance between countries and the origin country GDP are
factors that reduce migration flows. GDP level of the destination country and
the origin country population are triggering migration flows.

Kaynakça

  • AITKEN, N. (1973) The Effects of the EEC and EFTA on European Trade: A Temporal Cross-Section Analysis. The American Economic Review, 63(5): 881–892.
  • BATRA, A. (2004) India’s Global Trade Potential: The Gravity Model Approach Working Paper, 151: 1-43.
  • BORJAS, G. J. (2003). The Labor Demand Curve is Downward Sloping: Reexamining the Impact of Immigration on the Labor Market. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(4), 1335-1374.
  • CARD, D., (2009). Immigrant Inflows, Native Outflows, and the Local Market Impacts of Higher Immigration. Journal of Labor Economics, 19(1), 22-64.
  • DİNÇER, G. (2014). Turkey’s Rising Imports from BRICS: A Gravity Model Approach. MPRA No 61979.
  • DİNÇER, G. ve Muratoğlu Y. (2014). Türkiye’den OECD Ülkelerine Gerçekleşen Göçün Çekim Modeli ile Analizi. MPRA Paper No. 62201.
  • FRIEDBERG, R. M. & Hunt J. (1995).The Impact of Immigrants on Host Country Wages, Employment and Growth. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(2), 23-44.
  • GÖÇ İDARESİ, (2018). Türkiye ve Göç. http://www.goc.gov.tr/files/files/goc_tasar%C 4%B1m_icler.pdf
  • GREENWOOD, M. J. (1975). Research on Internal Migration in the United States: A Survey. Journal of Economic Literature, 13(2), 197-433.
  • HELLIWELL, J. F. (1997). National Borders, Trade and Miration. Pacific Economic Review, 2(3), 165-185.
  • İÇDUYGU, A. ve Aksel D. B. (2012). Türkiye’de Düzensiz Göç. Ankara: Uluslararası Göç Örgütü Yayınları.
  • KAPKARA, S., ve KOÇ. S, (2016). Yükselen Ekonomiler Arasındaki Ticaret Hacminin Çekim Modeli İle Analizi. Ege Akademik Bakış, 16(3), 477-490.
  • KAREMERA, D., Oguledo, W. I., and Bobby, D. (2000). A Gravity Model Analysis of International Migration to North America. Applied Economics, 32(13), 1745-1755.
  • KIM, K., and Cohen, J. E. (2010). Determinants of International Migration Flows to and from Industrialized Countries: A Panel Data Approach Beyond Gravity. International Migration Review, 44(4), 899-932.
  • LEWER, J. J., & Van Den Berg, H., (2007). A Gravity Model of Immigration. Economics Letters, 99, 164-167.
  • NEUMAYER, E. (2005). Bogus Refugees? The Determinants of Asylum Migration to Western Europe. International Studies Quarterly, 49, 389-409.
  • OECD, (2018). International Migration Outlook 2018. https://doi.org/10.1787/migr_outlook-2018-en.
  • PERRUCHOUD, R. (2013). Göç Terimleri Sözlüğü 2. Baskı. International Organization of Migration Publications. http://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/iml31_turkish_2nd edition .pdf
  • PIETRZAK, M. B., Drzewoszewska, N., and Wilk, J., (2012). The Analysis of Interregioanl Migrations in Poland in the 2004-2010 Using Panel Gravity Model. Dynamic Econometric Models, 12, 111-122.
  • RAMOS, R. and Surinach J., (2016). A Gravity Model of Migration Between the ENC and the EU. Journal of Economic and Social Geography, 108(1), 21-35.
  • RAVENSTEIN, E. G., (1885). The Laws of Migration. Journal of the Statistical Society of London, 48(2), 167-235.
  • RAVENSTEIN, E. G., (1889). The Laws of Migration. Journal of the Royal Society, 52(2), 241-305.
  • ROGERS, A., (2006). Demographic Modelling of the Geography of Migration and Population. Geographical Analysis, 40(3), 276-296.
  • SILVA, J. S. and Teneyro S., (2006). The Log of Gravity. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 88(4), 641-658.
  • YILDIZ, A. G. (2016). The European Union’s Immigration Policy: Managing Migration in Turkey and Morocco. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
Toplam 25 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Selçuk Koç 0000-0001-7451-2699

Ali Rıza Solmaz Bu kişi benim 0000-0001-8347-1593

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Ekim 2019
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2019

Kaynak Göster

APA Koç, S., & Solmaz, A. R. (2019). TÜRKİYE’DE ULUSLARARASI GÖÇ AKIMLARI: ÇEKİM MODELİ ANALİZİ. Journal of Life Economics, 6(4), 401-412. https://doi.org/10.15637/jlecon.6.024