Impact Of The COVID-19 Outbreak On World Trade in Goods And Services: A Structural Break Analysis

Öz

COVID-19 pandemic has started in Wuhan, China in November 2019. To prevent the spread of the pandemic, curfews, etc. measures have been implemented in many countries. Due to the measures implemented, economic activities around the world have come to a standstill. The pandemic also harmed the goods and services trade. The study analyzes how the World goods and services trade affected by the pandemic and to contribute to the literature. As a result, it was determined that there was a break in World Trade and travel variables in 2020:03, government services 2020:04, total services 2020:05, transportation 2020:02, goods-related services 2019:12 and other commercial services 2020:06. Structural change analyses showed that goods trade soon returned to its pre-pandemic level; but it was observed that the recovery in services was slow.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• COVID-19
• international economics
• international trade
• structural break

COVID-19 Salgının Dünya Mal ve Hizmet Ticareti Üzerindeki Etkisi: Yapısal Bir Kırılma Analizi

Öz

2019 yılı Kasım ayında Çin'in Wuhan kentinde COVID-19 pandemisi başlamıştır. Salgının yayılmasını önlemek için birçok ülke sokağa çıkma yasakları vb. tedbirler uygulamaya koymuştur. Uygulanan tedbirler nedeniyle dünya genelinde ekonomik faaliyetler durma noktasına gelmiştir. Salgın mal ve hizmet ticaretine de zarar vermiştir. Çalışma, dünya mal ve hizmet ticaretinin salgından nasıl etkilendiğini analiz etmekte ve literatüre katkıda bulunmaktadır. Sonuç olarak, Dünya ticaret ve seyahat değişkenlerinde 2020:03, devlet hizmetlerinde 2020:04, toplam hizmetlerde 2020:05, ulaşımda 2020:02, mal bağlantılı hizmetlerde 2019:12 ve diğer ticari hizmetlerde 2020:06 dönemlerinde kırılma olduğu belirlenmiştir. Yapısal değişim analizleri, mal ticaretinin kısa sürede pandemi öncesi düzeyine döndüğünü göstermiş, ancak hizmetlerde toparlanmanın daha yavaş olduğu gözlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• COVID-19
• uluslararası iktisat
• uluslararası ticaret
• yapısal kırılma

Kaynakça

1. Akçaci, T., & Çinaroğlu, M. S. (2020). Yeni Koronavirüs (COVID-19) Salgınının Lojistik ve Ticarete Etkisi. Gaziantep Unıversıty Journal Of Socıal Scıences, 447–456. http://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/jss
2. Anirudh. (2016). Endogenously Detecting Structural Breaks in a Time Series: Implementation in R | R-bloggers. https://www.r-bloggers.com/2016/11/endogenously-detecting-structural-breaks-in-a-time-series-implementation-in-r/
3. Ateş, E. (2021). Covid-19 Salgınının Türkiye’nin Dış Ticaretine Etkisi: Bir Yapısal Kırılma Analizi. İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 36(3), 617–627. https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.202136308
4. Bai, J., & Perron, P. (1998). Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes. Econometrica, 66(1), 47. https://doi.org/10.2307/2998540
5. Bai, J., & Perron, P. (2003). Critical values for multiple structural change tests. The Econometrics Journal, 6(1), 72–78. https://doi.org/10.1111/1368-423x.00102
6. Baldwin, R., & Mauro, B. W. di. (2020). Economics in the Time of COVID-19. In Economics in the Time of COVID-19 (Issue May). www.cepr.org
7. Barlow, P., van Schalkwyk, M. C., McKee, M., Labonté, R., & Stuckler, D. (2021). COVID-19 and the collapse of global trade: building an effective public health response. The Lancet Planetary Health, 5(2), e102–e107. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30291-6
8. Barua, S. (2020a). COVID-19 Pandemic and World Trade: Some Analytical Notes. SSRN Electronic Journal, April, 1–35. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3577627

9. Barua, S. (2020b). COVID-19 Pandemic and World Trade: Some Analytical Notes. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3577627
10. Bekkers, E., & Koopman, R. B. (2020). Simulating the trade effects of the COVID-19 pandemic: Scenario analysis based on quantitative trade modelling. World Economy, 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13063
11. Benz, S., Gonzales, F., & Mourougane, A. (2020). The Impact of COVID-19 international travel restrictions on services-trade costs (Issue 237). https://doi.org/10.1787/e443fc6b-en
12. Carreño, I., Dolle, T., Medina, L., & Brandenburger, M. (2020). The implications of the Covid-19 pandemic on trade. European Journal of Risk Regulation, 11(2), 402–410. https://doi.org/10.1017/err.2020.48
13. Demir, B., & Javorcik, B. (2020). Trade finance matters: Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 36(June), S397–S408. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/graa034
14. Eksi, O. (2009). Structural Break Estimation: A Survey. www.econ.upf.edu/~oeksi/
15. Emirmahmutoğlu, F., Saraçoğlu, B., & Güney, S. (2010). Türkiye’de Enflasyon Direngenliğinin Baı-Perron Yöntemi İle İncelenmesi. Gazi University Journal of Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 12(2), 1–26.
16. Espitia, A., Mattoo, A., Rocha, N., Ruta, M., & Winkler, D. (2021). Pandemic trade: COVID-19, remote work and global value chains. World Economy, 1–29. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13117
17. Espitia, A., Rocha, N., & Ruta, M. (2020). Trade in Critical COVID-19 Products. In WTO Publications (Issue March). https://doi.org/10.1596/33514
18. Federation of German Industries (BDI). (2020). Export Controls and Export Bans over the Course of the Covid-19 Pandemic. In 2020-04-29 (Issue April). www.bdi.eu
19. Fernandes, N. (2020). Economic effects of coronavirus outbreak ( COVID-19 ) on the world economy Nuno Fernandes Full Professor of Finance IESE Business School Spain. SSRN Electronic Journal, ISSN 1556-5068, Elsevier BV, 0–29.
20. Gruszczynski, L. (2020). The CoviD-19 pandemic and international trade: Temporary turbulence or paradigm shift? European Journal of Risk Regulation, 11(2), 337–342. https://doi.org/10.1017/err.2020.29
21. Hayakawa, K., & Mukunoki, H. (2020). Impacts of covid-19 on international trade : evidence from the first quarter of 2020 (No. 791; IDE DISCUSSION PAPER, Vol. 791, Issue 265). http://hdl.handle.net/2344/00051734
22. Hayakawa, K., & Mukunoki, H. (2021). The impact of COVID-19 on international trade: Evidence from the first shock. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 60(March), 101–135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2021.101135
23. Kimball, A. M. (2006). Risky Trade: Infectious Disease in the Era of Global Trade. In Ashgate (Vol. 1, Issue 1). Ashgate.
24. Kumari, M., & Bharti, N. (2021). Linkages Between Trade Facilitation and Governance: Relevance for Post-COVID-19 Trade Strategy. Millennial Asia, 097639962097234. https://doi.org/10.1177/0976399620972346
25. Lianghe, C. (2020). RPubs - The Chow Test for Structural Breaks. https://rpubs.com/chenlianghe/607944
26. Maliszewska, M., & Mattoo, A. (2020). The Potential Impact of COVID-19 on GDP and Trade. In Policy Research Working Paper (Issue 9211). http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/295991586526445673/pdf/The-Potential-Impact-of-COVID-19-on-GDP-and-Trade-A-Preliminary-Assessment.pdf
27. Minondo, A. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 on the trade of goods and services in Spain. Applied Economic Analysis, 29(85), 58–76. https://doi.org/10.1108/AEA-11-2020-0156
28. Ozili, P. K., & Arun, T. (2020). Munich Personal RePEc Archive Spillover of COVID-19: Impact on the Global Economy Spillover of COVID-19: impact on the Global Economy. In papers.ssrn.com. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3562570
29. Simola, H. (2021). The impact of Covid-19 on global value chains. www.bofit.fi/en
30. Susskind, D., & Vines, D. (2020). The economics of the COVID-19 pandemic: An assessment. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 36, S1–S13. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/graa036
31. Verschuur, J., Koks, E. E., & Hall, J. W. (2021). Observed impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on global trade. In Nature Human Behaviour (Vol. 5, Issue 3, pp. 305–307). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01060-5
32. Vidya, C. T., & Prabheesh, K. P. (2020). Implications of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Trade Networks. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 56(10), 2408–2421. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2020.1785426
33. Vo, T. D., & Tran, M. D. (2021). The Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on the Global Trade. International Journal of Social Science and Economics Invention, 7(01), 1–7. https://doi.org/10.23958/ijssei/vol07-i01/261
34. WTO. (n.d.). Technical Notes. Retrieved August 19, 2021, from https://data.wto.org/assets/UserGuide/TechnicalNotes_en.pdf