Spherical Fuzzy AHP and Spherical Fuzzy TOPSIS-Based Goal Programming for Forest Fire Resource Allocation of Kastamonu Province

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 26 Sayı: 1, 75 - 94, 27.03.2026

Burcu Tezcan , Tamer Eren

https://doi.org/10.17475/kastorman.1916859

https://izlik.org/JA85AC93DU

Öz

Aim of study: The study aims to assess the risk of wildfires in Kastamonu to develop a resource allocation plan through an optimization approach for strategic resource allocation in firefighting.
Area of study: The total forest area in Kastamonu was 876314 hectares. The region around the Ilgaz Mountains, which are in the inland areas away from the coastline, was found to be vulnerable to fire risk.
Material and method: Four major criteria and twelve sub-criteria that affect fire occurrence were assessed using SF-AHP. The weights were shortlisted using SF-TOPSIS. After determining the fire-vulnerable regions, resource allocation was done using goal programming.
Main results: Proximity to power lines was found to be the most important factor affecting the forest fire risk, with a weight of 13.5%, followed by humidity levels with a weight of 12.6%. Human factors and meteorological factors played a crucial role in determining the fire risk. The results revealed that the highest fire risk occurred in the Taşköprü district.
Research highlights: This study contributed to the literature with a new approach in which fuzzy-based risk analysis and goal programming models were used for the first time.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Forest Fires , SF-AHP , SF-TOPSIS , Goal Programming

Kastamonu İlinin Orman Yangını Kaynak Tahsisi için Spherical Bulanık AHP ve Spherical Bulanık TOPSIS Tabanlı Hedef Programlama

https://izlik.org/JA85AC93DU

Öz

Çalışmanın amacı: Bu çalışma Kastamonu’nun orman yangını riski yüksek olan ilçesini belirleyerek kaynak tahsis planlaması yapılması amaçlanmıştır. Model orman yangınlarına en uygun ekipmanların atanmasını hedeflemektedir.
Çalışma alanı: Kastamonu 876314 hektar orman alanına sahiptir. Kıyıdan uzak iç kesimlerde bulunan Ilgaz Dağları’nın çevresi yangın riski açısından hassastır.
Materyal ve yöntem: 4 ana kriter ve alt kriterlerin belirlenmesi için SF-AHP yöntemi uygulanmış, ağırlıkların hesaplanması için ise SF-TOPSIS yöntemi tercih edilmiştir. Yangın riskine etki eden bölgelerin belirlenmesinden sonra, hedef programlama yöntemi ile kaynak tahsisi planlaması gerçekleştirilmiştir.
Temel sonuçlar: Orman yangını riski açısından en kritik % 13.5 ağırlıkla elektrik hatlarına yakınlık olup bu kriteri % 12.6 oranında nem seviyesi takip etmektedir. İnsan kaynaklı etkenlerin ve meteorolojik koşulların yangın riskini belirlemede önemlidir. Yapılan analizler sonucunda Taşköprü ilçesi en risklidir.
Araştırma vurguları: Literatürde ilk kez bulanık tabanlı risk analizi ve hedef programlama modeli birleştirilerek yeni bir yaklaşım sunulmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Orman Yangınları , SF-AHP , SF-TOPSIS , Hedef Programlama

Kaynakça

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