THE EARLY IMPACTS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON THE GLOBAL TRADE

Yıl 2021, , 1027 - 1055, 21.12.2021

Veli Ahmet Çevik , Tülin Durukan

https://doi.org/10.36543/kauiibfd.2021.042

Cited By: 2

Öz

In the last days of 2019, many patients who complained of flu-like illness in Wuhan, Hubei province of China, were referred to the World Health Organization's China Office. After the increase in the number of people who got sick in the following days, Wuhan city was completely closed, people were banned from going out on the streets due to panic and fear, and production was stopped in factories in the industrial city and flights were canceled. Since China, which has become the production center of the world, is the world's second largest economy and leading trade country, the stagnation that occurred in the production lines due to the epidemic was felt all over the world. In this study, the economic weight of China, the country where the epidemic emerged and spread, and the first effects of the epidemic on the global economy were investigated, and it was concluded that the effects in the service sectors such as transportation and tourism were seen very early, but the effects in the industrial sector would not be seen in the short term thanks to the stocks on hand.

Anahtar Kelimeler

COVID 19, Coronavirus, Global Trade, Supply Chain

COVID-19 PANDEMİSİNİN KÜRESEL TİCARETE İLK ETKİLERİ

Öz

2019 yılının son günlerinde Çin’in Hubei eyaletinin Wuhan şehrinde grip benzeri hastalıktan şikâyet eden birçok hastanın sağlık kuruluşlarına müracaat etmesi Dünya Sağlık Örgütü’nün Çin Ofisine bildirilmiştir. Sonraki günlerde hastalanan insanların sayısının artmasının ardından Wuhan şehri tamamen kapatılmış, yaşanan panik ve korku ile insanların sokağa çıkması yasaklanmış ve sanayi kentindeki fabrikalarda üretimler durdurulmuş, uçak seferleri iptal edilmiştir. Dünyanın üretim merkezi haline gelen Çin, dünyanın ikinci büyük ekonomisi ve önde gelen ticaret ülkesi olduğundan, salgın nedeniyle üretim hatlarında ortaya çıkan durgunluk tüm dünyada hissedilmiştir. Bu çalışmada salgının ortaya çıktığı ve yayıldığı ülke olan Çin’in ekonomik ağırlığı, salgının küresel ekonomideki ilk etkileri araştırılmış, ulaştırma ve turizm gibi hizmet sektörlerindeki etkisinin sonuçları itibariyle çok erken görüldüğü ancak sanayi sektöründeki etkilerinin eldeki stoklar sayesinde kısa vadede görülmeyeceği ortaya çıkartılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

COVID-19, Koronavirüs, Küresel Ticaret, Tedarik Zinciri

Kaynakça

• Alcock, C. (2020). Aviation Industry Braces for Full Impact of Coronavirus Outbreak | Air Transport News: Aviation International News. 20 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/air-transport/2020-02-09/aviation-industry-braces-full-impact-coronavirus-outbreak adresinden erişildi.
• Atkinson, A. B. ve Brandolini, A. (2001). Promise and pitfalls in the use of" secondary" data-sets: Income inequality in OECD countries as a case study. Journal of economic literature, 39(3), 771–799.
• Bradstreet, D. (2020). Business Impact of the Coronavirus. 25 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.dnb.com/content/dam/english/economic-and-industry-insight/DNB_Business_Impact_of_the_Coronavirus_US.pdf adresinden erişildi.
• China Briefing. (2020). Cornavirus Impact: China Factory, Offices Reopening Schedules (Updated). 19 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.china-briefing.com/news/china-factory-offices-reopening-schedules-coronavirus-impact/ adresinden erişildi.
• Choi, T. Y., Rogers, D., & Vakil, B. (2020). Coronavirus is a wake-up call for supply chain management. Harvard Business Review, 27.
• Cunha, B. A. (2004). Influenza: historical aspects of epidemics and pandemics. Infectious Disease Clinics, 18(1), 141–155.
• Doggrell, K. (2020). Accor ‘to keep pedalling’ | Hotel Management. 20 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.hotelmanagement.net/transactions/accor-to-keep-pedalling adresinden erişildi.
• Dolan, D. (2020). Nissan to temporarily halt production at Japan factory due to coronavirus - Nikkei. 20 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nissan-temporarily-halt-production-japan-123711837.html adresinden erişildi.
• Dormido, H. ve Leung, A. (2020). Charting the Global Economic Impact of the Coronavirus. 20 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-global-economic-impact-of-wuhan-novel-coronavirus/ adresinden erişildi.
• Duddu, P. (2020). Coronavirus Thailand: Dealing with the coronavirus outbreak. 18 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/features/coronavirus-affected-countries-thailand-measures-impact-tourism/ adresinden erişildi.
• Eisenstein, P. A. (2020). China set to lose out on production of 1M vehicles as coronavirus closes car plants. 20 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/china-set-lose-out-production-1m-vehicles-coronavirus-closes-car-n1130846 adresinden erişildi.
• Ewing, J. (2020). Chinese Car Factories Idled by Virus Raise Risks to Global Growth - The New York Times. 20 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/business/coronavirus-china-auto-factories.html adresinden erişildi.
• Fildes, N. (2020). Coronavirus cancellations rock world’s biggest smartphone event | Financial Times. 20 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.ft.com/content/87d59b04-4c25-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5 adresinden erişildi.
• Financial Times. (2019). The great haul of China, illustrated | Financial Times. 20 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.ft.com/content/4975eb8a-0ab6-11ea-bb52-34c8d9dc6d84 adresinden erişildi.
• Financial Times. (2020a). Coronavirus will hit global growth | Financial Times. 20 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.ft.com/content/8be84270-4430-11ea-a43a-c4b328d9061c adresinden erişildi.
• Financial Times. (2020b). Coronavirus sends ripples through global economy | Financial Times. 20 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.ft.com/content/e9fbbb78-4901-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441 adresinden erişildi.
• Grigorian, G. (2020). Five Important Things To Know About Wuhan Apart From COVID-19 - Pandaily. 27 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://pandaily.com/five-important-things-to-know-about-wuhan-apart-from-covid-19/ adresinden erişildi.
• Gust, I. D., Hampson, A. W. ve Lavanchy, D. (2001a). Planning for the next pandemic of influenza. Reviews in Medical Virology, 11(1), 59–70.
• Gust, I. D., Hampson, A. W. ve Lavanchy, D. (2001b). Planning for the next pandemic of influenza. Reviews in Medical Virology.
• Hancock, A. (2020). Coronavirus: cruise industry caught in the eye of the storm | Financial Times. 20 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.ft.com/content/47dd134a-5230-11ea-90ad-25e377c0ee1f adresinden erişildi.
• Hancock, T. (2020). China says pneumonia outbreak linked to coronavirus | Financial Times. 18 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.ft.com/content/7ac8b004-3285-11ea-9703-eea0cae3f0de adresinden erişildi.
• Hancock, T. ve Cookson, C. (2020). How dangerous is China’s latest viral outbreak? | Financial Times. 18 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.ft.com/content/7a80b8c6-362c-11ea-a6d3-9a26f8c3cba4 adresinden erişildi.
• Haren, P. ve Simchi-Levi, D. (2020). How Coronavirus Could Impact the Global Supply Chain by Mid-March. 3 Mart 2020 tarihinde https://hbr.org/2020/02/how-coronavirus-could-impact-the-global-supply-chain-by-mid-march adresinden erişildi.
• Hays, J. N. (2005). Epidemics and pandemics: their impacts on human history. Abc-clio. Hernández, J. C. ve Ramzy, A. (2020). China Confirms New Coronavirus Spreads From Humans to Humans - The New York Times. 18 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/20/world/asia/coronavirus-china-symptoms.html adresinden erişildi.
• Hille, K. (2020). Coronavirus: Apple supplier Foxconn warns over revenue hit | Financial Times. 21 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.ft.com/content/a247239a-53b9-11ea-8841-482eed0038b1 adresinden erişildi.
• Hodal, K., Boseley, S. ve Wahlquist, C. (2020). Coronavirus: more cases and second death reported in China | World news | The Guardian. 18 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/17/corona-second-death-in-china-after-sars-like-outbreak adresinden erişildi.
• Holladay, A. J. ve Poole, J. C. F. (1979). Thucydides and the Plague of Athens. The Classical Quarterly, 29(2), 282–300.
• Holshue, M. L., DeBolt, C., Lindquist, S., Lofy, K. H., Wiesman, J., Bruce, H., … Pillai, S. K. (2020). First Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in the United States. New England Journal of Medicine.
• Hui, D. S., Azhar, E. I., Madani, T. A., Ntoumi, F., Kock, R., Dar, O., … Petersen, E. (2020). The continuing 2019-nCoV epidemic threat of novel coronaviruses to global health The latest 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 91, 264–266.
• Huifeng, H. (2020). Why Wuhan is so important to China’s economy and the potential impact of the coronavirus | South China Morning Post. 19 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3047426/explained-why-wuhan-so-important-chinas-economy-and-potential adresinden erişildi.
• IATA. (2020). COVID-19 Initial impact assessment of the novel Coronavirus. 25 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/coronavirus-initial-impact-assessment/ adresinden erişildi.
• ICAO. (2020). Economic impact estimates due to COVID-19 travel bans. 20 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.icao.int/Newsroom/Pages/Economic-impact-estimates-due-to-COVID-19-travel-bans.aspx adresinden erişildi.
• IMF. (2019). Prolonged Uncertainty Weighs on Asia’s Economy. 26 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2019/10/18/na102319-prolonged-uncertainty-weighs-on-asias-economy adresinden erişildi.
• Inagaki, K. (2020). Japan identifies first case of virus that originated in China | Financial Times. 18 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.ft.com/content/a99a8cfa-3810-11ea-a6d3-9a26f8c3cba4 adresinden erişildi.
• Iwamoto, K. (2020). Singapore Airshow loses COMAC and Bombardier over virus fears - Nikkei Asian Review. 20 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/Singapore-Airshow-loses-COMAC-and-Bombardier-over-virus-fears adresinden erişildi.
• Johnston, M. P. (2017). Secondary data analysis: A method of which the time has come. Qualitative and quantitative methods in libraries, 3(3), 619–626.
• Keogh-Brown, M. R. ve Smith, R. D. (2008). The economic impact of SARS: How does the reality match the predictions? Health Policy, 88(1), 110–120.
• Lee, J. W. ve McKibbin, W. J. (2004). Estimating the global economic costs of SARS. Learning from SARS: preparing for the next disease outbreak: workshop summary içinde (s. 92). National Academies Press Washington, DC.
• Lee, Y. N. (2020). Coronavirus: Charts show global economy more vulnerable now than during SARS. 19 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/05/coronavirus-how-china-economy-has-changed-since-sars.html adresinden erişildi.
• Miller, J. (2020). European companies face coronavirus hit to supply chains | Financial Times. 27 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.ft.com/content/67e2d35c-589b-11ea-a528-dd0f971febbc adresinden erişildi.
• New York Times. (2020). Opinion | As Fears of Wuhan’s Coronavirus Spread - The New York Times. 19 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/31/opinion/letters/wuhan-coronavirus.html adresinden erişildi.
• Paris, C. (2020). Coronavirus Toll on Shipping Reaches $350 Million a Week - WSJ. 20 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-toll-on-shipping-reaches-350-million-a-week-11581366671 adresinden erişildi.
• Pasley, J. (2020). Photos show Wuhan virus’ impact on people traveling for Lunar New Year - Business Insider. 18 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-lunar-new-year-photos-largest-annual-human-migration-2020-1 adresinden erişildi.
• Potter, C. W. (2001). A history of influenza. Journal of Applied Microbiology, 91(4), 572–579.
• Qin, A. ve Hernández, J. C. (2020). China Reports First Death From New Virus - The New York Times. 18 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/10/world/asia/china-virus-wuhan-death.html adresinden erişildi.
• Qin, A. ve Wang, V. (2020). Wuhan, Center of Coronavirus Outbreak, Is Being Cut Off by Chinese Authorities - The New York Times. 18 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/22/world/asia/china-coronavirus-travel.html adresinden erişildi.
• Riley, D. (2020). Report: Smartphone manufacturing, 5G and fiber optics hit hard by coronavirus - SiliconANGLE. 20 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://siliconangle.com/2020/02/18/report-smartphone-manufacturing-5g-fiber-optics-hit-hard-coronavirus/ adresinden erişildi.
• Schatteman, O., Woodhouse, D., & Terino, J. (2020). Supply Chain Lessons from Covid-19: Time to Refocus on Resilience | Bain & Company. Retrieved July 23, 2020, from https://www.bain.com/insights/supply-chain-lessons-from-covid-19/ adresinden erişildi.
• Sheffi, Y. (2020). Commentary: Supply-Chain Risks From the Coronavirus Demand Immediate Action - WSJ. 27 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.wsj.com/articles/commentary-supply-chain-risks-from-the-coronavirus-demand-immediate-action-11582054704 adresinden erişildi.
• Shira, D. (2020). China Extends Lunar New Year Holiday to Feb 2, Shanghai to Feb 9. 18 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.china-briefing.com/news/china-extends-lunar-new-year-holiday-february-2-shanghai-february-9-contain-coronavirus-outbreak/ adresinden erişildi.
• Siu, A. ve Wong, Y. C. R. (2004). Economic impact of SARS: the case of Hong Kong. Asian Economic Papers, 3(1), 62–83.
• Smith, J. (2020). Port of Los Angeles Sees Coronavirus Impact Sharply Reducing Imports - WSJ. 26 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.wsj.com/articles/port-of-los-angeles-sees-coronavirus-impact-sharply-reducing-imports-11582648931 adresinden erişildi.
• Statista. (2020). • Chart: Stock Markets Drop as Global Coronavirus Spread Continues | Statista. 27 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.statista.com/chart/20942/stock-markets-global-coronavirus/ adresinden erişildi.
• Taylor, A. (2020). Wuhan: The Chinese mega-city at the center of coronavirus outbreak - The Washington Post. 18 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/23/wuhan-chinese-mega-city-center-coronavirus-outbreak/ adresinden erişildi.
• Team, T. N. C. P. E. R. E. (2020). The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19). China CDC Weekly 2020. http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51 adresinden erişildi.
• The Economist Intelligence Unit. (2020). Coronavirus: four scenarios for China’s economy. 19 Şubat 2020 tarihinde http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=609020044&Country=China&topic=Economy adresinden erişildi.
• UNCTAD. (2020). UNCTADstat - General Profile. 20 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://unctadstat.unctad.org/ adresinden erişildi.
• WHO. (2020a). Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) SITUATION REPORT - 1. 18 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200121-sitrep-1-2019-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=20a99c10_4 adresinden erişildi.
• WHO. (2020b). WHO | Pneumonia of unknown cause – China. 18 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.who.int/csr/don/05-january-2020-pneumonia-of-unkown-cause-china/en/ adresinden erişildi.
• Woetzel, J. (2019). China and the world: Inside the dynamics of a changing relationship.
• Woodhouse, A. (2020). CDC confirms 15th case of the disease in the US — as it happened | Financial Times. 19 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.ft.com/content/a8190d19-137b-39fb-aa5e-f5b55b2d9ce2 adresinden erişildi.
• worldmeters.info. (2020). Coronavirus Cases: Total and Daily with Charts and Statistics - Worldometer. 18 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/ adresinden erişildi.
• WTTC. (2020). Chinese and Asian tourists must not be stigmatised because of the coronavirus, says WTTC | WTTC. 20 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.wttc.org/about/media-centre/press-releases/press-releases/2020/chinese-and-asian-tourists-must-not-be-stigmatised-because-of-the-coronavirus/ adresinden erişildi.
• Zandi, M. (2020). Coronavirus: The Global Economic Threat. 26 Şubat 2020 tarihinde https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2020/china-coronavirus.pdf adresinden erişildi.