The Impact of Digitalisation on Employment: A Study on Occupations Classified by Skill Levels in Turkey

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 43, 1031 - 1050, 30.12.2022

Yasemin Arı Kovancı Faruk Sapancalı

Öz

Technological change has always been a significant determiner of economic growth and development. Nevertheless, it also means a serious challenge in terms of labour market. Indeed, serious transformations have been encountered in labour markets in parallel to technological change in historical period. Today, this change and transformation process is cited and discussed with the concept of digitalisation. In this study, the effects of digitalisation process on labour market have been analyzed especially in the context of sectoral employment, skills and occupations in the sample of Turkey. In the study, the effects of digitalisation on total employment and occupations classified by skills in industrial and service sectors in Turkey have been investigated with panel data analysis method, using the data of 2010-2019 period. Within the context of sectors dealt with in the cited period, it has been found that digitalisation has positive impact on employment growth in general. Nevertheless, it has been concluded that digitalisation’s effect on employment in occupations with low, medium and high level of skills differs. In parallel to the increase in the tendency for digitalisation in the firms functioning in the mentioned sectors, employment growth has been seen to be in question in occupations requiring higher levels of skills.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Digitalisation, Turkey, Employment, Occupation, Skills, Panel Data Analysis

Dijitalleşmenin İstihdam Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye’de Beceri Düzeyine Göre Sınıflandırılmış Meslek Grupları Üzerine Bir Araştırma

Öz

Teknolojik değişim her zaman ekonomik büyüme ve gelişmenin önemli bir belirleyicisi olmuştur. Bununla birlikte, işgücü piyasaları açısından da ciddi bir meydan okuma anlamına gelmektedir. Gerçekten, tarihsel süreçte teknolojik değişime koşut olarak işgücü piyasalarında ciddi dönüşümler yaşanmıştır. Günümüzde de bu değişim ve dönüşüm süreci dijitalleşme kavramı ile birlikte anılmakta ve tartışılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, dijitalleşme sürecinin işgücü piyasasına etkisi Türkiye örneğinde özellikle sektörel istihdam ile vasıf ve meslekler bağlamında incelenmiştir. Çalışmada dijitalleşmenin Türkiye’de sanayi ve hizmet sektörleri bağlamında toplam istihdam ve vasıf düzeyine göre sınıflandırılmış meslek grupları üzerine etkileri, 2010-2019 dönemi verileri kullanılarak panel veri analizi yöntemiyle araştırılmıştır. Söz konusu dönemde ele alınan sektörler bağlamında dijitalleşmenin genel olarak istihdam artışına pozitif yönde etkisinin olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Bununla birlikte, dijitalleşmenin yüksek, orta ve düşük vasıf düzeyine sahip mesleklerde istihdam üzerindeki etkisinin farklılık gösterdiği sonucu elde edilmiştir. Ele alınan sektörlerde faaliyet gösteren firmalarda dijitalleşmeye yönelik eğilimin artmasına koşut olarak daha yüksek vasıf gerektiren mesleklerde istihdam artışının söz konusu olduğu görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Dijitalleşme, Türkiye, İstihdam, Meslek, Beceri, Panel Veri Analizi.

Kaynakça

• Aly, H. (2020). Digital Transformation, Development and Productivity in Developing Countries: Is Artificial İntelligence a Curse or a Blessing?. Review of Economics and Political Science. https://doi.org/10.1108/REPS-11-2019-0145, (18.09.2021).
• Anderton, R., Jarvis, V., Labhard, V., Morgan, J., Petroulakis, F. and Vivian, L. (2020). Virtually everywhere? Digitalisation and the Euro Area and EU Economies. ECB Occasional Paper No. 244. Frankfurt: ECB.
• Andrews, D., Nicoletti, G. and Timiliotis (2018). Digital Technology Diffusion: A Matter Of Capabilities, Incentives Or Both?. Working Paper No. 24. Paris: OECD Publishing.
• Arntz, M., Gregory, T. and Zierahn, U. (2017). Technology and the Future of Work Aggregate Employment Effects of Digitization, https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Technology-and-the-Future-of-Work-Aggregate-Effects-Arntz- Gregory/802390c7edf1b07df177d9b33d454bb3e7919bd5, (23.05.2022).
• Atasoy, H. (2013). The Effects of Broadband Internet Expansion on Labor Market Outcomes. ILR Review, 66(2), 315-345.
• Avom, D., Dadegnon, A. K. and Igue, C. B. (2021). Does Digitalization Promote Net Job Creation? Empirical Evidence from WAEMU Countries. Telecommunications Policy, 45(8), 1-17.
• Aydın, A. (2021). Robotların İstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisi: Seçilmiş Ülkeler Üzerine Ampirik İnceleme. Çalışma ve Toplum Dergisi, 1, 269-288.
• Balliester, T. and Elsheikhi, A. (2018). The Future of Work: A Literature Review. Working Paper No. 29. Geneva: International Labour Office.
• Balsmeier, B. and Woerter, M. (2019). Is This Time Different? How Digitalization Influences Job Creation and Destruction. Research Policy, 48(8), 1-10.
• Baltagi, B.H. (2021). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. 6. Basım, Switzerland: Springer Nature Switzerland AG.
• Banga, K. and Willem te Velde, D. (2018). Digitalisation and the Future of Manufacturing in Africa. London: SET.
• Beck, N. and Katz, J.N. (1995). What to do (and not to do) with Time-Series Cross-Section Data. American Political Science Review, 89(3), 634-647.
• Bellakhal, R. and Mouelhi, R.B.A. (2020). Digitalisation and Firm Performance: Evidence from Tunisian SMEs. Working Paper No.36. https://euneighbours.eu/sites/default/files/publications/2020-07/emnes_wp_036_digitalisation_firm_performance_tunisian_smes.pdf , (25.11.2021).
• Breusch, T. S. and Pagan, A.R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
• Brown, M. B. and Forsythe, A.B. (1974). Robust Tests for the Equality of Variances. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 69(346), 364-367.
• Camara, N. and Tuesta, D. (2017). DiGiX: The Digitization Index. Working Paper 17/03. Madrid: BBVA Research.
• Castro Vergara, R. I. and Marquina Feldman, P. S. (2018). Impact of Broadband Uses on Labour Demand derived from the Innovative Behaviour of Firms in Creative Industries. Creative Industries Journal, 11(3), 278-305.
• Chiacchio, F., Petropoulos, G. and Pichler, D. (2018). The Impact of Industrial Robots on EU Employment and Wages: A Local Labour Market Approach. Working Paper No. 2018/02. Brussels: Bruegel.
• Chobanova, R. and Kocarev, L. (2019). Digitalisation as a Challenge for Enterprises in 21st Century. Economic Studies, 28(1), 153-173.
• Colecchia, A. and Papaconstantinou, G. (1996). The Evolution of Skills in OECD Countries and the Role of Technology. Working Papers 1996/08. Paris: OECD Publishing.
• Degryse, C. (2016). Digitalisation of the Economy and its Impact on Labour Markets. Working Paper No. 2016.02. Brussels: ETUI.
• EC. (2020). Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI) 2020: Thematic Chapters. European Commission, Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.
• EC. (2021). Digital Economy and Society Index 2021. European Commission, Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.
• Eder, A., Koller, W. and Mahlberg, B. (2022). Economy 4.0: Employment Effects by Occupation, Industry, and Gender. Empirica, 1-26, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-022-09543-y, (11.04.2022).
• Evangelista, R., Guerrieri, P. and Meliciani, V. (2014). The Economic Impact of Digital Technologies in Europe. Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 23(8), 802-824.
• Frey, C. B. and Osborne, M. A. (2013). The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation?. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114, 254-280.
• Güriş, S., Çağlayan Akay, E. and Güriş, B. (2017). EViews ile Temel Ekonometri. 3. Basım, İstanbul: Der Yayınları.
• Hausman, J. A. (1978). Specification Tests in Econometrics. Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271.
• Hertveldt, B. and Michel, B. (2013). Offshoring and the Skill Structure of Labour Demand in Belgium. De Economist, 161(4), 399-420.
• Hirsch-Kreinsen, H. (2016). Digitization of Industrial Work: Development Paths and Prospects. Journal for Labour Market Research, 49(1), 1-14.
• Hongmei, M., Qian, G., Xiuzhen, L. and Yun, Z. (2022). AI Development and Employment Skill Structure: A Case Study of China. Economic Analysis and Policy, 73, 242-254.
• Houngbonon, G.V. and Liang, J. (2018). The Impact of Broadband Internet on Employment in France. https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/184945/1/Houngbonon-Liang.pdf, (15.09.2021).
• Hurlin, C. and Mignon, V. (2007). Second Generation Panel Unit Root Tests. https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00159842, (14.11.2021).
• ILO. (2012). International Standard Classification of Occupations: Structure, Group Definitions and Correspondence Tables. Geneva: International Labour Office.
• ILO. (2016). Key Indicators of the Labour Market: Ninth Edition. Geneva: International Labour Office.
• Jarque, C.M. and Bera, A.K. (1987). A Test for Normality of Observations and Regression Residuals. International Statistical Review, 55(2), 163-172.
• Katz, R., Koutroumpis, P. and Martin Callorda, F. (2013). Using a Digitization Index to Measure the Economic and Social Impact of Digital Agendas. Info, 16(1), 32-44.
• Lanyi, B., Hornyak, M. and Kruzslicz, F. (2021). The Effect of Online Activity on SMEs’ Competitiveness. Competitiveness Review: An International Business Journal, 31(3), 477-496.
• Lepore, D., Micozzi, A. and Spigarelli, F. (2021). Industry 4.0 Accelerating Sustainable Manufacturing in the COVID-19 Era: Assessing the Readiness and Responsiveness of Italian Regions. Sustainability, 13(5), 1-19.
• Marin, G. and Vona, F. (2019). Climate Policies and Skill-Biased Employment Dynamics: Evidence from EU Countries. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 98, 1-19.
• Meschi, E., Taymaz, E. and Vivarelli, M. (2015). Globalization, Technological Change and Labor Demand: A Firm Level Analysis for Turkey. IZA Discussion Paper No. 9453. Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor.
• Milosevic, N., Dobrota, M. and Barjaktarovic Rakocevic, S. (2018). Digital Economy in Europe: Evaluation of Countries’ Performances. Zbornik Radova Ekonomskog Fakulteta U Rijeci: Casopis Za Ekonomsku Teoriju I Praksu, 36(2), 861-880.
• Myovella, G., Karacuka, M. and Haucap, J. (2020). Digitalization and Economic Growth: A Comparative Analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa and OECD Economies. Telecommunications Policy, 44(2), 1-12.
• Nicoletti, G., von Rueden, C. and Andrews, D. (2020). Digital Technology Diffusion: A Matter of Capabilities, Incentives or both?. European Economic Review, 128, 1-58.
• Nübler, I. (2016). New Technologies: A Jobless Future or Golden Age of Job Creation?. Working Paper. No. 13. Geneva: International Labour Office.
• OECD. (2014). Measuring the Digital Economy: A New Perspective. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris: OECD Publishing.
• OECD. (2019a). OECD Employment Outlook 2019: The Future of Work. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris: OECD Publishing.
• OECD. (2019b). Measuring the Digital Transformation: A Roadmap for the Future. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris: OECD Publishing.
• Pesaran, M.H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. IZA Discussion Paper No. 1240. Bonn: IZA Institute of Labor Economics.
• Poliquin, C.W. (2020). The Wage and Inequality Impacts of Broadband Internet. https://poliquin.xyz/files/poliquin_jmp.pdf , (14.11.2020).
• Sekmokas, M., Borunsky, L., Horgan, M., Ravet, J. and Nurminen, M. (2020). Workforce Skills and Innovation Diffusion: Trends and Policy Implications. Working Paper No. 2020/01. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.
• Taymaz, E. (2018). Dijital Teknolojiler ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Dijital Teknoloji Sektörlerinde Türkiye’nin Konumu, Fırsatları, Seçenekleri. İstanbul: TÜSİAD.
• The World Bank. (2016). World Development Report 2016: Digital Dividends. Washington DC: World Bank Group.
• Tolkachev, S. A., Bykov, A. A., Morkovkin, D. E., Borisov, O. I. and Gavrilin, A. V. (2020). Digitalization of Manufacturing in Russia, Belarus and the European Union. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 421(3), 1-7.
• Turgut, E. and Uçan, O. (2019). Yolsuzluğun Vergi Oranları ile Olan İlişkisinin OECD Ülkeleri Örnekleminde İncelenmesi. Niğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 1(3), 1-17.
• Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT). (2020). Survey on Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Usage in Enterprises, 2020, TURKSTAT Press Release, No: 33677. http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreHaberBultenleri.do?id=33677, (10.09.2020).
• Vandeplas, A. and Thum-Thysen, A. (2019). Skills Mismatch & Productivity in the EU. Discussion Paper No. 100. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.
• Wijayanti, F. and Turgel, I. D. (2021). The Consequences of Digitalization of the Labor Market in Developing Countries: Case Study in Indonesia, https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.210213.014, (23.05.2022).
• Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2020). Panel Veri Ekonometrisi Stata Uygulamalı. Genişletilmiş 5. Baskı, İstanbul: Beta Yayıncılık.
• Yıldırım, K., Mercan, M. and Kostakoğlu, S. F. (2013). Satın Alma Gücü Paritesinin Geçerliliğinin Test Edilmesi: Zaman Serisi ve Panel Veri Analizi. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(3), 75-95.
• Yıldız, B. and Demireli, E. (2019). Nakit Yönetimini Etkileyen Değişkenler Üzerine BİST Perakende Sektöründe Panel Veri Analizi. Hitit Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 12(2), 416-429.
• Yüksel, C. (2020). Tiebout Hipotezi Çerçevesinde Yerel Mali Değişkenlerin Mekansal Tercihe Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Turkish Studies-Economics, Finance, Politics, 15(1), 629-643.
• Zolfaghari, M., Kabiri, M. and Saadatmanesh, H. (2020). Impact of Socio-Economic Infrastructure Investments on Income Inequality in Iran. Journal of Policy Modeling, 42(5), 1146-1168.