Seismic Hazard Analysis: Theory and Application

Öz

In this study, the main principles of deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analyses are given. A computer program was written using the principles of probabilistic approach. The program is aimed at computing return periods for peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA) and the probability of exceedance of PGA for certain time periods. An example problem is presented to help the user better understand the program.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Seismic Hazard Analysis
• Deterministic
• Probabilistic

Sismik Tehlike Analizi: Teori ve Uygulama

Öz

Bu çalışmada deterministik ve probabilistik olarak ikiye ayrılan sismik tehlike analizinin esasları verilmiştir. Probabilistik yaklaşım kullanılarak bir bilgisayar programı yazılmıştır. Programda maksimum yer ivmesine karşılık gelen dönüş periyodları ile belirli bir zaman dilimi içerisinde maksimum yer ivmesi değerlerinin aşılma ihtimali hesaplanmaktadır. Programın kolay anlaşılmasını sağlamak amacıyla bir de örnek problem sunulmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sismik Tehlike Analizi
• Deterministik
• Probabilistik

Kaynakça

1. Algermissen, S.T., Perkins, D.M., Thenhaus, P.C., Hanson, S.L., and Bender, B.L., 1982, Probabilistic estimates of maximum acceleration and velocity in rock in the contiguous United States: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report, 82-1033.
2. Anderson, J.G., 1978, Program EQRISK: A computer program for finding uniform risk spectra of strong earthquake ground motion: Report, U. of Southern California, Dept, of Civil Engineering.
3. Araya,R. and Der Kiureghian, A., 1988, Seismic hazard analysis; improved models, uncertainties and sensitivities. Earthquake Engineering Research Center, Report No. UCB/EERC-90/11, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 155 p.
4. Bender, B. and Perkins, D.M., 1987, SEIRISK III: A computer program for seismic hazard estimation: U.S. Geol. Surv. Bull. No.1772.
5. Campbell, K.W.,1985, Strong motion attenuation relations a ten-year perspective: Earthquake Spectra, 1(4),759-804.
6. Chiang, W-L., Guidi, G.A., Mortgart, C.P., Schoof, C.C. and Shah, H.C., 1984, Computer programs for seismic hazard analysis: A User Manual, Report No.62, The J. A. Blume Earthquake Engineering Cener, Stanford University, California.
7. EERI Commitee on Seismic Risk, 1989, The basics of seismic risk analysis: Earthquake Spectra, 5(4), 675-702.
8. Gülkan, P., Koçyiğit, A., Yücemen, M.S., Doyuran, V. ve Başöz, N., 1993, En son verilere göre hazırlanan Türkiye deprem bölgeleri haritası: ODTÜ Deprem Mühendisliği Araştırma Merkezi, Rapor No. 93-01.

9. Joyner, W.B. and Boore, D.M., 1988, Measurement, characterization and prediction of strong ground motion: Earthquake Engineering and Soil Dynamics, 2, Recent Advances in Ground Motion Evaluation, 43-102.
10. Polo, C.M. and Slemmons, D.B., 1990, Estimation of earthquake size for seismic hazards, in Krinitzsky, E.L. and Slemmons, D.B., editors, Neotectonics in Earthquake Evaluation: Reviews in Engineering Geology, 8, 1-28.
11. TERA Coiporation, 1980, Seismic hazard analysis for the Savannah River Plant, South Carolina: Report by TERA Corporation, 2150 Shattuck Ave. Berkeley, California.