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Pollution Haven, Pollution Halo, or Pollution Hell? The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on CO2 Emission and Temperature Rise in Fragile Five Countries

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 32, 134 - 149, 30.05.2025

Emre Özsalman , Ömer Faruk Derindağ , Tayfur Bayat

https://doi.org/10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.1634138

Öz

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate how foreign direct investment (FDI) affects the environmental quality of the Fragile Five countries, with a particular emphasis on how it may transfer ecologically damaging sectors to host countries. The link between FDI inflow, CO2 emissions, and temperature rise in the selected countries between 1970 and 2021 is specifically examined.
Design/methodology: The Panel Fourier Granger Causality Test is used in the study to examine the causative relationships among temperature rise, CO2 emissions, and FDI. In order to effectively approximate the structural breaks in the series, Bahmani-Oskooee et al. (2014) Panel Unit Root Test with Sharp and Smooth Breaks was used. Additionally, the Pollution Haven Hypothesis (PHH) is tested for the selected countries.
Findings: In the Fragile Five countries, the findings show a causal relationship between CO2 emissions and temperature rise, as well as between FDI inflow and CO2 emissions. PHH for these countries is supported by these findings, which also imply that FDI inflows worsen environmental deterioration and contribute to warming.
Originality/value: This study contributes to the body of literature by offering empirical proof of the long-term environmental effects of FDI inflows into the Fragile Five countries. Additionally, the PHH is tested for selected countries and one-way causality from FDI to CO2 emission reveals that PHH is valid for selected countries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Foreign Direct Investment CO2 Emission Temperature Rise Pollution Haven

Kaynakça

  • Adebayo, T. S., & Odugbesan, J. A. (2021). Modeling CO 2 emissions in South Africa: empirical evidence from ARDL based bounds and wavelet coherence techniques. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28, 9377–9389. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-11442-3/Published
  • Akbostanci, E., Tunç, G. I., & Türüt-Aşik, S. (2007). Pollution haven hypothesis and the role of dirty industries in Turkey’s exports. Environment and Development Economics, 12(2), 297–322. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1355770X06003512
  • Alper, A. E., Alper, F. O., Cil, A. B., Iscan, E., & Eren, A. A. (2023). Stochastic convergence of ecological footprint: new insights from a unit root test based on smooth transitions and nonlinear adjustment. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(8), 22100–22114. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23763-6
  • An, H., Razzaq, A., Haseeb, M., & W Mihardjo, L. W. (n.d.). The role of technology innovation and people’s connectivity in testing environmental Kuznets curve and pollution heaven hypotheses across the Belt and Road host countries: new evidence from Method of Moments Quantile Regression. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-10775-3/Published
  • Apergis, N., Pinar, M., & Unlu, E. (2023). How do foreign direct investment flows affect carbon emissions in BRICS countries? Revisiting the pollution haven hypothesis using bilateral FDI flows from OECD to BRICS countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(6), 14680–14692. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23185-4
  • Bağlıtaş, H. H., & Yaprak Öztürk, Z. (2019). An Empirical Analysis of Fragile Five In The Context of The Pollution Haven Hypothesis. In S. Coban, S. W. Dalpour, C. Marangoz, & E. Bulut (Eds.), Recent Economic Approaches and Financial Corporate Policy (pp. 71–94). IJOPEC Publication.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Chang, T., & Wu, T. (2014). Revisiting purchasing power parity in African countries: Panel stationary test with sharp and smooth breaks. Applied Financial Economics, 24(22), 1429–1438. https://doi.org/10.1080/09603107.2014.925068
  • Bakhsh, K., Rose, S., Ali, M. F., Ahmad, N., & Shahbaz, M. (2017). Economic growth, CO2 emissions, renewable waste and FDI relation in Pakistan: New evidences from 3SLS. Journal of Environmental Management, 196, 627–632. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.03.029
  • Bakirtas, I., & Cetin, M. A. (2017). Revisiting the environmental Kuznets curve and pollution haven hypotheses: MIKTA sample. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 24(22), 18273–18283. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-9462-y
  • Balsalobre-Lorente, D., Gokmenoglu, K. K., Taspinar, N., & Cantos-Cantos, J. M. (2019). An approach to the pollution haven and pollution halo hypotheses in MINT countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26(22), 23010–23026. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-05446-x
  • Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239–253. https://about.jstor.org/terms
  • Bulut, U., Ucler, G., & Inglesi-Lotz, R. (2021). Does the pollution haven hypothesis prevail in Turkey? Empirical evidence from nonlinear smooth transition models. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28, 38563. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-13476-7/Published
  • Chadwick, M. G. (2018). Dependence of “Fragile Five” and “Troubled Ten” Emerging Markets’ Financial System to US Monetary Policy and Monetary Policy Uncertainty (17/18).
  • Chandrika, R., Mahesh, R., & Tripathy, N. (2022). Is India a pollution haven? Evidence from cross-border mergers and acquisitions. Journal of Cleaner Production, 376. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.134355
  • Chaudhry, I. S., Yin, W., Syed, &, Ali, A., Faheem, M., Abbas, Q., Farooq, F., & Rahman, S. U. (2022). Moderating role of institutional quality in validation of pollution haven hypothesis in BRICS: a new evidence by using DCCE approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29, 9193–9202. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-16087-4/Published
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Kirlilik Cenneti, Kirlilik Halesi veya Kirlilik Cehennemi? Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Kırılgan Beşli Ülkelerindeki CO2 Emisyonu ve Sıcaklık Artışı Üzerindeki Etkisi

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 32, 134 - 149, 30.05.2025

Emre Özsalman , Ömer Faruk Derindağ , Tayfur Bayat

https://doi.org/10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.1634138

Öz

Amaç: Bu çalışmanın amacı, doğrudan yabancı yatırımın (DYY) Kırılgan Beşli ülkelerindeki çevresel kaliteyi nasıl etkilediğini ve özellikle ekolojik olarak zararlı sektörlerin ev sahibi ülkelere transferini nasıl sağladığını araştırmaktır. Seçilen ülkelerde 1970-2021 yılları arasında DYY girişi, CO2 emisyonları ve sıcaklık artışı arasındaki ilişki özellikle incelenmiştir.
Tasarım/metodoloji: Çalışmada sıcaklık artışı, CO2 emisyonları ve DYY arasındaki nedensel ilişkileri incelemek için Panel Fourier Granger Nedensellik Testi kullanılmıştır. Serilerdeki yapısal kırılmaları etkili bir şekilde tahmin etmek için Bahmani-Oskooee ve ark. (2014) tarafından geliştirilen Keskin ve Yumuşak Kırılmalı Panel Birim Kök Testi uygulanmıştır. Ayrıca, seçilen ülkeler için Kirlilik Sığınağı Hipotezi (KSH) test edilmiştir.
Bulgular: Kırılgan Beşli ülkelerinde, CO2 emisyonları ile sıcaklık artışı ve DYY girişi ile CO2 emisyonları arasında nedensel bir ilişki olduğu bulunmuştur. Bu bulgular, DYY girişlerinin çevresel bozulmayı kötüleştirdiğini ve sıcaklık artışına katkıda bulunduğunu ortaya koyarak KSH’nin bu ülkeler için geçerli olduğunu desteklemektedir.
Özgünlük/değer: Bu çalışma, Kırılgan Beşli ülkelerine yönelik DYY girişlerinin uzun vadeli çevresel etkilerine dair ampirik kanıtlar sunarak literatüre katkıda bulunmaktadır. Ayrıca, seçilen ülkeler için KSH test edilmiş ve DYY'den CO2 emisyonlarına tek yönlü nedensellik, KSH'nin bu ülkeler için geçerli olduğunu ortaya koymuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım CO2 Emisyonu Sıcaklık Artışı Kirlilik Sığınağı

Kaynakça

  • Adebayo, T. S., & Odugbesan, J. A. (2021). Modeling CO 2 emissions in South Africa: empirical evidence from ARDL based bounds and wavelet coherence techniques. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28, 9377–9389. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-11442-3/Published
  • Akbostanci, E., Tunç, G. I., & Türüt-Aşik, S. (2007). Pollution haven hypothesis and the role of dirty industries in Turkey’s exports. Environment and Development Economics, 12(2), 297–322. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1355770X06003512
  • Alper, A. E., Alper, F. O., Cil, A. B., Iscan, E., & Eren, A. A. (2023). Stochastic convergence of ecological footprint: new insights from a unit root test based on smooth transitions and nonlinear adjustment. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(8), 22100–22114. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23763-6
  • An, H., Razzaq, A., Haseeb, M., & W Mihardjo, L. W. (n.d.). The role of technology innovation and people’s connectivity in testing environmental Kuznets curve and pollution heaven hypotheses across the Belt and Road host countries: new evidence from Method of Moments Quantile Regression. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-10775-3/Published
  • Apergis, N., Pinar, M., & Unlu, E. (2023). How do foreign direct investment flows affect carbon emissions in BRICS countries? Revisiting the pollution haven hypothesis using bilateral FDI flows from OECD to BRICS countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(6), 14680–14692. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23185-4
  • Bağlıtaş, H. H., & Yaprak Öztürk, Z. (2019). An Empirical Analysis of Fragile Five In The Context of The Pollution Haven Hypothesis. In S. Coban, S. W. Dalpour, C. Marangoz, & E. Bulut (Eds.), Recent Economic Approaches and Financial Corporate Policy (pp. 71–94). IJOPEC Publication.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Chang, T., & Wu, T. (2014). Revisiting purchasing power parity in African countries: Panel stationary test with sharp and smooth breaks. Applied Financial Economics, 24(22), 1429–1438. https://doi.org/10.1080/09603107.2014.925068
  • Bakhsh, K., Rose, S., Ali, M. F., Ahmad, N., & Shahbaz, M. (2017). Economic growth, CO2 emissions, renewable waste and FDI relation in Pakistan: New evidences from 3SLS. Journal of Environmental Management, 196, 627–632. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.03.029
  • Bakirtas, I., & Cetin, M. A. (2017). Revisiting the environmental Kuznets curve and pollution haven hypotheses: MIKTA sample. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 24(22), 18273–18283. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-9462-y
  • Balsalobre-Lorente, D., Gokmenoglu, K. K., Taspinar, N., & Cantos-Cantos, J. M. (2019). An approach to the pollution haven and pollution halo hypotheses in MINT countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26(22), 23010–23026. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-05446-x
  • Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239–253. https://about.jstor.org/terms
  • Bulut, U., Ucler, G., & Inglesi-Lotz, R. (2021). Does the pollution haven hypothesis prevail in Turkey? Empirical evidence from nonlinear smooth transition models. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28, 38563. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-13476-7/Published
  • Chadwick, M. G. (2018). Dependence of “Fragile Five” and “Troubled Ten” Emerging Markets’ Financial System to US Monetary Policy and Monetary Policy Uncertainty (17/18).
  • Chandrika, R., Mahesh, R., & Tripathy, N. (2022). Is India a pollution haven? Evidence from cross-border mergers and acquisitions. Journal of Cleaner Production, 376. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.134355
  • Chaudhry, I. S., Yin, W., Syed, &, Ali, A., Faheem, M., Abbas, Q., Farooq, F., & Rahman, S. U. (2022). Moderating role of institutional quality in validation of pollution haven hypothesis in BRICS: a new evidence by using DCCE approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29, 9193–9202. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-16087-4/Published
  • Chen, X., & Fang, T. (2024). Temperature anomalies and foreign direct investment: City-level evidence from China. International Review of Financial Analysis, 91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102983
  • Chen, Y., Li, B., Li, Z., & Shi, X. (2014a). Quantitatively evaluating the effects of CO2 emission on temperature rise. Quaternary International, 336, 171–175. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2013.11.031
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  • Haseeb, M., Hassan, S., & Azam, M. (2017). Rural–urban transformation, energy consumption, economic growth, and CO2 emissions using STRIPAT model for BRICS countries. Environmental Progress and Sustainable Energy, 36(2), 523–531. https://doi.org/10.1002/ep.12461
  • Haug, A. A., & Ucal, M. (2019). The role of trade and FDI for CO2 emissions in Turkey: Nonlinear relationships. Energy Economics, 81, 297–307. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.04.006
  • He, J. (2006). Pollution haven hypothesis and environmental impacts of foreign direct investment: The case of industrial emission of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) in Chinese provinces. Ecological Economics, 60, 228–245. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eco
  • Hoffmann, R., Lee, C. G., Ramasamy, B., & Yeung, M. (2005). FDI and pollution: A Granger causality test using panel data. Journal of International Development, 17(3), 311–317. https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.1196
  • IPCC. (2007). The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
  • Islam, M. M., Kamran Khan, M., Tareque, M., Jehan, N., Dagar, V., Muhammad, *, & Khan, K. (2021). Impact of globalization, foreign direct investment, and energy consumption on CO 2 emissions in Bangladesh: Does institutional quality matter? Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28, 48851–48871. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-13441-4/Published
  • Kearsley, A., & Riddel, M. (2010). A further inquiry into the Pollution Haven Hypothesis and the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Ecological Economics, 69(4), 905–919. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.11.014
  • Khan, M. A., & Ozturk, I. (2020). Examining foreign direct investment and environmental pollution linkage in Asia. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(7), 7244–7255. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-07387-x
  • Kivyiro, P., & Arminen, H. (2014). Carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, and foreign direct investment: Causality analysis for Sub-Saharan Africa. Energy, 74(C), 595–606. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.07.025
  • Lee, J. W. (2013). The contribution of foreign direct investment to clean energy use, carbon emissions and economic growth. Energy Policy, 55, 483–489. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.12.039
  • Liang, F. (2008). Does Foreign Direct Investment Harm the Host Country’s Environment? Evidence from China. Current Topics in Management, 105–121.
  • Mabey, N., & McNally, R. (1998). Foreign Direct Investment and the Environment: From Pollution Havens to Sustainable Development: a WWF-UK Report.
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  • Mert, M., & Caglar, A. E. (2020). Testing pollution haven and pollution halo hypotheses for Turkey: a new perspective. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 32933–32943. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-09469-7/Published
  • Murota, Y., & Ito, K. (1996). Global warming and developing countries The possibility of a solution by accelerating development. In Energy Policy (Vol. 24, Issue 12).
  • Pao, H. T., & Tsai, C. M. (2011). Multivariate Granger causality between CO2 emissions, energy consumption, FDI (foreign direct investment) and GDP (gross domestic product): Evidence from a panel of BRIC (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, and China) countries. Energy, 36(1), 685–693. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2010.09.041
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  • Poelhekke, S., & Van der Ploeg, F. (2015). Green havens and pollution havens. World Economy, 38(7), 1159–1178. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12219
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  • Serrano, A. L. M., Rodrigues, G. A. P., Martins, P. H. dos S., Saiki, G. M., Filho, G. P. R., Gonçalves, V. P., & Albuquerque, R. de O. (2024). Statistical Comparison of Time Series Models for Forecasting Brazilian Monthly Energy Demand Using Economic, Industrial, and Climatic Exogenous Variables. Applied Sciences (Switzerland), 14(13). https://doi.org/10.3390/app14135846
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  • Yilanci, V., Ozgur, O., & Gorus, M. S. (2019). The asymmetric effects of foreign direct investment on clean energy consumption in BRICS countries: A recently introduced hidden cointegration test. Journal of Cleaner Production, 237. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.117786
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  • Zhang, C., & Zhou, X. (2016b). Does foreign direct investment lead to lower CO2 emissions? Evidence from a regional analysis in China. In Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (Vol. 58, pp. 943–951). Elsevier Ltd. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.12.226
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Toplam 72 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Uluslararası İşletmecilik
Bölüm ARAŞTIRMA MAKALELERİ
Yazarlar

Emre Özsalman 0000-0003-3620-1122

Ömer Faruk Derindağ 0000-0002-6693-0628

Tayfur Bayat 0000-0002-4427-0999

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Mayıs 2025
Gönderilme Tarihi 5 Şubat 2025
Kabul Tarihi 5 Mayıs 2025
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2025 Cilt: 17 Sayı: 32

Kaynak Göster

APA Özsalman, E., Derindağ, Ö. F., & Bayat, T. (2025). Pollution Haven, Pollution Halo, or Pollution Hell? The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on CO2 Emission and Temperature Rise in Fragile Five Countries. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD), 17(32), 134-149. https://doi.org/10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.1634138
AMA Özsalman E, Derindağ ÖF, Bayat T. Pollution Haven, Pollution Halo, or Pollution Hell? The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on CO2 Emission and Temperature Rise in Fragile Five Countries. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD). Mayıs 2025;17(32):134-149. doi:10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.1634138
Chicago Özsalman, Emre, Ömer Faruk Derindağ, ve Tayfur Bayat. “Pollution Haven, Pollution Halo, or Pollution Hell? The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on CO2 Emission and Temperature Rise in Fragile Five Countries”. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD) 17, sy. 32 (Mayıs 2025): 134-49. https://doi.org/10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.1634138.
EndNote Özsalman E, Derindağ ÖF, Bayat T (01 Mayıs 2025) Pollution Haven, Pollution Halo, or Pollution Hell? The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on CO2 Emission and Temperature Rise in Fragile Five Countries. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD) 17 32 134–149.
IEEE E. Özsalman, Ö. F. Derindağ, ve T. Bayat, “Pollution Haven, Pollution Halo, or Pollution Hell? The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on CO2 Emission and Temperature Rise in Fragile Five Countries”, Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD), c. 17, sy. 32, ss. 134–149, 2025, doi: 10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.1634138.
ISNAD Özsalman, Emre vd. “Pollution Haven, Pollution Halo, or Pollution Hell? The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on CO2 Emission and Temperature Rise in Fragile Five Countries”. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD) 17/32 (Mayıs2025), 134-149. https://doi.org/10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.1634138.
JAMA Özsalman E, Derindağ ÖF, Bayat T. Pollution Haven, Pollution Halo, or Pollution Hell? The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on CO2 Emission and Temperature Rise in Fragile Five Countries. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD). 2025;17:134–149.
MLA Özsalman, Emre vd. “Pollution Haven, Pollution Halo, or Pollution Hell? The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on CO2 Emission and Temperature Rise in Fragile Five Countries”. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD), c. 17, sy. 32, 2025, ss. 134-49, doi:10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.1634138.
Vancouver Özsalman E, Derindağ ÖF, Bayat T. Pollution Haven, Pollution Halo, or Pollution Hell? The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on CO2 Emission and Temperature Rise in Fragile Five Countries. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD). 2025;17(32):134-49.
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