Araştırma Makalesi
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Land Use/Land Cover Change Under Climate Change in a Semi-Arid Ecosystem: The Case of Gümüşhane-Bayburt Forest Management Directorate

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 25 Sayı: 3, 323 - 340, 25.12.2025

Salih Malkoçoğlu , Ergün Kahveci

https://doi.org/10.17475/kastorman.1845366

Öz

Aim of study: To examine the relationship between land-use/land-cover change (LULCC) and climate change under semi-arid climate conditions.
Area of study: This study was conducted within the borders of the Gümüşhane and Bayburt forest management directorates located in northeastern Turkey.
Material and method: The temporal change in LULC was determined by using stand maps of LULC for two planning periods (1984-2013 and 2013-2032). Mann-Kendall trend analysis was applied to climate variables, seasonal mean variables, and growth period mean variables. Finally, the relationships between climate change and LULCC are discussed.
Main results: According to the study's findings, the proportion of forested area increased from 14.27% in the first plan period to 22.85% in the subsequent plan period. The increase in the length of the growing period due to temperature increases during the growing season played a significant role in these changes. However, it is believed that the overall rise in temperatures and the trend of increased actual evaporation and transpiration during the growing season may exacerbate severe summer droughts and negatively impact ecosystems in semi-arid regions.
Research highlights: This study contributes to understanding the potential impacts of climate change in semi-arid areas and to developing strategies for future planning.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Semi-arid Ecosystems Climate Change LULCC

Kaynakça

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  • Archer, S. (2003). Proliferation of woody plants in grasslands and Savannas. Retrieved on, 24(10), 2005.
  • Archer, S., Boutton, T. W., & Hibbard, K. A. (2001). Trees in grasslands: biogeochemical consequences of woody plant expansion. In Global biogeochemical cycles in the climate system (pp. 115-137). Academic Press. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-012631260-7/50011-X
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  • Bergès, L., Chevalier, R., Dumas, Y., Franc, A., & Gilbert, J. M. (2005). Sessile oak (Quercus petraea Liebl.) site index variations in relation to climate, topography and soil in even-aged high-forest stands in northern France. Annals of forest science, 62(5), 391-402. https://doi.org/10.1051/forest:2005035
  • Coe, M. T., Costa, M. H., & Soares-Filho, B. S. (2009). The influence of historical and potential future deforestation on the stream flow of the Amazon River–Land surface processes and atmospheric feedbacks. Journal of Hydrology, 369(1-2), 165-174. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.02.043
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  • Cui, L., Wang, L., Lai, Z., Tian, Q., Liu, W., & Li, J. (2017). Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal air temperature and rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin, China during 1960–2015. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 164, 48-59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2017.08.001
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Yarı Kurak Bir Ekosistemde İklim Değişikliği Altında Arazi Kullanımı/Arazi Örtüsü Değişimi: Gümüşhane-Bayburt Orman İşletme Müdürlüğü Örneği

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 25 Sayı: 3, 323 - 340, 25.12.2025

Salih Malkoçoğlu , Ergün Kahveci

https://doi.org/10.17475/kastorman.1845366

Öz

Çalışmanın amacı: Yarı kurak iklim koşulları altında arazi kullanımı/arazi örtüsü değişimi (LULCC) ile iklim değişikliği arasındaki ilişkileri incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır.
Çalışma alanı: Bu araştırma, Türkiye’nin kuzeydoğusunda yer alan Gümüşhane ve Bayburt orman işletme müdürlükleri sınırları içerisinde gerçekleştirilmiştir.
Materyal ve yöntem: Çalışmada, LULCC'nin iki plan dönemine (1984-2013 ve 2013-2032) ait meşcere haritaları kullanılarak LULC'nin zamansal değişimi belirlenmiştir. İklim değişkenlerine, büyüme dönemi mevsimsel ortalama değişkenlerine ve büyüme dönemi ortalama değişkenlerine Mann-Kendall trend analizi uygulanmıştır. Son olarak, iklim değişikliği ve LULCC arasındaki ilişkiler tartışılmıştır.
Temel sonuçlar: Çalışmanın bulgularına göre, ilk plan döneminde %14.27 olan ormanlık alan oranı, sonraki plan döneminde %22.85'e yükselmiştir. Bu değişimlerde, büyüme dönemindeki sıcaklık artışlarına bağlı olarak büyüme dönemi uzunluğununun artması önemli rol oynamıştır. Ancak aynı dönemde sıcaklıklardaki genel artışların ve büyüme dönemindeki gerçek buharlaşma-terleme eğiliminin artmasının, şiddetli yaz kuraklıklarını artırarak yarı kurak bölgelerdeki ekosistemleri olumsuz etkileyebileceği düşünülmektedir.
Araştırma vurguları: Bu çalışma, iklim değişikliğinin yarı kurak alanlardaki olası etkilerinin anlaşılmasına ve gelecekte yapılacak planlamalara yönelik stratejiler geliştirmeye katkıda bulunmaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yarı Kurak Ekosistemler İklim Değişikliği LULCC

Kaynakça

  • Ainsworth, E. A., & Long, S. P. (2005). What have we learned from 15 years of free‐air CO2 enrichment (FACE)? A meta‐analytic review of the responses of photosynthesis, canopy properties, and plant production to rising CO2. New Phytologist, 165(2), 351-372. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2004.01224.x
  • Allen, C. D., & Breshears, D. D. (1998). Drought-induced shift of a forest–woodland ecotone: rapid landscape response to climate variation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 95(25), 14839-14842. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.95.25.14839
  • Altın, T. B., Barak, B., & Altın, B. N. (2012). Change in precipitation and temperature amounts over three decades in central Anatolia, Turkey. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 2(1), 107-125. doi:10.4236/acs.2012.21013
  • Anderegg, L. D., & HilleRisLambers, J. (2016). Drought stress limits the geographic ranges of two tree species via different physiological mechanisms. Global change biology, 22(3), 1029-1045. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13148
  • Archer, S. (2003). Proliferation of woody plants in grasslands and Savannas. Retrieved on, 24(10), 2005.
  • Archer, S., Boutton, T. W., & Hibbard, K. A. (2001). Trees in grasslands: biogeochemical consequences of woody plant expansion. In Global biogeochemical cycles in the climate system (pp. 115-137). Academic Press. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-012631260-7/50011-X
  • Aubin, I., Munson, A. D., Cardou, F., Burton, P. J., Isabel, N., Pedlar, J. H., ... & McKenney, D. (2016). Traits to stay, traits to move: a review of functional traits to assess sensitivity and adaptive capacity of temperate and boreal trees to climate change. Environmental Reviews, 24(2), 164-186. https://doi.org/10.1139/er-2015-0072
  • Bergès, L., Chevalier, R., Dumas, Y., Franc, A., & Gilbert, J. M. (2005). Sessile oak (Quercus petraea Liebl.) site index variations in relation to climate, topography and soil in even-aged high-forest stands in northern France. Annals of forest science, 62(5), 391-402. https://doi.org/10.1051/forest:2005035
  • Coe, M. T., Costa, M. H., & Soares-Filho, B. S. (2009). The influence of historical and potential future deforestation on the stream flow of the Amazon River–Land surface processes and atmospheric feedbacks. Journal of Hydrology, 369(1-2), 165-174. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.02.043
  • Chmielewski, F. M., & Rötzer, T. (2001). Response of tree phenology to climate change across Europe. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 108 (2), 101-112. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(01)00233-7
  • Cui, L., Wang, L., Lai, Z., Tian, Q., Liu, W., & Li, J. (2017). Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal air temperature and rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin, China during 1960–2015. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 164, 48-59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2017.08.001
  • Eastaugh, C., Eng, B., & St, G. C. N. R. (2008). Adaptations of forests to climate change: a multidisciplinary review.
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  • Jablonski, L. M., Wang, X., & Curtis, P. S. (2002). Plant reproduction under elevated CO2 conditions: a meta‐analysis of reports on 79 crop and wild species. New Phytologist, 156 (1), 9-26. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1469-8137.2002.00494.x
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  • Kobayashi, Y., Higa, M., Higashiyama, K., & Nakamura, F. (2020). Drivers of land-use changes in societies with decreasing populations: A comparison of the factors affecting farmland abandonment in a food production area in Japan. PLoS One, 15(7), e0235846. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0235846
  • Lambin, E. F., Geist, H. J., & Lepers, E. (2003). Dynamics of land-use and land-cover change in tropical regions. Annual review of environment and resources, 28(1), 205-241. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.28.050302.105459
  • Lobell, D. B., & Gourdji, S. M. (2012). The influence of climate change on global crop productivity. Plant physiology, 160(4), 1686-1697. https://doi.org/10.1104/pp.112.208298
  • Mendelsohn, R., Dinar, A. (2009). Land use and climate change interactions. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 1 (1), 309-332. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.resource.050708.144246
  • MGM, 2024. Gümüşhane ve Bayburt illeri meteoroloji istasyonları iklim verileri. Ankara (in Turkish).
  • Moratiel, R., Durán, J. M., & Snyder, R. L. (2010). Responses of reference evapotranspiration to changes in atmospheric humidity and air temperature in Spain. Climate research, 44(1), 27-40. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00919
  • Narsimlu, B., Gosain, A.K., Chahar, B.R., 2013. Assessment of future climate change impacts on water resources of Upper Sind River Basin, India using SWAT model. Water Resour. Manag. 27, 3647–3662. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0371-7.
  • Norby, R. J., Hartz‐Rubin, J. S., & Verbrugge, M. J. (2003). Phenological responses in maple to experimental atmospheric warming and CO2 enrichment. Global Change Biology, 9(12), 1792-1801. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2003.00714.x
  • Önol, B., Ünal, Y. S., & Dalfes, H. N. (2011). İklim değişimi senaryosunun Türkiye üzerindeki etkilerinin modellenmesi. İTÜDERGİSİ/d, 8(5).
  • Özdeş, M. (2023). Küresel İklim Değişikliği ve Çevresel Değişimlerin Etkisi Altında Arazi Değişim Biliminin Ortaya Çıkışı: Kurak ve Yarı Kurak Ekosistemlerde Arazi Değişimi. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, 21(2), 660-695. https://doi.org/10.33688/aucbd.1198890
  • Pardos, M., Del Río, M., Pretzsch, H., Jactel, H., Bielak, K., Bravo, F., ... & Calama, R. (2021). The greater resilience of mixed forests to drought mainly depends on their composition: Analysis along a climate gradient across Europe. Forest Ecology and Management, 481, 118687. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118687
  • Partal, T., & Kahya, E. (2006). Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data. Hydrological Processes: An International Journal, 20(9), 2011-2026. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.5993
  • Peltonen-Sainio, P., Jauhiainen, L., Hakala, K., & Ojanen, H. (2009). Climate change and prolongation of growing season: changes in regional potential for field crop production in Finland. Agricultural and Food Science 18: 171-190. https://doi.org/10.2137/145960609790059479
  • Perz, S. G. (2007). Grand theory and context-specificity in the study of forest dynamics: forest transition theory and other directions. The Professional Geographer, 59(1), 105-114. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9272.2007.00594.x
  • Perz, S. G., & Skole, D. L. (2003). Secondary forest expansion in the Brazilian Amazon and the refinement of forest transition theory. Society & Natural Resources, 16(4), 277-294. https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920390178856
  • Rudel, T.K., Coomes, O. T., Moran, E., Achard, F., Angelsen, A., Xu, J., & Lambin, E., 2005. Forest transitions: towards a global understanding of land use change. Global Environ Change Part A, 15(1), 23-31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.11.001
  • Ruosteenoja, K., Räisänen, J., & Pirinen, P. (2011). Projected changes in thermal seasons and the growing season in Finland. International Journal of Climatology, 31(10), 1473-1487. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2171
  • Salmi, T., Määttä, A., Anttila, P., Ruoho-Airola, T., & Amnell, T. (2002). Makesens 1.0. Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimates for the trend of annual data.
  • Sen, P. K. (1968). Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. Journal of the American statistical association, 63(324), 1379-1389. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934
  • Shao, J. A., Wei, C. F., & Xie, D. T. (2006). An insight on drivers of land use change at regional scale. Chinese Geographical Science, 16(2), 176-182. Shao, J. A., Wei, C. F., & Xie, D. T. (2006). An insight on drivers of land use change at regional scale. Chinese Geographical Science, 16(2), 176-182. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-006-0014-5
  • Smith, T. M., Leemans, R., & Shugart, H. H. (1992). Sensitivity of terrestrial carbon storage to CO2-induced climate change: comparison of four scenarios based on general circulation models. Climatic Change, 21(4), 367-384. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00141377
  • Southworth, J., Munroe, D., & Nagendra, H. (2004). Land cover change and landscape fragmentation-comparing the utility of continuous and discrete analyses for a western Honduras region. Agriculture, ecosystems & environment, 101(2-3), 185-205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2003.09.011
  • Swart, R. J. (2008). Impacts of Europe's changing climate-2008 indicator-based assessment (No. 4/2008). European Environment Agency (EEA).
  • Taylor, P. G., Cleveland, C. C., Wieder, W. R., Sullivan, B. W., Do¬ughty, C. E., Dobrowski, S. Z., & Townsend, A. R. (2017). Temperature and rainfall interact to control carbon cycling in tropical forests. Ecology Letters, 20(6), 779-788. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12765
  • Tesfaw, B.A., Dzwairo, B., Sahlu, D., 2023. Assessments of the impacts of land use/land cover change on water resources: tana Sub-Basin, Ethiopia. Journal of Water and Climate Change 14 (2), 421–441. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2023.303.
  • Thornthwaite, C. W., 1948. An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geographical Review, 38(1), 55-94. https://doi.org/10.2307/210739
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  • Türkeş, M. (2008a). İklim Değişikliği ve Küresel Isınma Olgusu: Bilimsel Değerlendirme. E. Karakaya (der.), Küresel Isınma ve Kyoto Protokolü: İklim Değişikliğinin Bilimsel, Ekonomik ve Politik Analizi içinde, İstanbul: Bağlam.
  • Türkeş, M. (2008b). Küresel iklim değişikliği nedir? Temel kavramlar, nedenleri, gözlenen ve öngörülen değişiklikler. İklim Değişikliği ve Çevre, 1(1), 26-37.
  • Türkes, M. (2012). Türkiye’de gözlenen ve öngörülen iklim değişikliği, kuraklık ve çölleşme. Ankara Üniversitesi Çevrebilimleri Dergisi, 4(2), 1-32. https://doi.org/10.1501/Csaum_0000000063
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  • Wessels, K. J., Mathieu, R., Erasmus, B. F. N., Asner, G. P., Smit, I. P. J., Van Aardt, J. A. N., ... & Jacobson, J. (2011). Impact of communal land use and conservation on woody vegetation structure in the Lowveld savannas of South Africa. Forest Ecology and Management, 261(1), 19-29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2010.09.012
  • Wessels, K. J., Prince, S. D., Zambatis, N., MacFadyen, S., Frost, P. E., Van Zyl, D. (2006). Relationship between herbaceous biomass and 1‐km 2 Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) NDVI in Kruger National Park, South Africa. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 27 (5), 951–973. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160500169098
  • White, P. S. (1979). Pattern, process, and natural disturbance in vegetation. The botanical review, 45, 229-299. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02860857
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  • Wu, Z., Dijkstra, P., Koch, G. W., Peñuelas, J., & Hungate, B. A. (2011). Responses of terrestrial ecosystems to temperature and precipitation change: A meta‐analysis of experimental manipulation. Global change biology, 17(2), 927-942. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02302.x
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  • Zhang, X., Harvey, K. D., Hogg, W. D., & Yuzyk, T. R. (2001). Trends in Canadian streamflow. Water Resources Research, 37(4), 987-998. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000WR9003
Toplam 79 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ormancılık (Diğer)
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Salih Malkoçoğlu

Ergün Kahveci

Gönderilme Tarihi 6 Temmuz 2024
Kabul Tarihi 8 Mayıs 2025
Yayımlanma Tarihi 25 Aralık 2025
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2025 Cilt: 25 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Malkoçoğlu, S., & Kahveci, E. (2025). Land Use/Land Cover Change Under Climate Change in a Semi-Arid Ecosystem: The Case of Gümüşhane-Bayburt Forest Management Directorate. Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty, 25(3), 323-340. https://doi.org/10.17475/kastorman.1845366
AMA Malkoçoğlu S, Kahveci E. Land Use/Land Cover Change Under Climate Change in a Semi-Arid Ecosystem: The Case of Gümüşhane-Bayburt Forest Management Directorate. Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty. Aralık 2025;25(3):323-340. doi:10.17475/kastorman.1845366
Chicago Malkoçoğlu, Salih, ve Ergün Kahveci. “Land Use/Land Cover Change Under Climate Change in a Semi-Arid Ecosystem: The Case of Gümüşhane-Bayburt Forest Management Directorate”. Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty 25, sy. 3 (Aralık 2025): 323-40. https://doi.org/10.17475/kastorman.1845366.
EndNote Malkoçoğlu S, Kahveci E (01 Aralık 2025) Land Use/Land Cover Change Under Climate Change in a Semi-Arid Ecosystem: The Case of Gümüşhane-Bayburt Forest Management Directorate. Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty 25 3 323–340.
IEEE S. Malkoçoğlu ve E. Kahveci, “Land Use/Land Cover Change Under Climate Change in a Semi-Arid Ecosystem: The Case of Gümüşhane-Bayburt Forest Management Directorate”, Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty, c. 25, sy. 3, ss. 323–340, 2025, doi: 10.17475/kastorman.1845366.
ISNAD Malkoçoğlu, Salih - Kahveci, Ergün. “Land Use/Land Cover Change Under Climate Change in a Semi-Arid Ecosystem: The Case of Gümüşhane-Bayburt Forest Management Directorate”. Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty 25/3 (Aralık2025), 323-340. https://doi.org/10.17475/kastorman.1845366.
JAMA Malkoçoğlu S, Kahveci E. Land Use/Land Cover Change Under Climate Change in a Semi-Arid Ecosystem: The Case of Gümüşhane-Bayburt Forest Management Directorate. Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty. 2025;25:323–340.
MLA Malkoçoğlu, Salih ve Ergün Kahveci. “Land Use/Land Cover Change Under Climate Change in a Semi-Arid Ecosystem: The Case of Gümüşhane-Bayburt Forest Management Directorate”. Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty, c. 25, sy. 3, 2025, ss. 323-40, doi:10.17475/kastorman.1845366.
Vancouver Malkoçoğlu S, Kahveci E. Land Use/Land Cover Change Under Climate Change in a Semi-Arid Ecosystem: The Case of Gümüşhane-Bayburt Forest Management Directorate. Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty. 2025;25(3):323-40.