Kastamonu’da Küresel İklim Değişikliğine Bağlı Olarak Abies Yayılış Alanlarının Olası Değişimi

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 1, 81 - 91, 03.04.2024

Nihat Ertürk Burak Arıcak , Hakan Şevik , Nurcan Yiğit

https://doi.org/10.17475/kastorman.1460616

Cited By: 2

Öz

Çalışmanın amacı: Küresel iklim değişikliği (GCC) sürecinde özellikle orman ağaçları için ihtiyaç duyulan göç mekanizmasının insanlar tarafından sağlanması gerekmektedir. Bu amaçla daha önce yapılan çalışmaların aksine küçük alanlarda yapılacak detaylı çalışmalara ihtiyaç bulunmaktadır.
Çalışma alanı: Türkiye'nin en yüksek düzeyde odun üretimini gerçekleştiren Kastamonu Orman Bölge Müdürlüğü'nde gerçekleştirilen bu çalışmada Abies'lerin gerçek yayılış alanlarının belirlenmesi ve uygun yayılış alanlarındaki değişimlerin belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır.
Materyal ve yöntem: Bu çalışmada Kastamonu’da Abies için mevcut dağılım alanları ve gelecekteki potansiyel dağılım alanlarının yanı sıra 2040, 2070 ve 2100 yılları için SSP 126, SSP 370 ve SSP 585 senaryoları kullanılarak uygun dağılım alanları belirlenmiştir.
Temel sonuçlar: Bu çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlar, iklim değişikliğinin sonuçlarına bağlı olarak Abies populasyonlarının dağılım alanlarının gelecekte değişeceğini ve bu değişimin genel olarak artış şeklinde olacağını göstermiştir.
Araştırma vurguları: Çalışmaya konu tür (Abies), insan müdahalesi olmadan küresel iklim değişikliğine ayak uyduramayacaktır. Bu nedenle çalışma sonuçları dikkate alınarak orman amenajman planlarında gerekli değişikliklerin yapılması önerilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Küresel İklim Değişikliği, Abies nordmanniana, Abies, SSPs Senaryoları

Possible Change in Distribution Areas of Abies in Kastamonu due to Global Climate Change

Öz

Aim of the study: In the process of global climate change (GCC), the migration mechanism needed especially for forest trees must be provided by humans. For this purpose, contrary to the previous studies, detailed studies to be carried out on small areas are needed.
Area of study: In the present study carried out in Kastamonu Regional Directorate of Forestry, which performs the highest level of wood production in Türkiye, it was aimed to specify the actual distribution areas of the Abies and the change in their suitable distribution areas due to GCC.
Material and methods: In this study, besides the existing distribution areas and the potential future distribution areas, also the suitable distribution areas were determined by using SSP 126, SSP 370, and SSP 585 scenarios for the years 2040, 2070, and 2100 for Abies at Kastamonu.
Main results: The results achieved there showed that, depending on the results of climate change, distribution areas of Abies populations would change in the future and this change would be in form of an increase in general.
Research highlights: This species (Abies) seems incapable of keeping up with such changes without human intervention. Thus, considering the study results, it is recommended to make necessary amendments to the forest management plans.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Global Climate Change, Abies nordmanniana, Abies, SSPs Scenarios

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