THE IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL ENERGY PRICES ON WORLD TRADE: PANEL EVIDENCE OF GRAVITY MODELS FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES

Yıl 2021, , 946 - 974, 21.12.2021

Memduh Alper Demir , Utku Utkulu

https://doi.org/10.36543/kauiibfd.2021.039

Öz

The aim of this article is to examine the impacts of prices of energy and non-energy goods on world trade by including some variables that affect trade for selected countries within the framework of relative prices. The relevant literature confirms that the bilateral trade is theoretically analyzed by using the gravity models. The theoretical gravity models can be empirically applied by using the various panel regression techniques. In this study, three types of panel regression techniques are employed to define the effects of independent variables in the case of trade as the dependent variable. These are Stochastic Frontier, Random Effects, and Fixed Effects Filtered Estimator techniques. According to our panel regression findings, the price increases in the index of energy goods have negative effects on the exports, resulting in the terms of trade being against the countries in this case. Findings suggest that socio- economic policies preventing energy prices from rising need to be developed. Raising the supply to meet the increasing demand could be one of the major policies. Considering the other variables in the model, empirical evidence suggests that world trade volume can be increased not only by strengthening growth policies, ensuring competitiveness in the market, and providing effective logistics management but also by ensuring cultural cooperation, developing business partnerships among the similar income-level countries, and increasing and/or diversifying energy supply.

Anahtar Kelimeler

World trade, energy prices, gravity models of bilateral trade, panel random effects, fixed effects filtered and stochastic frontier estimation methods

THE IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL ENERGY PRICES ON WORLD TRADE: PANEL EVIDENCE OF GRAVITY MODELS FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES

Öz

Bu makalenin amacı, enerji fiyatları ile enerji dışı malların fiyatlarının, nispi fiyatlar çerçevesinde ve ticareti etkileyen diğer bazı değişkenler de ilave edilerek, dünya ticareti üzerindeki etkisini seçilmiş ülkeler için incelemektir. İlgili literatür, iki yönlü ticaretin çekim modelleri kullanılarak teorik olarak analiz edildiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Teorik çekim modeli analizi ampirik olarak çeşitli panel regresyon teknikleri ile uygulanabilmektedir. Araştırmada, bağımsız değişkenlerin bağımlı değişken olan ticaret üzerindeki etkisini belirlemede üç tür panel regresyon tekniği kullanılmıştır. Bunlar, stokastik sınır, rassal etkiler ve filtrelenen sabit etkiler tahmincisi teknikleridir. Elde edilen panel regresyon bulguları, enerji malları fiyat endeksindeki artışın ihracat üzerinde negatif etkide bulunduğunu, bu durumda da dış ticaret hadlerinin ilgili ülkelerin aleyhine olduğunu göstermektedir. Bulgular, enerji fiyatlarının yükselmesini engelleyecek sosyo-ekonomik politikalar geliştirilmesi gerektiğine işaret etmektedir. Artan talebi karşılamak için arzı arttırmak, temel politikalardan birisi olabilir. Modeldeki diğer değişkenler dikkate alındığında, elde edilen ampirik bulgular, büyüme yönlü politikaların arttırılması, piyasalarda rekabetçiliğin sağlanması ve etkili lojistik yönetiminin gerçekleştirilmesinin yanı sıra kültürel iş birliğinin sağlanması, benzer gelir seviyesindeki ülkelerin iş ortaklıklarının geliştirilmesi, enerji arzının arttırılması ve/veya çeşitlendirilmesi ile dünya ticaret hacminin artırılabileceğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Dünya ticareti, enerji fiyatları, iki-yönlü ticaretin çekim modelleri, panel rassal etkiler, filtrelenen sabit etkiler ve stokastik sınır tahmin yöntemleri

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