A View from 2025 on the NATO 2030 Transatlantic Agenda

Öz

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is an international organization founded in 1949, based on collective defense and prioritizing military cooperation. It has proven its military effectiveness in the international system. Since its establishment, NATO has sought to adapt to the changing conditions of the international system and has outlined key strategic directions. As part of an initiative launched in 2019, NATO developed a strategy titled “NATO 2030.” In this context, the adoption of the NATO 2030 Agenda at the Brussels Summit in June 2021 marked a significant step toward outlining a long-term vision aimed at strengthening the Alliance’s political cohesion, resilience, and global engagement. However, under the new threat perceptions triggered by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the extent to which NATO's 2030 Agenda aligns with emerging circumstances has come into question. This study examines the trajectory of NATO’s 2030 strategy from the perspective of the year 2025. The research question of the study is formulated as follows: “To what extent do the core policies outlined in the NATO 2030 Agenda match up with the policies presented in NATO’s discourse in 2025?” Within this scope, the study employs content analysis to examine 69 speeches—most of which were delivered by the NATO Secretary General—published under the "Speeches and Transcripts" section of NATO’s official website between January 1, 2025, and June 9, 2025. The analysis provides insights into NATO’s threat perceptions and key policy trends and assesses the points of convergence and divergence between these findings and the 2030 strategy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• NATO
• NATO 2030
• Ukraine
• China’s Build-up
• Russia

‘NATO 2030’ Transatlantik Gündemine 2025 Yılından Bir Bakış

Öz

Kuzey Atlantik Antlaşması Örgütü (NATO) 1949 yılında kurulmuş, müşterek savunmayı temel alan ve askeri alanda işbirliğini ön planda tutan, uluslararası sistemde sahadaki askeri etkinliğini kanıtlamış bir uluslararası örgüttür. Kuruluşundan bugüne NATO, uluslararası sistemdeki değişen şartlara uyum sağlamaya çalışmış, temel stratejiler belirlemiştir. 2019 yılında başlayan bir çabayla, “NATO 2030” başlıklı bir strateji geliştirmiştir. Bu bağlamda, Haziran 2021'deki Brüksel Zirvesi'nde NATO 2030 Gündemi'nin kabul edilmesi, İttifak'ın siyasi uyumunu, dayanıklılığını ve küresel katılımını güçlendirmeyi amaçlayan uzun vadeli bir vizyon çizme yönünde önemli bir girişim olmuştur. Ancak, Rusya'nın 2022'de Ukrayna'yı tam ölçekli işgaliyle tetiklenen yeni tehdit algıları, NATO 2030 gündeminin ortaya çıkan koşullara ne ölçüde uyumlu olduğu hususunda soru işaretleri doğurmuştur. Bu çalışma, NATO’nun 2030 stratejisinin gidişatını, 2025 yılından bir bakışla incelemektedir. Çalışmanın araştırma sorusu “NATO 2030 Gündemi dâhilindeki temel politikalar ile 2025 yılındaki NATO söylemlerinin ortaya koyduğu politikalar ne ölçüde örtüşmektedir?” şeklinde kurgulanmıştır. Bu kapsamda çalışma, içerik analizi yöntemini kullanarak NATO’nun resmi internet sayfasında “Konuşmalar ve Transkripsiyon” sekmesi altında yer alan 1 Ocak 2025 tarihinden 9 Haziran 2025 tarihine kadar çoğunluğuna yakını NATO Genel Sekreteri tarafından yapılmış 69 konuşmayı inceleyerek NATO’nun tehdit algılamaları ve temel politika eğilimlerine dair çıkarımlarda bulunmuş, ilgili çıktıların 2030 stratejisi ile örtüşen ve ayrışan noktalarına dair çözümlemelerde bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• NATO
• NATO 2030
• Ukrayna
• Çin’in Güçlenmesi
• Rusya

Kaynakça

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