Demografı̇k Geçı̇ş, Tasarruflar ve Büyüme: Çı̇n'ı̇n Yaş Yapısı ve Gelı̇şı̇mı̇

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 33, 544 - 557, 09.12.2025

Meltem Ince Yenilmez , Burak Darıcı

https://doi.org/10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.1723396

Öz

Amaç: Bu çalışma, Çin'in ekonomik büyümesi, tasarruf davranışı ve demografik değişimler arasındaki karmaşık bağlantıları incelemektedir. Çin, uzun vadeli ekonomik kalkınma üzerinde muazzam bir etkiye sahip olacak büyük bir demografik değişimden geçmektedir. Bu değişim, yaşlanan bir nüfus, küçülen bir çalışma yaşı grubu ve yüksek bir bağımlılık oranı ile karakterize edilmektedir. Solow büyüme modeli ve yaşam döngüsü teorisi de dahil olmak üzere geleneksel ekonomik kalkınma modelleri, nüfus yapısındaki değişikliklerin yatırım ve tasarruf seviyeleri üzerinde etkisi olduğunu ve bunların da kişi başına düşen GSYİH üzerinde etkisi olduğunu iddia etmektedir.
Tasarım/Yöntem: Bu çalışma, Dünya Bankası'nın 2013-2023 yılları arasındaki verileriyle hem kısa hem de uzun dönem katsayılarını test etmek için Vektör Hata Düzeltme (VEC) modelleriyle birlikte Johansen-Juselius eşbütünleşme testini kullanmaktadır.
Bulgular: Analiz, kişi başına düşen GSYİH ile tasarruf oranı arasında pozitif ve anlamlı bir uzun dönem ilişkisi olduğunu ve tasarruf oranındaki her yüzde birlik artış için ekonomik üretimin %0,812 oranında arttığını ortaya koymaktadır.

Özgünlük/Değer: Çin'deki demografik değişimlerden kaynaklanan ekonomik sorunların türüne ilişkin önemli bilgiler sağlamakta ve yaşlanan nüfus nedeniyle zor durumda olan ekonominin sürdürülmesinde tasarrufların önemini vurgulamaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler

Çin , Tasarruf Oranı , Demografik Değişimler , Ekonomik Sürdürülebilirlik

Demographic Transition, Savings, And Growth: China's Age Structure and Development

Öz

Purpose: This study looks into the intricate connections between China's economic expansion, savings behaviour, and demographic shifts. China is going through a major demographic shift that will have a tremendous impact on long-term economic development. This shift is characterised by an ageing population, a shrinking working-age group, and a high dependency ratio. Conventional economic development models, including the Solow growth model and the life-cycle theory, contend that variations in population structure have an impact on investment and saving levels, which then have an impact on GDP per capita.
Design/Methodology: The paper employs the Johansen-Juselius cointegration test coupled with Vector Error Correction (VEC) models to test both short-run and long-run coefficients with data from the World Bank from 2013 to 2023.
Findings: The analysis reveals a positive and significant long-run relationship between GDP per capita and savings rate, and economic production increases by 0.812% for every one percent increase in savings rate.

Originality/Value: These facts provide important insights into the type of economic problems arising from the demographic shifts in China and highlight the importance of savings in sustaining its stricken economy due to the ageing population.

Anahtar Kelimeler

China , Savings Rate , Demographic Shifts , Economic Sustainability

Kaynakça

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