AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND UNEMPLOYMENT: CASE OF SELECTED DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 24, 975 - 999, 21.12.2021

H. Nehrin Tunalı Sarı

https://doi.org/10.36543/kauiibfd.2021.040

Cited By: 1

Öz

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, ekonomik büyüme ve işsizlik arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olup olmadığının incelenmesidir. Çalışmada ekonomik açıdan gelişmekte olan ülke statüsünde yer alan Macaristan, Meksika, Polonya, Şili ve Türkiye’nin 2005:Q1-2019:Q1 dönemine ait işsizlik oranı ve Reel Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hâsıla (RGSYH) makroekonomik göstergelerine ait çeyrek veriler kullanılmıştır. Bu iki değişken arasındaki ilişkinin varlığı panel veri analizi yöntemlerinden faydalanılarak test edilmektedir. İnceleme kapsamında yer alan ülkelere ait veriler kullanılarak yapılan analizlerden elde edilen bulgulara göre, söz konusu dönemde bu ülkelerde işsizlik ve büyüme arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin mevcut olmadığı saptanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İktisadi Büyüme, İşsizlik, Panel Veri Analizi, Okun Yasası

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND UNEMPLOYMENT: CASE OF SELECTED DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Öz

The main purpose of this study is to examine whether there is a long-term relationship between the economic growth and unemployment. The unemployment rate belonging to 2005:Q1 - 2019:Q1 period of Hungary, Mexico, Poland, Chile and Turkey taking place in economically developing country status and quarterly data belonging to Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) macroeconomic indicators have been used in the study. The existence of the relationship between these two variables is tested by benefiting from the panel data analysis methods. It has been determined that there was no long-term relationship between the unemployment and growth in these countries during the said period according to the findings obtained from the analysis made by using the data of the countries taking place within the scope of the study.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic Growth, Unemployment, Panel Data Analysis, Okun’s Law

Kaynakça

• Altunöz, U. (2015). Reel Büyüme ve İşsizlik Bağlamında Türkiye İçin Okun Yasası Analizi. Kamu İş, 14 (1), 29-44.
• Arı, A. (2016). Türkiye’deki Ekonomik Büyüme ve İşsizlik İlişkisinin Analizi: Yeni Bir Eşbütünleşme Testi. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4 (2), 57-67.
• Arrow, K. J. (1962). The Economic Implications Of Learning By Doing. The Review Of Economic Studies, 29(3), 155-173.
• Barro, R. J. (1990). Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 103-125.
• Barbieri, L. (2006). Panel Unit Root Tests: A Review, Quaderni del Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche E Sociali, 43, 1-53.
• Barışık, S., Çevik, E. İ., & Çevik N. K. (2010). Türkiye’de Okun Yasası, Asimetri İlişkisi ve İstihdam Yaratmayan Büyüme: Markov-Switching Yaklaşımı. Maliye Dergisi, 159, 88-102.
• Binet, M.E., & Facchini, F. (2013). Okun's Law in the French Regions: A Cross-Regional Comparison. Economics Bulletin, 33 (1), 420-433.
• Christopoulos, D. K. (2004). The Relationship Between Output and Unemployment: Evidence from Greek regions. Papers in Regional Science, 83, 611–620.
• Coombs, R., Saviotti, P., & Walsh, V. (1987). Economics and Technological Change (1. Baskı). USA: Rowman & Liitlefield Publishing.
• Davidson, P. (1994). Post Keynesian Macroeconomic Theory: A Foundation for Successful Economic Policies for The Twenty-First Century. England: Edward Elgar Publishing.
• Evans, G.W. (1989). Output and Unemployment Dynamics in the United States: 1950–1985. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 4 (3), 213-237.
• Forstater, M. (2001). Unemployment in Capitalist Economies: A History of Thought for Thinking About Policy. Center For Full Employment And Price Stability,16, 1-20.
• Freeman, D.G. (2000). Regional Tests of Okun's Law. International Advances in Economic Research, 6 (3), 557–570.
• Friedman, B.M., & Wachter, M.L. (1974). Unemployment: Okun's Law, Labor Force and Productivity. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 56 (2), 167-176.
• Friedman, M. (1977). Inflation And Unemployment. Journal Of Political Economy, 85 (3), 454-459.
• Gali, J. (1999). Techonology, Employment and The Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?. American Economic Review, 89 (1), 249-271. Gordon, R. J. (1990). What Is New-Keynesian Economics. Journal Of Economic Literature, 28 (3), 1115-1171.
• Harris, R., & Silverstone, B. (2000). Asymmetric Adjustment of Unemployment and Output in New Zealand: Rediscovering Okun’s Law. Department of Economics Working Paper Series, 2/00, 1-23.
• Harrison, F. E. (1996). Economic Development. USA: Praeger Publishers.
• Izyumov, A., & Vahaly, J. (2002). The Unemployment-Output Tradeoff in Transition Economies: Does Okun’s Law Apply?. Economics of Planning, 35 (4), 317-331.
• Kaldor, N. (1957). A Model of Economic Growth. The Economic Journal, 67 (268), 591-624.
• Keynes, J. M. (2018). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. UK: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Lipsey, R.G., Steiner, P. O., & Purvis, D. D. (1984). Economics. New York: Harper and Row Publishers.
• Lucas, R.E. & Rapping L.A. (1969). Real Wages, Employment and Inflation. The University of Chicago Press Journals, 77 (5), 721-754.
• Lucas, R. E. (1988). On The Mechanics Of Economic Development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 3-42.
• Marinkov M., & Geldenhuys J.P. (2007). Cyclical Unemployment and Cyclical Output: An Estımatıon of Okun's Coeffıcient for South Africa. South Africa Journal of Economics, 75 (3), 373-390.
• Marx, K. (2012). Das Kapital. Mehmet Selik & Nail Satlıgan (Çev.). İstanbul: Yordam Yayınları.
• Mıhçı, S., & Atılgan E. (2010). İşsizlik ve büyüme: Türkiye ekonomisi için Okun katsayıları. İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 25 (296), 33-54.
• Modigliani, F. (1944). Liquidity Preference and the Theory of Interest and Money. Econometrica, 12 (1), 45-88.
• Mucuk, M., Edirneligil, A., & Gerçeker, M. (2017). The Relationship Between Unemployment Rate and Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(1), 1-8.
• Okun, A. M. (1962). Potential Gnp: Its Measurement and Significance. In Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section of the American Statistical Association, 89–104.
• Özdemir, B. K., & Yıldırım, S. (2013). Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme ve İstihdam Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisinin Analizi: Özçıkarımlı Dalgacık Yaklaşımı. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 38, 97-115.
• Palmerio, G. (1991). Perspectives on Economic Thought. England: Ashgate Publishing.
• Patinkin, D. (1948). Price Flexibility And Full Employment. American Economic Association, 38 (4), 543-564.
• Prachowny, M. F. J. (1993). Okun’s Law: Theoretical Foundations And Revised Estimates. The Review of Economic And Statics, 75 (2), 331-336.
• Romer, P.M. (1986). Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growt. Journal Of Political Economy, 94 (5), 1002-1037.
• Ricardo, D. (1821). On The Principles Of Political Economy And Taxation. Canada: Batoche Books.
• Rodenburg, P. (2007). Derived Measurement in Macroeconomics: Two Approaches for Measuring the NAIRU Considered. Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper, 17 (1), 1-31.
• Skaggs, N.T. (1999). Adam Smith on Growth and Credit, Too Weak a Connection?. Journal of Economic Studies, 26 (6), 481-496.
• Silva, S., Hadri, K., & Tremayne A.R. (2009). Panel Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Cross-Sectional Dependence: Finite Sample Performance and an Application. The Econometrics Journal, 12 (2), 340-366.
• Smith, A. (1904). The Wealth of Nations. Indianapolis: Liberty Classics.
• Soylu, Ö. B., Çakmak, İ., & Okur, F. (2018). Economic Growth and Unemployment İssue: Panel Data Analysis in Eastern European Countries. Journal of International Studies, 11(1), 93-107.
• Szostak, R. (2009). The Causes of Economic Growth. Germany: Springer.
• Tarı, R., & Abasız, T. (2010). Asimetrik Etkiler Altında Okun Yasası’nın Eşik Hata Düzeltme Modeli ile Sınanması: Türkiye Örneği. İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 25 (291), 53-77.
• Tcherneva, P., & Wray L. R. (2005). Is Argentinas Job Creation Project Jefes de Hogar A True Employer of Last Resort Program?. Center for Full Employment And Price Stability, 43, 1-26.
• Turan, G. (2015). Growth and Unemployment in Turkey. Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 77773, 1-15.
• Viren, M. (2001). The Okun curve is non-linear. Economic Letters, 70 (2), 253-257.
• Weber, C.E. (1995). Cyclical Output, Cyclical Unemployment, and Okun's Law: A new Approach. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10 (4), 433-445.
• Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69 (6), 709-748.
• Wray, L. R. (2007). The Employer of Last Resort Programme: Could It Work for Developing Countries?. Economic And Labour Working Papers, 5, 1-46.
• Yeldan, E. (2009). The Economics of Growth and Distribution. Ankara: Eflatun Yayınevi.
• Zhang, W.B. (2005). Economic Growth Theory: Capital, Knowledge and Economic Structures. USA: Ashgate Publishing Company.