The Analysis of Dynamic Relationship between Higher Educational, Health and Economic Growth in Turkey

Öz

Türkiye’de Yüksek Eğitim, Sağlık ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Dinamik İlişkinin Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de 1991-2018 dönemi için beşeri sermaye yatırımı olarak yükseköğretim, sağlık ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki uzun vadeli ilişki Gregory-Hansen (GH) yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme yaklaşımıyla incelenmiştir. Eşbütünleşme vektöründeki yapısal değişim altında değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edildikten sonra model C/T için bulunan eşbütünleşme ilişkisi dikkate alınarak, uzun dönem katsayılarının elde edilmesinde Tam Değiştirilmiş EKK (FMOLS), Dinamik En Küçük Kareler (DOLS) ve Kanonik Eşbütünleşme Regresyonu (CCR) tahmincileri kullanılmıştır. Temel sonuçlarımız yükseköğretimin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde negatif bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermiştir. Bu sonuç teorik öngörülerle çelişmekle birlikte Türkiye’de genç işsiz sayısının artmaya devam etmesi, yükseköğretimin planlanmamış karakterini ortaya çıkarmıştır. Bu bulgu Türkiye ekonomisinin düşük beceri ve düşük üretkenlik faaliyetlerinde uzmanlaştığının da bir ifadesidir. Dolayısıyla yükseköğretimin nitel yönlerinden ziyade niceliksel olarak genişlemesinin ekonomik büyümeye katkıda bulunmadığı bu çalışmanın önemli bir bulgusudur. Sağlıkla ilgili dikkate aldığımız vekil değişken olarak doğumda yaşam beklentisinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi pozitif ve sabit sermaye yatırımlarının etkisinden daha büyüktür. Hacker ve Hatemi-J (2006) bootstrap nedensellik test sonuçları ise büyüme ve bağımsız değişkenlerle ilgili sadece yüksek eğitimden büyümeye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yüksek eğitim
• sağlık
• ekonomik büyüme

Kaynakça

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