OECD Ülkelerinde Petrol Tüketiminin İhracat İthalat ve Büyümeye Etkisi

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 19 Sayı: 3, 805 - 822, 01.07.2020

Tufan Sarıtaş Yüksel Okşak

https://doi.org/10.21547/jss.730268

Öz

Bu çalışmada 1996-2018 dönemi için OECD ülkelerinde petrol tüketiminin; ihracat, ithalat ve büyüme üzerindeki etkisi, panel veri analizi kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Araştırmada, üç farklı model kurulmuştur. Birinci modelde büyüme, ikinci modelde ihracat ve üçüncü modelde ise ithalat bağımlı serilerdir. Tüm modellerde kullanılan bağımsız seriler ise; ham petrol tüketimi, tasarruflar ve döviz kurudur. Elde edilen ampirik bulgularda; birinci modelde petrol tüketimi ve tasarrufların, büyüme üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğu gözlemlenmektedir. Döviz kuru ise negatif bir katsayıya sahip olmakla birlikte, büyüme üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisi bulunmamaktadır. İkinci model için elde edilen sonuçlarda, petrol tüketimi ve tasarrufların, ihracat üzerinde pozitif yönlü bir etki oluşturduğu ifade edilmektedir. Bu modelde döviz kuru ise pozitif bir katsayıya sahip olmakla birlikte, ihracat üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisi bulunmamaktadır. Üçüncü modelde ise; petrol tüketimi, tasarruflar ve döviz kurunun istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir şekilde pozitif yönlü olarak ithalatı etkilediği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

OECD Ülkeleri, Büyüme, İhracat, İthalat, Panel Veri Analizi

The Effect of Oil Consumption on Export Import and Growth in OECD Countries

Öz

In this study, the effect of oil consumption on exports, imports and growth in OECD countries for the period of 1996-2018 was investigated by using panel data analysis. Three different models were established in the research. Growth in the first model, exports in the second model and import-dependent series in the third model. Independent series used in all models are crude oil consumption, savings and exchange rates. In the empirical findings obtained, it is observed that oil consumption and savings have a positive effect on growth in the first model. The exchange rate has a negative coefficient, but it has no statistically significant effect. In the results obtained for the second model, it is stated that oil consumption and saving have a positive effect on exports. In this model, although the exchange rate has a positive coefficient, it does not have a statistically significant effect on exports. In the third model, it is concluded that oil consumption, savings and exchange rate have a positive effect on imports in a statistically significant way.

Anahtar Kelimeler

OECD Countries, Growth, Export, Import, Panel Data Analysis

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