SEÇİLMİŞ OECD ÜLKELERİNDE BÜTÇE AÇIKLARININ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ: YATAY KESİT BAĞIMLILIĞI ALTINDA PANEL EŞ – BÜTÜNLEŞME ANALİZİ

Yıl 2013, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 30, 5086 - 1, 01.06.2013

İsmet Göçer

Öz

Budget deficits are one of the most important macroeconomic problems in many countries. High public spending and insufficiency of public revenue are main reasons of collapse for Greek, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland economies. Therefore, the conservation of budget balance and sustainability of budget deficits have got a great importance. In this study; the sustainability of budget deficit in selected 25 OECD countries was analyzed by using 2000-2011 period data, via panel co-integration analysis under cross-section dependence. According to the results of analysis; cross-section dependence was determined among these countries. Therefore, an economic shock coming to one of these countries, affects the others, too. Co-integration relationship was determined between these series. Consequently, it has been seen budget deficits of these countries were sustainable in weakly form in the long term.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Budget Deficits, Sustainability, Cross-Sectional Dependence, Panel Data Analysis.

SEÇİLMİŞ OECD ÜLKELERİNDE BÜTÇE AÇIKLARININ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ: YATAY KESİT BAĞIMLILIĞI ALTINDA PANEL EŞ – BÜTÜNLEŞME ANALİZİ

Öz

Bütçe açıklarının sürdürülebilirliği, birçok ülke için, en önemli makroekonomik sorunlardan biridir. Yunanistan, İtalya, İspanya, Portekiz ve İrlanda ekonomilerinin sarsılmasının temel nedeni, kamu harcamalarının yüksekliği ve kamu gelirlerinin, giderlerini karşılamada yetersiz kalmasıdır. Bu nedenle, bütçe dengesinin korunması ve bütçe açıklarının sürdürülebilirliği büyük önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmada; 25 OECD ülkesinde bütçe açıklarının sürdürülebilirliği, 2000-2011 dönemi verileri kullanılarak, yatay kesit bağımlılığı altında panel eş-bütünleşme yöntemiyle analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonucunda; bu ülkeler arasında yatay kesit bağımlılığının olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Dolayısıyla bu ülkelerden birine gelen bir ekonomik şok, diğerlerini de etkilemektedir. Seriler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, söz konusu ülkelerde, bütçe açıklarının, uzun dönemde zayıf formda sürdürülebilir olduğu görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bütçe Açıkları, Sürdürülebilirlik, Yatay Kesit Bağımlılığı, Panel Eş-Bütünleşme Analizi.

Kaynakça

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