BREXİT VE BİRLEŞİK KRALLIK KAMU MALİYESİ

Öz

Brexit, Birleşik Krallık ve AB ülkeleri kamu maliyesinde önemli değişikliklere sebep olmuştur. İlk bakışta Brexit’le beraber AB bütçesine yapılan katkıların azalmasının Birleşik Krallık kamu maliyesini güçlendirmesi beklenmiştir. Ancak tasarruf edilecek miktarın nasıl kullanıldığı kamu maliyesinin görünümünü değiştirecektir. Ayrıca kamu maliyesi büyük ölçüde genel ekonominin gücüne bağlı olduğu için ekonominin Brexit sonrasındaki görünümü kamu maliyesinde farklı etkilerin ortaya çıkmasına sebep olacaktır. Bu kapsamda çalışmanın amacı, Brexit’in Birleşik Krallık kamu maliyesi açısından ortaya çıkan ve çıkması muhtemel sonuçlarını ele almaktır. Sonuçlar değerlendirilirken Birleşik Krallık’ta faaliyet gösteren Bütçe Sorumluluğu Ofisi’nin verileri 2010-2023 (gerçekleşen) ile 2024-2029 (öngörülen) yılları itibariyle karşılaştırmalı olarak incelenmiştir. Aynı zamanda Brexit’in sebeplerinden biri olarak görülen göçün bu süreçte nasıl değiştiği ve kamu maliyesi üzerindeki etkileri Birleşmiş Milletler Mülteciler Yüksek Komiserliğinden elde edilen 1999-2023 yılları arasındaki verilere dayalı olarak yorumlanmaktadır. Çalışma sonucunda Brexit’in daha yüksek bütçe açığı, daha yüksek borçlanma, artan vergiler ve kısılan kamu harcamalarının ortaya çıkmasında rol oynadığı düşünülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Birleşik Krallık
• Avrupa Birliği
• Brexit
• Birleşik Krallık Kamu Maliyesi.

BREXIT AND PUBLIC FINANCE OF THE UNITED KINGDOM

Öz

The United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union has caused significant changes in the public finances of both the United Kingdom and the EU countries. At first glance, it was expected that the reduction in contributions to the European Union budget with Brexit would strengthen the public finances of the United Kingdom. However, how the amount to be saved is used will change the appearance of the public finances. In addition, since public finances largely depend on the strength of the general economy, whether the economy is stronger or weaker after Brexit will cause different effects on the public finances. In this context, the aim of the study is to address the current and potential consequences of Brexit for the public finances of the United Kingdom. In evaluating the results, the data of the Office for Budget Responsibility operating in the United Kingdom were examined comparatively for the years 2010-2023 (actual) and 2024-2026 (projected). At the same time, how migration, which is seen as one of the main reasons for Brexit, has changed in this process and its effects on public finances are interpreted based on data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees between 1999-2023. As a result of the study, it is thought that Brexit plays a role in the emergence of higher budget deficits, higher borrowing, increased taxes and reduced public expenditures.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• The United Kingdom
• The European Union
• Brexit
• Public Finance of The United Kingdom.

Kaynakça

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