Estimation of the Number of Occupational Accidents and Deadly Occupational Accidents Encountered in Manufacturing Sector of Fabrication Metal Products, Except Machinery and Equipment Sector in Turkey

Öz

Manufacture of Fabricated Metal Products except Machinery and Equipment is the sector in which the occupational accidents  are  most experienced, in Turkey. In this study, the number of occupational accidents in the manufacturing sector of Fabricated Metal Products excluding Machinery and Equipment are examined from the Social Security Institution’s data. It is aimed to estimate the numbers of occupational accidents and fatal occupational accidents belonging to the year 2016 which have not yet been announced by using data belonging to the years 2008-2015 in the Manufacture of Fabricated Metal Products except Machinery and Equipment sector. Fuzzy Time Series and Least Squares methods are used as estimation methods. As a result of the forecast, it will be revealed which method is healthier with the accident data which will be announced about the year 2016.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Fabricated Metal,Occupational Accident,Estimation,Fuzzy Time Series

Türkiye’de Makine ve Teçhizatı Hariç Fabrikasyon Metal Ürünleri İmalatı Sektöründe Yaşanan İş Kazaları ve Ölümlü İş Kazası Sayılarının Tahmini

Öz

Makine ve Teçhizatı Hariç Fabrikasyon Metal Ürünleri İmalatı en çok iş kazasının yaşandığı sektördür. Bu çalışmada Sosyal Güvenlik Kurumu’ndan alınan verilerle ülkemizde Makine ve Teçhizatı Hariç Fabrikasyon Metal Ürünleri İmalatı sektöründe yaşanan iş kazası sayıları incelenmiştir. Makine ve Teçhizatı Hariç Fabrikasyon Metal Ürünleri İmalatı sektöründe 2008-2015 yıllarına ait veriler kullanılarak henüz verileri açıklanmamış olan 2016 yılına ait iş kazası ve ölümlü iş kazası sayılarının tahmin edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Tahmin yöntemi olarak Uyarlanabilir Bulanık Zaman Serisi ve En Küçük Kareler yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Yapılan tahmin neticesinde 2016 yılına dair açıklanacak kaza verileriyle hangi yöntemin daha sağlıklı tahminde bulunduğu ortaya çıkacaktır. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Fabrikasyon Metal,İş Kazası,Tahmin,Bulanık Zaman Serileri

Kaynakça

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