DOLAR HEGEMONYASI VE KRİPTO PARA MÜHENDİSLİĞİ ÜZERİNE TEKNOLOJİK RİSK ANALİZİ

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 1, 35 - 65, 30.04.2020

Ahmet Efe

https://doi.org/10.22139/jobs.621504

Öz

Amaç: Bu çalışmadaki amacımız, ABD Dolar senyorajının ne boyutta oluğunu tespit etmek ve bunun kripto paraların yükselişiyle etkilenip etkilenmeyeceğini anlamaya çalışmaktır.
Yöntem: Bu çoklu disipliner çalışmamızda, henüz yaygınlaşmamış olmakla birlikte özellikle dijital/kripto para mekanizmasının ABD Dolarının küresel ölçekte hegemonyasını sarsabilecek bir potansiyelde olup olmaması noktasında hegemonya, paradigma, senyoraj ve parasal miktar kuramları çerçevesinde çoklu analiz yapılmaktadır.
Bulgular: ABD Doları, diğer uluslar tarafından rezerv para, değişim aracı ve değer ölçümü olarak kullanıldığından günümüzde sadece ulusal senyoraj değil, aynı zamanda küresel senyoraj aracı olarak da rakipsiz bir avantaj sağlamaktadır. Bu sayede diğer ulusların rekabet edemeyeceği bir üstünlük elde etmiştir. Türk Lirası (TL) örneğinde görüldüğü gibi pek çok gelişmekte olan ülke paralarının değer kaybından dolayı sıkıntılar yaşamaktadır. Elle tutulur ortamdan e-devlet/MIS dijital alanına kayan devletin parası da aynı eğilim ve metotla sanal ve kripto ortama taşınmak zorundadır. Özellikle Korona Virüs salgını sonrasında kağıt paraların da enfeksiyon bulaştırma riski ön plana çıktığından Dijital Dolar için ABD Senatosunda yasa önerilerinin tartışılıyor olması bu hususta gerekli alt yapının hızlı bir şekilde hazırlanacağı anlaşılmaktadır. Hatta saygın bilim otoriteleri ve politikacılar tarafından Korona Virüsün Endüstri 4.0 için ortam oluşturmak maksadıyla yapay olarak geliştirilmiş olduğu iddialarının/suçlamalarının yanı sıra, pek çok gelişmiş ülkede insanlara mikro chip takılması ve kripto paralara geçilmesi ciddi bir gündem haline gelmiştir.
Sonuç: Kripto para mühendisliğinde kullanılan blokzinciri teknolojisi, ulus paralara rakip olabilecek Bitcoin denilen çeşitli elektronik para uygulamaları ile birlikte aynı zamanda bir belgenin veya varlığın ispatlanmasında da kullanılmaya başlanmıştır. Kripto paraların ülkelerin rezerv para uygulamalarını ve ABD’nin Dolar Senyorajını bozacak potansiyelde olabileceği sunucuna varılmıştır. Ancak, Fereral Reserv Merkez Bankasının Dijital Dolar için gerekli alt yapıyı hazırlamış olduğuyla ilgili haberler dikkate alındığında Dolar kullanımının ve bundan kaynaklanan senyorajın devam ettirilme ihtimalinin de güçlü olduğu söylenebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Blok Zinciri Teknolojisi, Kripto Para Mühendisliği, Dolar Hegemonyası, Teknoloji Yeniliği, e-Devlet

TECHNOLOGICAL RISK ANALYSIS ON CRYPTO CURRENCY ENGINEERING AND DOLLAR HEGEMONY

Öz

Aim: The aim of this study is to determine the size of the US Dollar seigniorage and to assess whether this will be affected by the rise of crypto currencies.
Method: In this multidisciplinary work, we analyze, particularly as yet unfamiliar, whether the virtual or crypto money mechanism is potentially capable of undermining the hegemony of the US dollar in global terms at the conjecture of manifold concepts such as hegemony, paradigm crisis, general seigniorage and Gresham money theories.
Findings: Gresham Quantity Theory, known as the monetary balance theory, reveals that the real and financial sectors depend on a number of parameters in a certain balance. In other words, you cannot print unlimited money unless your money is a reserve money, exchange and investment tool by foreign countries. Countries like the USA, which provide this strong advantage, have achieved a difficult and unfair competitive advantage on a global scale. While such countries can meet all their current account deficits and budget deficits with the printing of money called open financing, the negative effects of this can be reflected in weak economies that are becoming increasingly dependent. Many developing countries such as Turkish Lira (TL) are suffering for national currency devaluation. That is why US government has acquired a paramount advantage that any other country cannot cope with. The developments in the cryptocurrency market are seen not only as a parallel to the spread of the internet, smartphones and the ability to operate in the digital world, but also as a safe haven from central financial regulators and central banks. While current developments cannot yet prove that digital currencies like Bitcoin will be a long-term investment, serious perception operations continue to be carried out as cryptocurrencies. Many countries have initiated the necessary legal and administrative processes to prepare their own national official cryptocurrency. Blockchain, the technology behind the idea of digital currency, can be seen as a definitive model for decentralized electronic economic transactions. However, as the system is not fully settled in relation to cryptocurrencies, the fact that it was seriously depreciated in 2018 caused some doubts and an atmosphere of insecurity in this sense. However, it can be said that it may recover again because of its upward movement in early 2020. The national currencies in the manual environment also have to move to virtual and crypto-centric e-government trends, outomated information&control systems and methods in the same way. Particularly after the COVID19 pandemic, due to the risk of infection from paper money, there has been discussion over Bill of House in the US senate for the legislative structure that ease the usage of Digital Dollar. In addition to the claims / accusations made by reputable scientific authorities and politicians in many developed countries that COVID-19 has been artificially developed to create an environment for Industry 4.0 applications, to install microchips to people and increase the use of crypto currencies.
Result: Blockchain technology based on crypto currency engineering is being used to prove the existence of a document or a document at the same time with various electronic money applications called Bitcoin, which paves a new way that challenges national currencies and seigniorage. It has been concluded that the crypto currencies have the potential to disrupt the countries' reserve money practices and the US Dollar. However, considering the news that the FED Central Bank has prepared the necessary infrastructure for the Digital Dollar, it is possible to say that the probability of continuing the seigniorage caused by the use of the US dollar globally is also strong. When considered in terms of Turkey, a serious implementation of monetary and fiscal discipline programs, commitment to the fight against inflation, to protect the image of the TL's strong currency, to continue the policies that gave confidence to investors, fundamental issues such as the creation of infrastructure for legal and technical for the national digital money, are the most important ones. Serious monetary and fiscal discipline implementation of the government is of great importance especially for foreign capital to secure itself and foresee the future with hope. This is closely related to the trust in institutions and the rule of law. However, the fact that the foreign trade deficit remained around $ 60 billion indicates that the import coverage ratio should be increased continuously. This can also be considered as an issue closely related to getting out of the middle-income trap. For this, it is necessary to prepare the legal and technical infrastructure for the national crypto money, to encourage the consumption of domestic goods, to provide a hundred percent domestic goods condition in public procurements, to save money by eliminating waste and unnecessary expenses and to increase the international competitiveness by removing the obstacles to the real economy. Increasing the confidence index, eliminating public order problems, supporting the culture of cooperation and facilitating the partnership processes are of great importance in this regard. This is undoubtedly closely related to the dissemination of systematic and institutional practices of public institutions and organizations, which should be operated through competent personnel employment and strictly adhered to state of law standards. It is not possible to protect the reputation of the national currency in the medium and long term without correcting the current account deficit, maintaining capital transfers from outside, focusing on the same common goals socially, eliminating waste of resources and closing the public budget deficit.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Blockchain technology, Crypto Currency Engineering, Dollar Hegemony, Innovative Technology, e-Government, MIS

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