2025 ABD Ulusal Güvenlik Stratejisi: Düzen Arayışı mı Düzensizlik mi?

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 1 , 109 - 133 , 28.03.2026

Uğur Arslan

https://doi.org/10.53306/klujfeas.1845096

https://izlik.org/JA42DB54HN

Öz

Bu makale, 2025 tarihli ABD Ulusal Güvenlik Stratejisi’nin transatlantik güvenlik mimarisi üzerindeki etkilerini neo-klasik realizm perspektifinden incelemektedir. Çalışma, söz konusu belgenin önceki Amerikan strateji belgelerinden ayrışarak Çin, Rusya ve Kuzey Kore gibi aktörleri sistemik rakipler olarak merkeze almak yerine, Avrupa Birliğine yönelik eleştirel, mesafeli ve normatif açıdan sorgulayıcı bir yaklaşımı öncelediğini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu yönüyle 2025 NSS, transatlantik düzenin ortak tehdit algısı ve kolektif güvenlik anlayışı üzerine inşa edilmiş geleneksel varsayımlarını zayıflatan bir stratejik çerçeve sunmaktadır. Çalışma, ABD’nin hegemonik kapasitesinin uluslararası sistemin yapısal koşullarından bağımsız biçimde ele alınamayacağını; iç politik dinamikler, liderlik algıları, ideolojik öncelikler ve seçmen temelli beklentiler üzerinden süzülerek dış politikaya yansıdığını göstermektedir. Bu bağlamda, Batı Yarımküre’nin güvenliğine öncelik verilmesi Monroe Doktrini’nin çağdaş bir yorumu olarak okunabilecek bir bölgesel daralma eğilimine işaret ederken, Avrupa’nın güvenliğinin daha koşullu ve ikincil bir sorumluluk alanı olarak tanımlandığı görülmektedir. Analiz bulguları, 2025 NSS’nin ABD’nin küresel angajman anlayışında normatif ve kurumsal bir daralmaya yol açtığını ve Avrupa güvenlik mimarisinde artan bir stratejik uyumsuzluk ve parçalanma riskini beslediğini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu eğilim, transatlantik ittifakın askerî kapasitesinin ötesinde siyasi ve değer temelli bütünlüğünü de aşındıran bir yapısal kırılganlık üretmekte ve transatlantik düzenin geleceğine ilişkin belirsizlikleri derinleştirmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

ABD Ulusal Güvenlik Stratejisi , Neo-klasik Realizm , Transatlantik İttifak , Avrupa Stratejik Özerkliği , Hegemonik Kırılganlık , Uluslararası Güvenlik Mimarisi

The 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy: A Search for Order or Disorder?

https://izlik.org/JA42DB54HN

Öz

This article examines the implications of the 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy for the transatlantic security architecture from a neoclassical realist perspective. It demonstrates that, diverging from earlier American strategic documents, the 2025 NSS prioritizes a critical, distancing, and normatively interrogative approach toward the European Union, rather than centering actors such as China, Russia, and North Korea as systemic rivals. In this respect, the 2025 NSS presents a strategic framework that weakens the traditional assumptions underpinning the transatlantic order, particularly those based on shared threat perceptions and collective security. The study argues that U.S. hegemonic capacity cannot be analyzed independently of the structural conditions of the international system, as it is filtered through domestic political dynamics, leadership perceptions, ideological priorities, and voter-driven expectations before being translated into foreign policy outcomes. Within this context, the prioritization of security in the Western Hemisphere signals a regional contraction that may be read as a contemporary reinterpretation of the Monroe Doctrine, while Europe’s security is increasingly framed as a conditional and secondary responsibility. The findings indicate that the 2025 NSS generates a normative and institutional narrowing in the United States’ understanding of global engagement and fuels growing strategic misalignment and fragmentation within Europe’s security architecture. This trend produces structural vulnerability that erodes not only the military capacity but also the political and value-based cohesion of the transatlantic alliance, thereby deepening uncertainties surrounding the future of the transatlantic order.

Anahtar Kelimeler

U.S. National Security Strategy , Neoclassical Realism , Transatlantic Alliance , European Strategic Autonomy , Hegemonic Vulnerability , International Security Architecture

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