Technology-Unemployment Relationship in the Scope of Science and Technology Policies: An Empirical Review

Öz

The purpose of this paper is twofold. The first goal is to contribute to the empirical literature at the macro level, which is quite insufficient quantitatively, related to the impact of technology on employment. The second purpose is to contribute to the discussion with a quantitative finding regarding the general bias and concern that technology will cause unemployment In this study, technology and unemployment relationship has been analyzed with System Generalized Method of Moments estimator for the 22 European Union countries and Turkey with data for the years 2005-2018. As a result of the analysis, it has been observed that, contrary to the general prejudice, technology has a positive effect on unemployment, but this effect is a temporary effect and disappears after the second year. In this way, it has been empirically demonstrated that technological development does not have a negative impact on employment thanks to compensation mechanisms.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Technology
• Unemployment
• S-GMM
• Technological Unemployment
• Technology Policy

Bilim ve Teknoloji Politikaları Bağlamında Teknoloji-İşsizlik İlişkisi: Ampirik Bir İnceleme

Öz

Bu makalenin amacı iki yönlüdür. Birinci amaç, teknolojinin istihdama yönelik etkilerini ele alan ve nicelik bakımından oldukça yetersiz olan makro düzeydeki ampirik literatüre katkıda bulunmaktadır. İkinci maksat, teknolojinin işsizliğe neden olacağına dair genel önyargı ve endişeye karşı nicel bir bulgu ile tartışmaya katkı sunmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Sistem Genelleştirilmiş Momentler tahmincisi ile 22 Avrupa Birliği ülkesi ve Türkiye için 2005-2018 yıllarına ait verilerle teknoloji ve işsizlik ilişkisi analiz edilmiştir. Yapılan analiz sonucunda, genel önyargının aksine teknolojinin işsizlik üzerinde olumlu bir etkisinin olduğu fakat bu etkinin geçici bir etki olduğu ve ikinci yıldan itibaren kaybolduğu görülmüştür. Bu şekilde teknolojik gelişimin telafi mekanizmaları sayesinde istihdam üzerinde olumsuz bir etki yapmadığı ampirik olarak ortaya konulmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Teknoloji
• İşsizlik
• S-GMM
• Teknolojik İşsizlik
• Teknoloji Politikası

Kaynakça

1. Abor, J. & Harvey, S.K. 2008. “Foreign Direct Investment and Employment: Host Country Experience.” Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, 1 (2): 213–225.
2. Adanu, K. 2005. “A Cross-province Comparison of Okun's Coefficient for Canada.” Applied Economics, 37 (5): 561-570.
3. Aguilera, A. & Barrera, M.G.R. 2016. “Technological Unemployment: an Approximation to the Latin American Case.” AD-Minister, 29: 59-78.
4. Alisa, M. 2015. “The Relationship between Inflation and Unemployment: A Theoretical Discussion about the Phillips Curve.” Journal of Business and Economics, 3 (2): 89-97.
5. Anderson, T.W. & Hsiao, C. 1981. “Estimation of Dynamic Models with Error Components.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 76: 598-606.
6. Anderson, T.W. & Hsiao, C. 1982. “Formulation and Estimation of Dynamic Models u-Using Panel Data.” Journal of Econometrics, 18: 47-82.
7. Arellano, M. 2003. Panel Data Econometrics. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
8. Arellano, M. & Bond, S. 1991. “Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations.” Review of Economic Studies, 58: 277-297.

9. Arellano, M. & Bover, O. 1995. “Another Look at the Instrumental Variables Estimation of Error Component Models.” Journal of Econometrics, 68: 29-51.
10. Baccaro, L. & Rei, D. 2007. “Institutional Determinants of Unemployment in OECD Countries: Does the Deregulatory View Hold Water?” International Organization, 61 (3): 527-569.
11. Bakhshi, Z. & Ebrahimi, M. 2016. “The Effect of Real Exchange Rate on Unemployment.” Marketing and Branding Research, 3 (2016): 4-13.
12. Baltagi, B.H. 2005. Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. 3rd Edition. New York: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
13. Barba Navaretti, G. & Castellani, D. & Disdier, A.C. 2010. “How does Investing in Cheap Labour Countries Affect Performance at Home? Firm-level Evidence from France and Italy.” Oxford Economic Papers, 62: 234-260.
14. Bayrak, M. & Kanca, O.C. 2013. “Türkiye’de Philips Eğrisi Üzerine Bir Uygulama.” Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 8 (3): 97-115.
15. Blanchard, O. & Wolfers, J. 2000. “The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence.” The Economic Journal, 110 (462): 1–33.
16. Blundell, R. & Bond, S. 1998. “Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models.” Journal of Econometrics, 87: 115-143.
17. Blundell, R. & Bond, S. & Windmeijer, F. 2000. “Estimation in Dynamic Panel Data Models: Improving on the Performance of the Standard GMM Estimator.” Advances in Econometrics, 15: 53–91.
18. Bogliacino, F. & Vivarelli, M. 2012. “The Job Creation Effect of R&D Expenditures.” Australian Economic Papers, 51 (2): 96-113.
19. Bond, S. & Bowsher, C. & Windmeijer. F. 2001. “Criterion-based Inference for GMM in Autoregressive Panel Data Models.” Economic Letters, 73: 379-388.
20. Brynjolfsson, E. & McAfee, A. 2014. İkinci Makine Çağı: Akıllı Teknolojiler Devrinde Çalışma, İlerleme ve Refah (Orj.The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies). Çev. L. Göktem. 2018. İstanbul: Türk Hava Yolları Yayınları adına Optimist Yayınları.
21. Cang, Y. 2017. "A Deep Dive into Technological Unemployment: A State-Level Analysis on the Employment Effect of Technological Innovations", Senior Thesis, Claremont McKenna College.
22. Chang, S.C. 2007. “The Interactions Among Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth, Degree of Openness and Unemployment in Taiwan.” Applied Economics, 39 (13): 1647-1661
23. Driffield, N. & Love, J. H. & Taylor, K. 2009. “Productivity and Labour Demand Effects of Inward and Outward Foreign Direct Investment on UK Industry.” The Manchester School, 77: 171-203.
24. Elia, S. & Mariotti, I. & Piscitello, L. 2009. “The Impact of Outward FDI on the Home Country’s Labour Demand and Skill Composition.” International Business Review, 18: 357-372.
25. Evangelista, R. & Guerrieri, P. & Meliciani, V. 2014. “The Economic Impact of Digital Technologies in Europe.” Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 23 (8): 802–824.
26. Federico, S. & Minerva, G. A. 2008. “Outward FDI and Local Employment Growth in Italy.” Review of World Economics, 144: 295–324.
27. Feldmann, H. 2013. “Technological Unemployment in Industrial Countries.” Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 23: 1099–1126.
28. Flanagan, R. J. 1999. “Macroeconomic Performance and Collective Bargaining: An International Perspective.” Journal of Economic Literature, 37: 1150-1175.
29. Fraile, M. & Ferrer, M. 2005. “Explaining the Determinants of Public Support for Cuts in Unemployment Benefits Spending across OECD Countries.” International Sociology, 20 (4): 459–481.
30. Frenkel, R. & Ros, J. 2006. “Unemployment and the real exchange rate in Latin America.” World Development, 34 (4): 631-646.
31. Gregory, T. & Salomons, A. & Zierahn, U. 2016. “Racing with or Against the Machine? Evidence from Europe.” SSRN Electronic Journal, Discussion Paper No. 16-053.
32. Hansen, L.P. 1982. “Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators, Econometrica, 50: 1029-1054.
33. Hauk, W.R. & Wacziarg, R. 2009. “A Monte Carlo Study of Growth Regressions.” Journal of Economic Growth, 14: 103-147.
34. Heijs, J. & Diaz, G.A. & Reyes, D.M. 2019. “Impact of Innovation on Employment in Quantitative Terms: Review of Empirical Literature Based on Microdata.” MPRA, Paper No. 95326.
35. Hijzen, A. & Jean, S. & Mayer, T. 2011. “The Effects at Home of Initiating Production Abroad: Evidence From Matched French Firms.” Review of World Economics, 147: 457-483.
36. Hsiao, C. 2003. Analysis of Panel Data. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
37. Kangasharju, A. & Tavera, C. & Nijkamp, P. 2012. “Regional Growth and Unemployment: The Validity of Okun's Law for the Finnish Regions.” Spatial Economic Analysis, 7 (3): 381-395.
38. Keane, M.P. & Runkle, D.E. 1992. “On the Estimation of Panel-Data Models With Serial Correlation When Instruments Are Not Strictly Exogenous.” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10: 1–9.
39. Krousie, C. 2018. "Technological Unemployment in the United States: A State-Level Analysis," Major Themes in Economics, 20 (6): 87-101.
40. Kuştepeli, Y. 2005. “A Comprehensive Short-run Analysis of a (possible) Turkish Phillips Curve.” Applied Economics, 37: 581-591.
41. Layard, R. & Nickell, S. 1985. “The Causes of British Unemployment.” Natl Inst. Econ. Rev., 111: 62–85.
42. Lee, J. 2000. “The Robustness of Okun’s Law: Evidence From Oecd Countries.” Journal of Macroeconomics, 22 (2): 331-356.
43. Masso, J. & Varblane, U. & Vahter, P. 2008. “The Effect of Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Home-Country Employment in a Low-Cost Transition Economy.” Eastern European Economics, 46: 25–59.
44. Matuzeviciute, K. & Butkus, M. & Karaliute, A. 2017. “Do Technological Innovations Affect Unemployment? Some Empirical Evidence from European Countries.” Economies, 5 (48): 1-19.
45. Mileva, E. 2007. Using Arellano-Bond Dynamic Panel GMM Estimators in Stata. New York: Fordham University.
46. Nickell, S. 1981. “Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects.” Econometrica, 49: 1417–1426.
47. Nickell, S. & Nunziata, L. & Ochel, W. 2005. “Unemployment in the OECD Since the 1960s. What Do We Know?” The Economic Journal, 115 (500): 1–27.
48. Okun, A. 1962. “Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance.” Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section of the American Statistical Association, 7 (1): 89-104.
49. Onodugo, V. A., et al. 2017. “Does Public Spending Affect Unemployment in an Emerging Market.” Risk Governance & Control: Financial Markets & Institutions, 7 (1): 32-40.
50. Phillips, A. W. 1958. “The Relationship between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom 1861–1957.” Economica, 25: 283–299.
51. Pierdzioch, C. & Rülke, J-C-Stadtmann, G. 2011. “Do Professional Economists’ Forecasts Reflect Okun's Law? Some Evidence for the G7 Countries.” Applied Economics, 43 (11): 1365-1373.
52. Pini, P. 1995. “Economic Growth, Technological Change and Employment: Empirical Evidence for a Cumulative Growth Model with External Causation for Nine OECD Countries: 1960–1990.” Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 6: 185–213.
53. Roodman, D. M. 2009a. “A note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments.” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 71: 135–158.
54. Roodman, D.M. 2009b. “How to Do xtabond2: An Introduction to “Difference” and “System” GMM in Stata.” The Stata Journal, 9 (1): 86-136.
55. Samuelson, P. A. & Solow R.M. 1960. “Analytical Aspects of Anti-Inflation Policy.” American Economic Review, 50: 177–94.
56. Sargan, J. D. 1958. The Estimation of Economic Relationships Using Instrumental Variables.” Econometrica, 26: 393–415.
57. Sharma, A. & Cardenas, O. 2019. “The Labor Market Effects of FDI: A Panel Data Evidence from Mexico.” International Economic Journal: 1–17.
58. Simonetti, R. & Taylor, K. & Vivarelli, M. 2000. Modelling The Employment Impact of Innovation, (Ed. Pianta ve Vivarelli). in The Employment Impact of Innovation: Evidence and Policy, Routledge: 26-46.
59. Sinclair, P.J.N. 1981. “When will Technical Progress Destroy Jobs?” Oxf. Econ. Pap., 31: 1–18.
60. Soskice, D. 1990. “Wage Determination: The Changing Role of Institutions in Advanced Industrialized Countries.” Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 6: 36–61.
61. Sögner, L. 2001. “Okun's Law Does the Austrian Unemployment–GDP Relationship Exhibit Structural Breaks?” Empirical Economics, 26: 553–564.
62. Sögner, L. & Stiassny, A. 2002. “An Analysis on the Structural Stability of Okun's Law-A Cross-Country Study.” Applied Economics, 34 (14): 1775-1787.
63. Tancioni, M. & Simonetti, R. 2002. “A Macroeconometric Model for the Analysis of the Impact of Technological Change and Trade on Employment.” Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics, 13: 185–221.
64. Tatoğlu, Y. F. 2018. İleri Panel Veri Ekonometrisi: Stata Uygulamalı. 3. Baskı. İstanbul: Beta Yayıncılık.
65. Vandaele, K. 2006. “A Report from the Homeland of the Ghent System: The Relationship Between Unemployment and Trade Union Membership in Belgium Transfer.” European Review of Labour and Research, 12 (4): 647–657.
66. Visser, J. 2019. ICTWSS Database. Version 6.0. Amsterdam: Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Labour Studies (AIAS), University of Amsterdam. June 2019.
67. Vivarelli, M. 1995. The Economics of Technology and Employment: Theory and Empirical Evidence. Lyme: Edward Elgar.
68. Windmeijer, F. 2005. “A Finite Sample Correction for the Variance of Linear Efficient Two-Step Gmm Estimators.” Journal of Econometrics, 126: 25–51.