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Macroeconomic Effect on the Automobile Sales in Top Four Automobile Production Countries

Yıl 2018, Sayı: 35, 139 - 161, 01.07.2018

Öz

The automotive industry is a major industrial and economic force worldwide. This paper examines macroeconomic effect with six variables on the automobile sales in top four automobile production countries. These variables are real GDP, GDP per capita, automobile production, inflation, gasoline price, and exchange rate; and the countries has been selected are China, USA, Japan, and Germany that has first four highest automobile production countries in the world. The findings shows that real GDP, car production, gasoline price have positive impact towards car sales while change in GDP percapita, inflation and exchange rate cause the opposite. Some variables in this research based on findings is inconsistent with the previous findings done by other researcher. While for those top countries GDP percapita and gasoline price have different effect to the automobile sales. The reason of that situation is because GDP percapita that reflect fluctuation of income perpeople of those countries have no significant effectto the number of automobile sales.

Kaynakça

  • Analysis for ASEAN Countries, IOSR Journal of Business and Management, 2(1), 15-21. Babatsou, Christina and Zervas, Efthimios, (2011), EU Socioeconomic Indicators and Car Market, World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology.
  • Ben McLannahan and Chris Giles, (2014), “Sales Tax Tips Japan Back into Recession,” Financial Times, 17 November.
  • Breusch, T. and Pagan, A. (1979).A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation.Econometrica, 47, 1287-1294.
  • Berry, S., J. Levinsohn, And A. Pakes(1992): "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," NBER Working Paper No. 4264. Chifurira, R., Mudhombo, I., Chokobvu, M., and
  • Dubihlela, D., (2014), The Impact of Inflation on the Automobile Sales in South Africa, ISSN 2039-2117, vol. 5, No. 7, pp: 200-207. DargayJoyce M. and Gately, Detmot, (1999). Income’s effect on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide: 1960-2015, Transportation Research Part A, 33, pp. 101-138.
  • Dixit, A. (1988): "Optimal Trade and Industrial Policy for the U.S. Automobile Industry," in Empirical Methods for Intemrational Trade, ed. by R. Feenstra. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  • DynaquestSdnBhd, (2002), Update on a section of the Motor Vehicle Report on BSAIndustry Overview, Prospect, Directors and Management.
  • Economic Outlook No:1210, (2014), The Global Automotive Market-Back on four wheels, Euler Hermes.
  • EIU, Economist Intelligence Unit, (2016), Country Data, (Accessed 29 December 2016).
  • GTAI, Germany Trade and Invest, (2017), Industry Overview: The Automotive Industry in Germany 2016/2017.
  • Gujarati, D. (2003), Basic Econometrics. 4th ed. New York: McGraw Hill, pp. 638-640.
  • Goldberg, K. P. (1995), Product Differentiation and Oligopoly in International Markets:
  • The Case of U.S. Automobile Industry. Econometrica Haugh, D., Mourıugane, A. and Chatal, O. (2010). The Automobile Industry in and Beyond the Crisis.
  • Hensher, D., And V. Le Plastrier (1983): "A Dynamic Discrete Choice Model of Household Automobile Fleet Size and Composition," Working Paper No. 6, Dimensions of Automobile Demand Project, Macquarie University, North Ryde, Australia.
  • Hsiao, C., (2003), Analysis of Panel Data. 2nd ed. United Kindom: Cambridge University Press, 1-7
  • IMF Data Mapper: World Economic Outlook (October 2015), IMF, (Accessed on 29 December 2016). http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/index.php.
  • IMF, (2016), World Economic Outlook-Too Slow for Too Long.
  • JAMA, Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, (2015), Inc. The Motor Industry of Japan 2015, P. 4.
  • JATO, (2016), Global Car Market, New Car Sales 2016-Q1.
  • Joyce M. Dargay (2001), The effect of income on car ownership: evidence of asymmetry, Transportation Research Part A, 35, pp. 807-821.
  • KPMG.(2016), China Outlook, KPMG Global China Practice.
  • Levinsohn, J. (1988): "Empirics of Taxes on Differentiated Products: The Case of Tariffs in the U.S. Automobile Industry," in Trade Policy Issues and Empirical Analysis, ed. by R. Baldwin. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
  • Mannering, F., And K. Train (1985): "Recent Directions in Automobile Demand Modelling," Transportation Research, 19B, 265-274.
  • Muhammad, F., Hussin, M. Y. M., &Razak, A. A. (2012). Automobile Sales and Macroeconomic Variables: A Pooled Mean Group
  • OECD, (2015), OECD Economic Surveys Japan, April 2015 Overview.
  • OECD, (2016), OECD Economic Surveys United State, June 2016 Overview. www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-united-states.htm
  • Shahabudin,Syed, (2009), Forecasting automobile sales, Management Research News, 32:7, pp. 670-682.
  • Smith, Brett and Chen, Yen (2009), The Major Determinants of US Automotive Demand: Factors driving US Automotive Market and Their Implications for Specialty Equipment and Performance Aftermarket Suppliers, Center for Automotive Research.

En Büyük Dört Otomobil Üreticisi Ülkedeki Araç Satışlarının Makroekonomik Etkileri

Yıl 2018, Sayı: 35, 139 - 161, 01.07.2018

Öz

Otomotiv endüstrisi dünya genelinde önemli bir sanayi kolu ve ülkeler için ekonomik bir güçtür. Bu çalışmanın amacı altı değişkenin otomobil üretimi üzerindeki makroekonomik etkisini incelemektir. Söz konusu değişkenler; reel GSYİH, kişi başı GSYİH, otomobil üretimi, enflasyon oranları, benzin fiyatları ve döviz kurudur. Çalışmanın analiz kısmı için seçilen ülkeler ise Çin, ABD, Japonya ve Almanya'dır. Bu ekonomiler dünyada otomobil üretiminde en büyük pay sahibi ilk dört ülkedir. Çalışma bulgularına göre, reel GSYİH, otomobil üretimi ve benzin fiyatlarının otomobil satışları üzerinde olumlu etkileri olduğunu gösterirken, kişi başı GSYİH, enflasyon ve döviz kuru tam tersi olarak üretim üzerinde olumsuz etkiler göstermiştir. Bu çalışmadaki bazı değişkenlerin otomobil satışı üzerindeki etkileri literatürdeki diğer bazı çalışmalara göre çelişen sonuçlar göstermiştir. Örneğin bu üst düzey ülkeler için kişi başı GSYİH ve benzin fiyatlarının otomobil satışları üzerinde farklı etkileri vardır. Bu durumun nedeni, söz konusu ülkelerin her birinin kişi başına düşen gelir düzeylerinin büyük dalgalanma göstermesidir.

Kaynakça

  • Analysis for ASEAN Countries, IOSR Journal of Business and Management, 2(1), 15-21. Babatsou, Christina and Zervas, Efthimios, (2011), EU Socioeconomic Indicators and Car Market, World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology.
  • Ben McLannahan and Chris Giles, (2014), “Sales Tax Tips Japan Back into Recession,” Financial Times, 17 November.
  • Breusch, T. and Pagan, A. (1979).A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation.Econometrica, 47, 1287-1294.
  • Berry, S., J. Levinsohn, And A. Pakes(1992): "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," NBER Working Paper No. 4264. Chifurira, R., Mudhombo, I., Chokobvu, M., and
  • Dubihlela, D., (2014), The Impact of Inflation on the Automobile Sales in South Africa, ISSN 2039-2117, vol. 5, No. 7, pp: 200-207. DargayJoyce M. and Gately, Detmot, (1999). Income’s effect on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide: 1960-2015, Transportation Research Part A, 33, pp. 101-138.
  • Dixit, A. (1988): "Optimal Trade and Industrial Policy for the U.S. Automobile Industry," in Empirical Methods for Intemrational Trade, ed. by R. Feenstra. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  • DynaquestSdnBhd, (2002), Update on a section of the Motor Vehicle Report on BSAIndustry Overview, Prospect, Directors and Management.
  • Economic Outlook No:1210, (2014), The Global Automotive Market-Back on four wheels, Euler Hermes.
  • EIU, Economist Intelligence Unit, (2016), Country Data, (Accessed 29 December 2016).
  • GTAI, Germany Trade and Invest, (2017), Industry Overview: The Automotive Industry in Germany 2016/2017.
  • Gujarati, D. (2003), Basic Econometrics. 4th ed. New York: McGraw Hill, pp. 638-640.
  • Goldberg, K. P. (1995), Product Differentiation and Oligopoly in International Markets:
  • The Case of U.S. Automobile Industry. Econometrica Haugh, D., Mourıugane, A. and Chatal, O. (2010). The Automobile Industry in and Beyond the Crisis.
  • Hensher, D., And V. Le Plastrier (1983): "A Dynamic Discrete Choice Model of Household Automobile Fleet Size and Composition," Working Paper No. 6, Dimensions of Automobile Demand Project, Macquarie University, North Ryde, Australia.
  • Hsiao, C., (2003), Analysis of Panel Data. 2nd ed. United Kindom: Cambridge University Press, 1-7
  • IMF Data Mapper: World Economic Outlook (October 2015), IMF, (Accessed on 29 December 2016). http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/index.php.
  • IMF, (2016), World Economic Outlook-Too Slow for Too Long.
  • JAMA, Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, (2015), Inc. The Motor Industry of Japan 2015, P. 4.
  • JATO, (2016), Global Car Market, New Car Sales 2016-Q1.
  • Joyce M. Dargay (2001), The effect of income on car ownership: evidence of asymmetry, Transportation Research Part A, 35, pp. 807-821.
  • KPMG.(2016), China Outlook, KPMG Global China Practice.
  • Levinsohn, J. (1988): "Empirics of Taxes on Differentiated Products: The Case of Tariffs in the U.S. Automobile Industry," in Trade Policy Issues and Empirical Analysis, ed. by R. Baldwin. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
  • Mannering, F., And K. Train (1985): "Recent Directions in Automobile Demand Modelling," Transportation Research, 19B, 265-274.
  • Muhammad, F., Hussin, M. Y. M., &Razak, A. A. (2012). Automobile Sales and Macroeconomic Variables: A Pooled Mean Group
  • OECD, (2015), OECD Economic Surveys Japan, April 2015 Overview.
  • OECD, (2016), OECD Economic Surveys United State, June 2016 Overview. www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-united-states.htm
  • Shahabudin,Syed, (2009), Forecasting automobile sales, Management Research News, 32:7, pp. 670-682.
  • Smith, Brett and Chen, Yen (2009), The Major Determinants of US Automotive Demand: Factors driving US Automotive Market and Their Implications for Specialty Equipment and Performance Aftermarket Suppliers, Center for Automotive Research.
Toplam 28 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Ferhat Pehlivanoğlu Bu kişi benim

Retno Riyanti Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Temmuz 2018
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2018 Sayı: 35

Kaynak Göster

APA Pehlivanoğlu, F., & Riyanti, R. (2018). Macroeconomic Effect on the Automobile Sales in Top Four Automobile Production Countries. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi(35), 139-161.

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