COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE RELATIONSHIP: THE CASE OF OECD COUNTRIES

Öz

Covid-19 pandemic has caused the decrease in the production and supply chain as well as demand for good and service of countries, millions of people become unemployed, pronounced volatility in financial markets, and eventually to recession. According to the World Bank estimates, the global economic growth rate decreased by 4.5% to 6%, 95 million people were included in the extreme poverty, and according to the World Trade Organization estimates, global trade decreased by 5.3% in 2020. However, in the same year, global employment losses reached 110 million people, global labor income decreased by 8.3%, and the number of unemployed increased by 33 million people. In the OECD, while unemployment rates were 5% before the pandemic, it increased to 8% during the pandemic. In this study, the effect of the Covid-19 epidemic on unemployment rates was investigated in the example of OECD countries, using panel data methods for the period March 2020-2021. The AMG estimator revealed that unemployment rates increase as the number of deaths due to Covid-19 in OECD countries increases. On the other hand, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test showed that there is a two-way relationship between the number of people who lost their lives due to Covid-19 and unemployment rates in OECD countries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• : Covid-19 pandemic
• unemployment
• panel data analysis

COVİD-19 SALGINI VE İŞSİZLİK ORANLARI İLİŞKİSİ: OECD ÜLKELERİ ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

Covid-19 salgını, ülkelerin üretim ve tedarik zincirlerinin sekteye uğramasına, mal ve hizmet talebinin önemli ölçüde düşmesine ve milyonlarca insanın işsiz kalmasına, finansal piyasalarda oynaklıklara, neticede ülkelerin resesyona girmesine neden olmuştur. Dünya Bankası tahminlerine göre 2020 yılında küresel ekonomik büyüme oranı %4.5 ila %6 kadar azalmış, 95 milyon kişi aşırı yoksul sınıfına dâhil olmuş, Dünya Ticaret Örgütü tahminlerine göre ise küresel ticaret %5.3 oranında düşmüştür. Bununla birlikte aynı yılda, küresel istihdam kayıpları 110 milyon kişiye ulaşmış, küresel emek geliri %8.3 oranında düşmüş, işsiz sayısı 33 milyon kişi artmıştır. OECD genelinde işsizlik oranları salgın öncesinde %5 düzeylerinde iken, salgın sürecinde %8 seviyelerine kadar çıkmıştır. Bu çalışmada, OECD ülkeleri kapsamında, Covid-19 salgınının işsizlik oranları üzerindeki etkisi 2020 Mart-2021 Mart dönemi için panel veri yöntemleri kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. AMG tahmincisi bulgularına göre OECD ülkelerinde Covid-19 nedeniyle hayatını kaybedenlerin sayısı arttıkça işsizlik oranları artmaktadır. Dumitrescu-Hurlin nedensellik testi bulgularına göre OECD ülkelerinde Covid-19 nedeniyle hayatını kaybedenlerin sayısı ile işsizlik oranları arasında iki yönlü bir ilişki vardır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Covid-19 salgını
• işsizlik
• panel veri analizi

Kaynakça

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