COVID-19 PANDEMİSİNİN TURİZM ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: BORSA İSTANBUL TURİZM ENDEKSİ ÜZERİNE BİR İNCELEME

Öz

11 Mart 2020 itibariyle pandemi olarak ilan edilen Covid-19 Coronavirüs salgınının tüm sektörleri etki altına aldığı piyasalarda kabul edilen bir gerçektir. Bu çalışmada Covid-19’un en çok etki altına aldığı sektörlerden biri olan turizm üzerindeki etkisinin ortaya konması amaçlanmıştır. Bu doğrultuda Covid-19 günlük vaka ve Covid-19 günlük ölüm sayılarının Borsa İstanbul Turizm Endeksi (BIST Turizm) üzerindeki etkisi ARDL sınır testi vasıtasıyla incelenmiştir. Yapılan analizler sonucunda hem vaka hem de ölüm sayıları bazında Covid-19’un turizm ile eşbütünleşik bir yapıya sahip olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Kısa dönemli katsayı tahminleri sonucunda Covid-19’un BIST Turizm endeksinde yer alan firmaların hisse senedi fiyatlarını negatif yönlü olarak etkilediği anlaşılmaktadır. Öte yandan uzun dönemli katsayı tahminleri yapıldığında, söz konusu ilişkinin pozitif yönlü olduğu görülmüştür. Buna göre normalleşme süreci sonrasında turizm firmalarının hisse senedi fiyatlarında toparlanmaların gerçekleştiği görülmektedir. Söz konusu bulgular, pandemi sonrası turizm sektöründeki toparlanmaların giderek artacağına işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Covid-19
• Pandemi
• BIST Turizm Endeksi
• Turizm Ekonomisi
• ARDL Sınır Testi

THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON TOURISM: AN APPROACH ON BORSA İSTANBUL TOURISM INDICES

Öz

The fact that the Covid-19 Coronavirus epidemic, which was declared as a pandemic as of March 11, 2020, affects all sectors is an accepted fact in all markets. In this paper, it is aimed to reveal the effect of Covid-19 on tourism, which is one of the sectors that are most affected. Accordingly, the effect of Covid-19-daily cases and Covid-19 daily deaths on the Borsa Istanbul Tourism Index (BIST Tourism) was examined through the ARDL bound test. As a result of the analysis, it has been determined that Covid-19 has a structure that is cointegrated with tourism in terms of both case and death numbers. As a result of the short-term coefficient estimates, it is understood that the stock prices of the companies in Covid-19's BIST Tourism index affect negatively. On the other hand, when long term coefficient estimates are made, it is seen that the relationship is positive. Accordingly, after the normalization process, it is seen that the stock prices of tourism companies recovered. These findings indicate that the recovery in the tourism sector will increase after the pandemic.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Covid-19
• Pandemic
• BIST Tourism Index
• Tourism Economy
• ARDL Bound Test

Kaynakça

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