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Emek Piyasasında Geçici ve Kalıcı Şokların Analizi Ve İşsizlik Oranlarının Genişleme ve Daralma Rejimlerine Göre Asimetrik Tepkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2017, Sayı: 34, 217 - 242, 31.12.2017

Öz

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de işgücü piyasalarındaki şokların özellikleri araştırılarak işsizlik oranlarının büyüme ve daralma rejimlerine göre gösterdiği tepkiler analiz edilecektir. Bu anlamda işsizlik oranlarında meydana gelen trend eğilimden sapmalar ve arkasında yatan temel sebeplerin neler olduğu konusu, politika yapıcılar açısından son derece önemli bir konu haline gelmekle birlikte istikrar ve büyümenin eş anlı olarak sağlanması noktasında kendilerine esneklik tanıyacaktır. Özelikle iktisadi birimlerin bilgiye kolaylıkla erişimi ve beklentileri anında uyarlamaları, bahsedilen değişkenin daralma ve genişleme rejimlerine göre farklı tepkimelerde bulunmasına neden olacaktır. Dolayısıyla bu ilişkileri dikkate almayan çalışmalardan elde edilen bulgulara dayalı yapılan politika çıkarsamalarında hatalar olacaktır. Bu eksiklik çalışmada dikkate alınmış olup işsizlik oranlarının rejimlere gösterdiği tepkiler; tarih, süre ve şiddet açısından BBQ, MBBQ, TR, eğiklik ve basıklık kriterleri kullanılarak tespit edilecektir. Testlerden elde edilen sonuçlara dayalı olarak işsizlik olgusunun asimetrik hareketi, istihdam yaratmayan büyüme, işsizlik histerisi ve doğal oran gibi teorik yapıların var olup olmadığı ortaya konulacaktır.

Kaynakça

  • Abasız, Tezcan (2013): “İş Çevrimlerinde Asimetrik İlişkilerin Araştırılması Ve Türkiye’de Devresel Hareketler İçin Öncü Gösterge Endeksinin Oluşturulması”, Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü İktisat Anabilim Dalı, Doktora Tezi, s. 43-51.
  • Agénor, Pierre-Richard (2002): “Business Cycles, Economic Crises, and the Poor”, The Journal of Policy Reform 5.3, s. 147.
  • Apap, Wayne, and Daniel Gravino. "A sectoral approach to Okun’s Law" Applied Economics Letters 24.5 (2017): 319-324.
  • Ball, L., Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D., Akerlof, G. A., Rose, A., Yellen, J., & Sims, C. A. (1988): “The new Keynesian economics and the output-inflation trade-off”, Brookings papers on economic activity, s. 1-82.
  • Bayat, Tayfur, Selim Kayhan ve Ali Kocyigit (2013): "Asymmetric Behavior of Unemployment Analysis with Regime Switching Models in Turkey." Business and Economics Research Journal 4.2, s. 197.
  • Belaire-Franch, Jorge, and Amado Peiró (2015): “Asymmetry in the relationship between unemployment and the business cycle”, Empirical Economics 48.2, s. 683-697.
  • Bocklet, Johanna, and Jungho Baek (2017): “Do oil price changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the unemployment rate?: Empirical evidence from Alaska”, Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy 12.5, s. 402-407.
  • Bodman, Philip M. (1998): “Asymmetry and duration dependence in Australian GDP and unemployment”, Economic Record 74.227, s. 399-411.
  • Caggiano, Giovanni, Efrem Castelnuovo, and Juan Manuel Figueres (2017): “Economic policy uncertainty and unemployment in the United States: A nonlinear approach”, Economics Letters 151, s. 31-34.
  • Caggiano, Giovanni, Efrem Castelnuovo, and Nicolas Groshenny (2014): “Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics in US recessions”, Journal of Monetary Economics 67, s. 78-92.
  • Cancelo, José Ramón (2007): “Cyclical asymmetries in unemployment rates: international evidence”, International Advances in Economic Research 13.3, s. 334-346.
  • Corrado, Carol, and Joe Mattey (1997): Capacity utilization”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives 11.1, s. 151-167.
  • Ergeç, Etem Hakan (2007); "Türkiye Ekonomisinde Pozitif ve Negatif Para Politikası Şoklarının Asimetrik Etkileri" Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Doktora Tezi (2007): 1-9, Dumlupınar üniversitesi, sosyal bilimler dergisi, Nisan 2009, sayı: 23, s. 71-334-335.
  • French, Mark W., and Daniel E. Sichel (1993): “Cyclical patterns in the variance of economic activity”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 11.1, s. 113-119.
  • Harris, Richard, and Brian Silverstone (2001): “Testing for asymmetry in Okun’s law: A cross-country comparison”, Economics Bulletin 5.2, s. 1-13.
  • Holmes, Mark J., and Brian Silverstone (2006): “Okun's law, asymmetries and jobless recoveries in the United States: A Markov-switching approach”, Economics Letters 92.2, s. 293-299.
  • Huang, Ho-Chuan, and Chih-Chuan Yeh (2013): “Okun's law in panels of countries and states”, Applied Economics 45.2, s. 191-199.
  • Hutengs, Oliver, and Georg Stadtmann (2013): “Age effects in Okun's law within the Eurozone”, Applied Economics Letters 20.9, s. 821-825.
  • Jirasakuldech, Benjamas, and Sean Snaith (2011): “Asymmetry in US state unemployment rates”, Journal of Business & Economics Research (JBER) 4.6.
  • Karras, Georgios (1996): “Why are the effects of money-supply shocks asymmetric? Convex aggregate supply or “pushing on a string’?.”, Journal of Macroeconomics 18.4, s. 605-619.
  • Kargı, Bilal (2013): "Ücret Yapışkanlığı Hipotezinin Test Edilmesi: Türkiye’de Asgari Ücret Ve Büyüme Üzerine Zaman Serileri Analizi (2005-2012), (Testing Wage Rigidity Stickiness Hypothesis: Time Series Analysis on the Minimum Wage and Growth in Turkey (2005-2012))", s.187.
  • Koop, Gary, and Simon M. Potter (1999): “Dynamic asymmetries in US unemployment”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 17.3, s. 298-312.
  • Koutroulis, Aristotelis, Yannis Panagopoulos, and Ekaterini Tsouma (2016): “Asymmetry in the response of unemployment to output changes in Greece: Evidence from hidden co-integration”, The Journal of Economic Asymmetries 13, s. 81-88.
  • Parasız, İ., and M. Bildirici. "Emek Piyasaları." Ezgi Kitapevi, Bursa (2002). Peersman, Gert, and Frank Smets (2005): “The industry effects of monetary policy in the euro area”, The Economic Journal 115.503, s.320.
  • Psaradakis, Zacharias, and Martin Sola (2003): “On detrending and cyclical asymmetry”, Journal of applied econometrics 18.3, s. 271-289.
  • Palombi, Silvia, Roger Perman, and Christophe Tavéra (2015): “Regional growth and unemployment in the medium run: asymmetric cointegrated Okun’s Law for UK regions”, Applied Economics 47.57, s. 6228-6238.
  • Peat, Maurice, and Max Stevenson (1996): “Asymmetry in the business cycle: Evidence from the Australian labour market”, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 30.3, s. 353-368.
  • Peel, David A., and A. E. H. Speight (1998): “The nonlinear time series properties of unemployment rates: some further evidence”, Applied Economics 30.2, s. 287-294.
  • Robert, R., G. C. Lim, and Jan van Ours (2016): “Revisiting the Okun relationship”, Applied Economics, s. 1-17.
  • Silvapulle, Paramsothy, Imad A. Moosa, and Mervyn J. Silvapulle (2004): “Asymmetry in Okun's law”, Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique 37.2, s. 353-374.

The Analysing of Transitory and Permanent Shocks in Labor Market and Asymmetric Response of Unemployment Rate to Expansion Contraction: Turkey Case

Yıl 2017, Sayı: 34, 217 - 242, 31.12.2017

Öz

The objective of the present study is to scrutinize the characteristics of the shocks in Turkish labor market and to analyze the reactions of unemployment rates based on growth and growth regimes. Thus, the subject matter of the main reasons behind the deviations from the trends in unemployment rates, which is significant for all policy makers, would provide them a flexibility in ensuring spontaneous stability and growth. Especially easy access of financial units to information and their ability to adopt to expectations immediately would cause the above mentioned variable to react differently depending on existing growth and growth regimes. Thus, there would be mistakes in policy deductions made with findings of the studies that ignore these relationships. This deficiency is considered in the present study and the reactions of unemployment rates to the regimes would be determined using BBQ, MBBQ, TR, skewness and kurtosis criteria based on date, duration and severity. Based on the results obtained in the tests whether theoretical structures such as asymmetrical motion of unemployment phenomenon, growth without employment, unemployment hysteria and natural ratio exist or not.

Kaynakça

  • Abasız, Tezcan (2013): “İş Çevrimlerinde Asimetrik İlişkilerin Araştırılması Ve Türkiye’de Devresel Hareketler İçin Öncü Gösterge Endeksinin Oluşturulması”, Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü İktisat Anabilim Dalı, Doktora Tezi, s. 43-51.
  • Agénor, Pierre-Richard (2002): “Business Cycles, Economic Crises, and the Poor”, The Journal of Policy Reform 5.3, s. 147.
  • Apap, Wayne, and Daniel Gravino. "A sectoral approach to Okun’s Law" Applied Economics Letters 24.5 (2017): 319-324.
  • Ball, L., Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D., Akerlof, G. A., Rose, A., Yellen, J., & Sims, C. A. (1988): “The new Keynesian economics and the output-inflation trade-off”, Brookings papers on economic activity, s. 1-82.
  • Bayat, Tayfur, Selim Kayhan ve Ali Kocyigit (2013): "Asymmetric Behavior of Unemployment Analysis with Regime Switching Models in Turkey." Business and Economics Research Journal 4.2, s. 197.
  • Belaire-Franch, Jorge, and Amado Peiró (2015): “Asymmetry in the relationship between unemployment and the business cycle”, Empirical Economics 48.2, s. 683-697.
  • Bocklet, Johanna, and Jungho Baek (2017): “Do oil price changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the unemployment rate?: Empirical evidence from Alaska”, Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy 12.5, s. 402-407.
  • Bodman, Philip M. (1998): “Asymmetry and duration dependence in Australian GDP and unemployment”, Economic Record 74.227, s. 399-411.
  • Caggiano, Giovanni, Efrem Castelnuovo, and Juan Manuel Figueres (2017): “Economic policy uncertainty and unemployment in the United States: A nonlinear approach”, Economics Letters 151, s. 31-34.
  • Caggiano, Giovanni, Efrem Castelnuovo, and Nicolas Groshenny (2014): “Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics in US recessions”, Journal of Monetary Economics 67, s. 78-92.
  • Cancelo, José Ramón (2007): “Cyclical asymmetries in unemployment rates: international evidence”, International Advances in Economic Research 13.3, s. 334-346.
  • Corrado, Carol, and Joe Mattey (1997): Capacity utilization”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives 11.1, s. 151-167.
  • Ergeç, Etem Hakan (2007); "Türkiye Ekonomisinde Pozitif ve Negatif Para Politikası Şoklarının Asimetrik Etkileri" Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Doktora Tezi (2007): 1-9, Dumlupınar üniversitesi, sosyal bilimler dergisi, Nisan 2009, sayı: 23, s. 71-334-335.
  • French, Mark W., and Daniel E. Sichel (1993): “Cyclical patterns in the variance of economic activity”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 11.1, s. 113-119.
  • Harris, Richard, and Brian Silverstone (2001): “Testing for asymmetry in Okun’s law: A cross-country comparison”, Economics Bulletin 5.2, s. 1-13.
  • Holmes, Mark J., and Brian Silverstone (2006): “Okun's law, asymmetries and jobless recoveries in the United States: A Markov-switching approach”, Economics Letters 92.2, s. 293-299.
  • Huang, Ho-Chuan, and Chih-Chuan Yeh (2013): “Okun's law in panels of countries and states”, Applied Economics 45.2, s. 191-199.
  • Hutengs, Oliver, and Georg Stadtmann (2013): “Age effects in Okun's law within the Eurozone”, Applied Economics Letters 20.9, s. 821-825.
  • Jirasakuldech, Benjamas, and Sean Snaith (2011): “Asymmetry in US state unemployment rates”, Journal of Business & Economics Research (JBER) 4.6.
  • Karras, Georgios (1996): “Why are the effects of money-supply shocks asymmetric? Convex aggregate supply or “pushing on a string’?.”, Journal of Macroeconomics 18.4, s. 605-619.
  • Kargı, Bilal (2013): "Ücret Yapışkanlığı Hipotezinin Test Edilmesi: Türkiye’de Asgari Ücret Ve Büyüme Üzerine Zaman Serileri Analizi (2005-2012), (Testing Wage Rigidity Stickiness Hypothesis: Time Series Analysis on the Minimum Wage and Growth in Turkey (2005-2012))", s.187.
  • Koop, Gary, and Simon M. Potter (1999): “Dynamic asymmetries in US unemployment”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 17.3, s. 298-312.
  • Koutroulis, Aristotelis, Yannis Panagopoulos, and Ekaterini Tsouma (2016): “Asymmetry in the response of unemployment to output changes in Greece: Evidence from hidden co-integration”, The Journal of Economic Asymmetries 13, s. 81-88.
  • Parasız, İ., and M. Bildirici. "Emek Piyasaları." Ezgi Kitapevi, Bursa (2002). Peersman, Gert, and Frank Smets (2005): “The industry effects of monetary policy in the euro area”, The Economic Journal 115.503, s.320.
  • Psaradakis, Zacharias, and Martin Sola (2003): “On detrending and cyclical asymmetry”, Journal of applied econometrics 18.3, s. 271-289.
  • Palombi, Silvia, Roger Perman, and Christophe Tavéra (2015): “Regional growth and unemployment in the medium run: asymmetric cointegrated Okun’s Law for UK regions”, Applied Economics 47.57, s. 6228-6238.
  • Peat, Maurice, and Max Stevenson (1996): “Asymmetry in the business cycle: Evidence from the Australian labour market”, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 30.3, s. 353-368.
  • Peel, David A., and A. E. H. Speight (1998): “The nonlinear time series properties of unemployment rates: some further evidence”, Applied Economics 30.2, s. 287-294.
  • Robert, R., G. C. Lim, and Jan van Ours (2016): “Revisiting the Okun relationship”, Applied Economics, s. 1-17.
  • Silvapulle, Paramsothy, Imad A. Moosa, and Mervyn J. Silvapulle (2004): “Asymmetry in Okun's law”, Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique 37.2, s. 353-374.
Toplam 30 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Tezcan Abasız Bu kişi benim

Özde Özyünsel Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Aralık 2017
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2017 Sayı: 34

Kaynak Göster

APA Abasız, T., & Özyünsel, Ö. (2017). Emek Piyasasında Geçici ve Kalıcı Şokların Analizi Ve İşsizlik Oranlarının Genişleme ve Daralma Rejimlerine Göre Asimetrik Tepkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi(34), 217-242.

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