Macroeconomic Effect on the Automobile Sales in Top Four Automobile Production Countries

Yıl 2018, Sayı: 35, 139 - 161, 01.07.2018

Ferhat Pehlivanoğlu Retno Riyanti

Öz

The automotive industry is a major industrial and economic force worldwide. This paper examines macroeconomic effect with six variables on the automobile sales in top four automobile production countries. These variables are real GDP, GDP per capita, automobile production, inflation, gasoline price, and exchange rate; and the countries has been selected are China, USA, Japan, and Germany that has first four highest automobile production countries in the world. The findings shows that real GDP, car production, gasoline price have positive impact towards car sales while change in GDP percapita, inflation and exchange rate cause the opposite. Some variables in this research based on findings is inconsistent with the previous findings done by other researcher. While for those top countries GDP percapita and gasoline price have different effect to the automobile sales. The reason of that situation is because GDP percapita that reflect fluctuation of income perpeople of those countries have no significant effectto the number of automobile sales.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Automobile Sales, Real GDP, Automobile Production, Gasoline Price

En Büyük Dört Otomobil Üreticisi Ülkedeki Araç Satışlarının Makroekonomik Etkileri

Öz

Otomotiv endüstrisi dünya genelinde önemli bir sanayi kolu ve ülkeler için ekonomik bir güçtür. Bu çalışmanın amacı altı değişkenin otomobil üretimi üzerindeki makroekonomik etkisini incelemektir. Söz konusu değişkenler; reel GSYİH, kişi başı GSYİH, otomobil üretimi, enflasyon oranları, benzin fiyatları ve döviz kurudur. Çalışmanın analiz kısmı için seçilen ülkeler ise Çin, ABD, Japonya ve Almanya'dır. Bu ekonomiler dünyada otomobil üretiminde en büyük pay sahibi ilk dört ülkedir. Çalışma bulgularına göre, reel GSYİH, otomobil üretimi ve benzin fiyatlarının otomobil satışları üzerinde olumlu etkileri olduğunu gösterirken, kişi başı GSYİH, enflasyon ve döviz kuru tam tersi olarak üretim üzerinde olumsuz etkiler göstermiştir. Bu çalışmadaki bazı değişkenlerin otomobil satışı üzerindeki etkileri literatürdeki diğer bazı çalışmalara göre çelişen sonuçlar göstermiştir. Örneğin bu üst düzey ülkeler için kişi başı GSYİH ve benzin fiyatlarının otomobil satışları üzerinde farklı etkileri vardır. Bu durumun nedeni, söz konusu ülkelerin her birinin kişi başına düşen gelir düzeylerinin büyük dalgalanma göstermesidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Otomobil Satışları, Otomobil Üretimi, Benzin Fiyatları

Kaynakça

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