Türkiye’de Dış Göç, Tarımsal İstihdam ve Hanehalkı İşgücü İlişkisi

Öz

Türkiye, en büyük mülteci nüfusuna ev sahipliği yapan ülkelerden biri olmasına rağmen, dış göçün ulusal düzeyde işgücü piyasası ve istihdam yapısı üzerine etkileri konusunda fazla sayıda akademik çalışmanın olmadığı söylenebilir. Bu nedenle çalışma, uluslararası göçün Türkiye’de tarımsal istihdama etkisini ve tarımsal istihdam yapısında yaşanan değişimi ortaya koymak amacıyla yapılmıştır. Türkiye’de yaşanan tarımsal işgücündeki değişimi saptamak ve dış göçün zamansal etkisini ortaya koymak için, 1988-2018 dönemine ait verilerle Johansen Eşbütünleşme ve Granger Nedensellik analizleri yapılmıştır. Eşbütünleşme analizi sonucuna göre, kısa dönemde dış göç miktarındaki artış, tarım alanı miktarını ve tarımsal istihdamı olumsuz etkilerken, tarımsal gayrisafi yurtiçi hasılayı olumlu etkilemektedir. Uzun dönemde ise net göçün, tarımsal alan, tarımsal Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasıla ve tarımsal istihdam üzerine etkileri olumsuzdur. Nedensellik analizi sonucunda ise, göç ile tarımsal gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla arasında tek yönlü bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Göçün kısa vadede tarımsal istihdama olumsuz etkisinin, bu süreç içerisinde istihdamdaki yapının nasıl değişiklik ve gelişim gösterdiğini saptamak için de panel veri analizi yapılmıştır. Panel verileri, 2004-2020 dönemi zaman verilerini, bireyin tarım çalışma durumu, eğitimi, geliri, işte sürekli çalışma ve ek iş yapma durumu ise kesit verilerini oluşturmaktadır. Yapılan Panel Logistik Regresyon Analizi sonucuna göre ise, eğitim düzeyi ve geliri artan birey tarım sektöründen uzaklaşırken, bireyin ek iş yapma isteği kişiyi tarım sektörüne yönlendirmektedir. Bu durumda uluslararası göçün tarımsal istihdamı ve yapısını olumsuz yönde etkilemektedir. Bu nedenle göçmen politikalarında yapılan çalışma düzenlemelerinin sürdürebilirliği sağlanmalıdır. Tarımda çalışmaktan vazgeçen işçilerin farklı sektörlere yönelmesiyle birlikte tarım alanlarının amaç dışı kullanımı söz konusu olmaktadır. Böylece uzun dönemde üretim miktarındaki azalış ve bunun sonucunda da tarımsal GSYİH’yi de olumsuz etkileyebilir. Bu durum farklı çalışmaların konusudur ve yeni çalışmalara altyapı oluşturabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tarımsal istihdam
• Dış göç
• Zaman serisi
• Panel veri analizi

The Relationship between International Migration, Agricultural Employment, and Household Labor Force in Türkiye

Öz

There isn't much academic research on the impacts of immigration on the labor market and job structure at the national level, although Türkiye is one of the nation’s hosting the greatest populations of refugees. Because of the scarcity of information, a research gap exists. As a result, the study was carried out to determine the impact of international migration on agricultural employment and the changes in agricultural employment in Türkiye. Johansen Co-integration and Granger Causality analyses were performed on data from 1988 to 2018 to evaluate the change in the agricultural workforce in Türkiye and to demonstrate the temporal influence of immigration. According to the findings of the cointegration study, a rise in emigration has a negative impact on the agricultural areas and agricultural employment while having a good impact on agricultural GDP. Migration has long-term detrimental consequences. According to the causality study, there is a one-way link between migration and agricultural GDP. A panel data analysis was performed to establish the short-term detrimental impact of migration on agricultural employment, as well as how the structure of employment altered and developed during this process. The statistics provide temporal data from 2004 to 2020, and the individual's agricultural employment status, education, income, continuous employment, and extra work status are cross-sectional data. According to the Panel Logistic Regression Analysis results, while more educated and higher income individuals leave away from the agricultural sector, the desire to have a side job leads the individual to the agricultural sector. International migration has a detrimental impact on agricultural employment and its structure in this scenario. As a result, the sustainability of the working arrangements established by immigration regulations should be assured, and limits and constraints should be implemented, particularly in the agricultural sector. When agricultural employees transition to other industries, agricultural areas are being used in ways that were not planned. As a result, in the long run, the decline in output may have a negative impact on agricultural GDP. This condition has been the topic of several research and may serve as the foundation for new ones.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Agriculture employment
• emigration
• time series analysis
• panel data analysis

Kaynakça

1. Adiele, D. and Umezuruike, C. (2021). Immigration, migration, education, unemployment, income, and dollar exchange rate: an application of the bounds testing approach to cointegration. Journal of Assertiveness, 15(1): 1-8.
2. Ahmed, M. S. (2010). Migrant workers remittance and economic growth: Evidence from Bangladesh. ASA University Review, 4(1): 1-13.
3. Akay, Ç. E. (2015). Panel Data Models with STATA. Edt. Selahattin Güriş, Der Publications, İstanbul, s:175-194. (In Turkish)
4. Altunç, Ö. F., Uçan, O. and Akyıldız, A. (2017). The Effects of external migration on unemployment, inflation and economic growth in the Turkish economy: An econometric analysis. Researcher, 5(1): 197-211. (In Turkish)
5. Andersan, E. B. (1970). Asymptotic properties of conditional maximum-likelihood estimators. Journal of The Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), 32(2): 283-301.
6. Anonymous (2020c). Türkiye Statistical Institute (TSI). https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/DownloadFile (Accessed Date: 03.02.2022)
7. Anonymous (2021b). Türkiye Statistical Institute (TSI). https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=istihdam-issizlik-ve-ucret-108&dil=1 (Accessed Date: 12.05.2021)
8. Anonymous (2022). Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL (Accessed Date: 16.04.2022)

9. Anonymous, (2019). Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye Strategy and Budget Directorate. https://www.sbb.gov.tr/isgucu-piyasasindaki-gelismelerin-makro-analizi/ (Accessed Date: 06.06. 2019)
10. Anonymous, (2020a). Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Interior Presidency of Migration Management, https://www.goc.gov.tr/giris-cikis (Accessed Date: 06.06.2021)
11. Anonymous, (2020b). Türkiye Statistical Institute (TSI), https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Isgucu-Istatistikleri-2020-37484#:~:text=%C4%B0%C5%9Fsizlik%20oran%C4%B1%20%13%2C2%20seviyesinde,%13%2C2%20seviyesinde%20ger%C3%A7ekle%C5%9Fti (Accessed Date: 03.02.2022)
12. Anonymous, (2021a). Türkiye Statistical Institute (TSI). https://tuikweb.tuik.gov.tr/MicroVeri/Hia_2019/turkce/metaveri/tanim/index.html (Accessed Date: 16.04.2021)
13. Baltagi, B. H. (2005). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, Third Edition, England John Wiley & Sons Inc Barro, R. J. and Sala-I-Martin, X. (2004), Economic Growth, MIT Press, Cambridge.
14. Boubtane, E., Caulibaly, D. and Rault, C. ( 2013). Immigration, unemployment and GDP in the host country: Bootstrap panel granger causality analysis on OECD countries. Economing Modelling, (33): 261-269.
15. Boubtane, E., Coulibaly D. and Rault C. (2011). Immigration, Unemployment and Growth in the Host Country: Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries, Discussion Paper No:5853, IZA, Germany
16. Bozkurt, H. Y. (2013). Time Series Analysis Expanded 2nd Edition, Ekin Publishing, 5s. (In Turkish)
17. Chletsos, M. and Roupakias, S. (2012). Immigration, Unemployment and Growth: Empirical Evidence from Greece, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, No.39927
18. Darpeix, A., Bignebat, C. and Perrier-Cornet, P. (2014). Demand for seasonal wage labour in agriculture: What does family farming hide? Journal of Agricultural Economics, 65(1): 257- 272.
19. Demirhan, A. (2019). Panel logit models: an application on banking sector. Journal of Finance and Accounting. (111): 341-356. (In Turkish)
20. Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a): 427-431.
21. Dolado, J., Goria, A. and Ichino, A. (1994). Immigration, human capital and growth in the host country. Journal of Population Economics, 7(2): 193-215.
22. Engin, C. and Konuk, T. (2020). The impact of international migration on unemployment and economic growth in the Turkish economy: An econometric analysis. KSU Journal of Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 10(1): 103-123. (In Turkish)
23. Ergün, S. and Polat, M. A. (2022). Causal relationship between migration, gender, and unemployment: A comparison of regions in Türkiye by development level. Journal of Migration, 9(1): 107-126. (In Turkish)
24. Esposito, P., Collignon, S. and Scicchitano, S. (2020). The effect of immigration on unemployment in Europe: Does the core-periphery Dualism Matter? Economic Modelling, 84: 249-258.
25. Fazlıoğlu, A (2002). The Place of Women In Rural Development: GAP example, Atatürk University Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agricultural Economics Association, 5th Agricultural Economics Congress, Erzurum. www.gap.gov.tr (Accessed date, 21/07/2012). (In Turkish)
26. Felbermayr, G., Sanne, H. and Davide, S. (2010). Does immigration boost per capital income? Economics Letters, 107(2): 177-179.
27. Feridun, M. (2004). Immigratıon, income and unemployment: An applicatıon of the bounds testing approach to cointegration, The Journal of Developing Areas, 41(1): 37-49.
28. Fuller, W. A. (1976). Introduction to Statistical Time Series, John Wiley and Sons. New York.
29. Göv, A. and Dürrü, Z. (2017). The relationship between migration and economic growth: An econometric analysis on selected OECD countries. Journal of International Economic Research, 3(4): 491-502. (In Turkish)
30. Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3): 424-438.
31. Gülbahar, A. (2020). Macroeconomic effects of international migration: The case of Türkiye (1996-2016). (MSc. Thesis). Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli University Graduate School of Social Sciences, Nevşehir, Türkiye. (In Turkish)
32. Hsiao, C., 1994. Analysis of Panel Data, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
33. İşcan, İ. H., Demirel, T. (2021). The effects of migration on growth and employment markets in developed countries: A panel ARDL analysis, Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, 35: 181-203. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2021.35.1014765 (In Turkish)
34. Islam A. (2007). Immigration and unemployment relationship: evidence from Canada, Australian Economic Papers, 46: 52–66.
35. Karaca, O. (2003). Inflation-growth relationship in Türkiye: A time series analysis. Doğuş University Journal, 4(2): 247-255. (In Turkish)
36. Karakayacı, Z., Bozdemir Akçil, M., Eroğlu, O. and Bayramoğlu, Z. (2022). The importance of capital in terms of increasing labor efficiency in agricultural enterprises. Journal of Tekirdag Agricultural Faculty, 19(4): 745-755. https://doi.org/10.33462/jotaf.1022253 (In Turkish)
37. Koyuncu, T. (2020). Comparative analysis of labor value theory and utility value theory. Economics Literature, 2(1): 20-33.
38. Latif, E., (2015). The Relationship Between Immigration and Unemployment: Panel Data Evidence From Canada, Economic Modelling, Vol: 50, pp.162- 167
39. Long, J. S. (1997). Regression Models for Categorical and Limited Dependent Variables, USA Sage Publications Inc.
40. Maddala, G. S. (2001). Introduction to Econometrics, Third Edition, New York: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
41. Meçik, O., Koyuncu, T. (2020). The relationship between migration and economic growth in Türkiye: Toda-Yamamoto causality test. Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Research, 9(3): 2618-2635. (In Turkish)
42. Morley, B. (2006). Causality between economic growth and immigration: An ARDL bounds testing approach, Economics Letters, 90: 72–76.
43. Nurdoğan, A. K. and Şahin, M. (2019). Is international migration a cause of unemployment in Türkiye? International Journal of Society and Research, 9(11): 2203-2221. (In Turkish)
44. Ogu, C. (2022). Examining the relationships among effect of international migration, unemployment and poverty in Nigeria. African Journal of Social and Behavioural Sciences, 12(2): 347-360.
45. Ortega F. and Peri G. (2014). Migration, Trade and Income. Journal of International Economics, 92: 231-251. Öztornacı, B. (2019). Multidimensional rural poverty and its determinants in Türkiye. (PhD Thesis) Çukurova University, Institute of Science, Adana, Türkiye. (In Turkish)
46. Pınar, A., Siverekli, E., Demir, M., (2016). Perspectives of employers and workers in Şanlıurfa on Syrian employment. International Labor Organization Research Reports. 1-34. (In Turkish)
47. Sevinç, H. and Sevinç Eroğlu, D. (2016). he Relationship between Economic Growth and Migration: An Analysis Based on Developing Countries, International Conference on Eurasian Economies Session 2C: Development II, August 29-31, Hungary. (In Turkish)
48. Shan J., Morris A., Sun F. (1999). Immigration and Unemployment: New Evidence from Australia and New Zealand, International Review of Applied Economics, 13(2): 253-260.
49. Şimşek, D., (2018). The relationship between migration rate, inflation, and economic growth: A study of eight countries with the highest migration rates. (MSc. Thesis) Institute of Social Sciences, Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli University, Nevşehir. (In Turkish)
50. Tari, R. (2012). Econometri, Umuttepe Publishing Kocaeli.
51. Verturini, A., and Villosio, C., (2004). Labour Market Effect of Immigration into Italy: An Empricial Analysis, International Labour Review, 145: 91-118.
52. Yilmaz, E., Özdemir, G., Oraman, Y., Unakitan, G., & Konyali, S. (2019). Women's participation in decision-making processes in agricultural production and their expectations from cooperatives. Journal of Tekirdag Faculty of Agriculture, 16(1): 71-81. (In Turkish)
53. Zagler, M. (2009). Economic Growth, Structural Change, and Search Unemployment. Journal of Economics, 96(1): 63-78.