DETERMINANTS OF THE SURGES IN CAPITAL INFLOWS: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 22, 1048 - 1074, 29.12.2020

Cemil Varlık

https://doi.org/10.36543/kauiibfd.2020.045

Öz

SERMAYE GİRİŞLERİNDEKİ AŞIRI ARTIŞLARIN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

ÖZ
Bu makalede Türkiye ekonomisinin 1997:12-2019:12 dönemine ait aylık verileri kullanılarak, brüt ve net toplam sermaye girişleri ile bunların bileşenlerindeki aşırı artışların belirleyicileri araştırılmaktadır. Probit model tahminleri, portföy ve diğer yatırım girişlerindeki aşırı artışlar için hem yurtiçi hem de küresel faktörlerin önemli olduğunu; toplam sermaye girişleri ile doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişlerindeki aşırı artışlar için ise yurtiçi değişkenlerin açıklama gücünün daha yüksek olduğunu göstermektedir. Ulaşılan bulgulara göre; brüt sermaye girişlerine dair veriler, net girişlere ait verilerden daha anlamlı sonuçlar vermektedir. Ayrıca yurtiçi sanayi üretimindeki, reel döviz kurundaki, küresel büyümedeki ve küresel likiditedeki artışlar, sermaye girişlerinin doğrudan yabancı yatırım dışında kalan bileşenlerinde aşırı artış olasılığını yükseltmektedir. Doğrudan yatırım girişlerindeki aşırı artışların belirli yurtiçi ve küresel değişkenlere tepkisi, diğer bileşenlerinkinden oldukça farklıdır. İlave olarak, brüt portföy girişlerindeki aşırı artışlar finansal kırılganlığa; brüt doğrudan yatırım ve brüt diğer yatırım girişlerindeki aşırı artışlar ise makroekonomik istikrarsızlığa daha duyarlıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Brüt sermaye girişleri, Aşırı sermaye girişleri, Çeken ve iten faktörler

Kaynakça

• Abiad, A., Leigh, D., & Mody, A. (2009). Financial integration, capital mobility, and income convergence. Economic Policy, 24, 241-305.
• Agosin, M. R., & Huaita, F. (2012). Overreaction in capital flows to emerging markets: booms and sudden stops. Journal of International Money and Finance, 31(5), 1140–1155.
• Ahmed, S., & Zlate, A. (2014). Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?. Journal of International Money and Finance, 48, 221-248.
• Baek, S. G., & Song, C. Y. (2016). On the determinants of surges and stops in foreign loans: An empirical investigation. Open Economies Review, 27, 405–445.
• Balakrishnan, R., Nowak, S., Panth, S., & Wu, Y. (2012). Surging capital flows to emerging Asia: Facts, impacts and responses. IMF Working Paper, No. 12/130.
• Burger, M. J., & Ianchovichina, E.I. (2017). Surges and stops in greenfield and M&A FDI flows to developing countries: analysis by mode of entry. Review of World Economy, 153, 411–432.
• Caballero, J. A. (2016). Do surges in international capital inflows influence the likelihood of banking crises?. The Economic Journal, 126, 281–316.
• Calderon, C., & Kubota, M. (2013). Sudden stops: Are global and local investors alike?. Journal of International Economics, 89, 122–142.
• Calderon, C., & Kubota, M. (2019). Ride the Wild Surf: An investigation of the drivers of surges in capital inflows. Journal of International Money and Finance, 92, 12–136.
• Calvo, G. A., Leiderman, L., & Reinhart, C. M. (1993). Capital inflows and real exchange rate appreciation in Latin America: The role of external factors. IMF Staff Papers, 40(1), 108-151.
• Calvo, G., Izquierdo, A., & Mejia, L. (2004). On the empirics of sudden Stops: The relevance of balance-sheet effects. NBER Working Paper, No.10520.
• Calvo, G., Izquierdo, A., & Mejia, L. (2008). Systemic sudden stops: The relevance of balance-sheet effects and financial integration. NBER Working Paper, No.14026.
• Cardarelli, R., Elekdag, S., & Kose, M. (2010). Capital inflows: macroeconomic implications and policy responses. Economic Systems, 34(4), 333–56.
• Crystallin, M., Efremidze, L., Kim, S., Nugroho, W., Sula, O., & Willett, T. (2015). How common are capital flows surges? How they are measured matters -a lot. Open Economies Review, 26, 663–682.
• Dell’Erba, S., & Reinhardt, D. (2015). FDI, Debt and capital controls. Journal of International Money and Finance, 58, 29–50.
• Fernandez-Arias, E. (1996). The new wave of private capital inflows: push or pull?. Journal of Development Economies, 48(2), 389–418.
• Forbes, K. J., & Warnock, F. E. (2012). Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment. Journal of International Economics, 88(2), 235-251.
• Forbes, K. J., & Warnock, F. E. (2014). Debt- and equity-led capital flow episodes. In D.M. Fuentes, C.E. Raddatz & C.M. Reinhart (Eds.), Capital mobility and monetary policy (pp. 291-322), Santiago, Chile: Central Bank of Chile.
• Fratzscher, M. (2012). Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis. Journal of International Economics, 88(2), 341-356.
• Friedrich, C., & Guérin, P. (2016). The dynamics of capital flow episodes. Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper, No.9.
• Furceri, D., Guichard, S., & Rusticelli, E. (2012). Episodes of large capital inflows, banking and currency crises, and sudden stops. International Finance, 15(1), 1–35.
• Ghosh, A. R., Qureshi, M. S., Kim, J. I., & Zalduendo, J. (2014). Surges. Journal of International Economics, 92(2), 266-285.
• Ghosh, A. R. & Qureshi, M. S. (2016). Capital inflow surges and consequences. ADBI Working Paper Series, No. 585. Hannan, S. A. (2017). The drivers of capital flows in emerging markets post global financial crisis. IMF Working Paper, No.17/52.
• Ibarra, R. & Tellez-Leon, E. (2020). Are all types of capital flows driven by the same factors? Evidence from Mexico. Empirical Economics, 59, 461-502.
• Koepke, R. (2019). What drives capital flows to emerging markets? A survey of the empirical literatüre. Journal of Economic Surveys, 33(2), 516–540.
• Li, S., De Haan, J., & Scholtens, B. (2018). Surges of international fund flows. Journal of International Money and Finance, 82, 97–119.
• Qureshi, M. S. & Sugawara, N. (2018). Surges and reversals in capital flows. International Review of Economics and Finance, 56, 92–98.
• Reinhart, C. M. & Reinhart, V. R. (2008). Capital flow bonanzas: An encompassing view of the past and present. NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, June 20-21.
• Yeşin, P. (2015). Capital flow waves to and from Switzerland before and after the financial crisis. SNB Working Paper, No.1/2015.