A Theoretical, Conceptual and Statistical Evaluation of Real Wages in the Context of the Monetary Illusion in the Inflation Environment and Industry 4.0

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 227 - 243, 15.05.2022

Ahmet Efe

https://doi.org/10.33712/mana.1084069

Öz

Decreasing real wages and negative taxation with inflation is a critical and controversial issue that is frequently brought up by trade unions but is not generally accepted by employers and governments. While real wages generally show a downward trend in inflation, workers' rejoicing at the hikes they receive was first reported in the literature by Irving Fisher and then Milton Friedman as a "money illusion" and macroeconomists are continuing studies on this subject. Discussions continue that many white-collar business areas will now reach a point where they can be freed from workers, with artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms and robotic technology taking automation to a higher level. Especially with the Industry 4.0 (4IR) paradigm in which dark factories and complete automation are discussed, while the current employment areas are shrinking, it has been a matter of curiosity how real wages will follow and whether a monetary illusion will occur. In this study, in the light of the relevant literature and sectoral reports, the decline in real wages is analyzed in the context of the Turkish public sector, and futuristic evaluations are made in connection with technological progress. In addition, it was given importance to determine the wage groups in which the course of real wages decreased between two points. According to the findings, it has been determined that wages did not see a significant increase in real terms between 2003 and 2022, and the wage group that suffered actual losses was the academicians, general managers and governors in the sample. Our study argues that there is a monetary illusion on the real wages, and automation systems developed with AI can provide the opportunity to easily access accurate information on time about nominal and real wages and monetary illusion status through innovative MIS applications.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Monetary Illusion, Real Wages, Inflation, Industry 4.0, MIS

Enflasyon Ortamındaki Parasal İllüzyon ve Endüstri 4.0 Bağlamında Reel Ücretler Üzerinde Kuramsal, Kavramsal ve İstatistiksel Bir Değerlendirme

Öz

Enflasyonist ortamlarda reel ücretler genelde düşüş eğilimi gösterirken işçilerin aldıkları zamlara sevinmeleri “Money ilusion- parasal yanılgı” olarak önce Irving Fisher ve daha sonra da Milton Friedman tarafından literatüre geçirilmiş olup halen bu konuda çalışmalar özellikle makro iktisatçılar tarafından devam ettirilmektedir. Aslında reel ücretlerin düştüğü ve aslında enflasyonla birlikte negatif vergileme yapıldığı konusu işçi sendikaları tarafından sıkça gündeme getirilen ancak işverenler ile hükümetler tarafından genelde hiçbir şekilde kabul edilmeyen kritik ve tartışmalı bir husustur. Yapay zekâ (YZ) algoritmaları ile robotik teknolojinin otomasyonu ileri seviyeye çıkarmasıyla pek çok beyaz yaka iş alanlarının da artık işçilerden arındırılabilecek bir noktaya varacağı üzerinde tartışmalar devam etmektedir. Özellikle karanlık fabrikaların ve tam otomasyonun konuşulduğu Endüstri 4.0 (4IR) paradigması ile mevcut istihdam alanları daralırken reel ücretlerin nasıl bir seyir izleyeceği ve parasal illüzyonun meydana gelip gelmeyeceği merak konusu olmuştur. Bu çalışmada, ilgili literatür ve sektörel raporlar ışığında reel ücretlerdeki düşüş Türkiye kamu sektörü bağlamında analiz edilmekte ve teknolojik ilerlemeyle bağlantılı olarak fütürist değerlendirmeler yapılmaktadır. Ayrıca reel ücretlerin iki nokta arasındaki seyrinde düşüş yaşanan ücret gruplarının da belirlenmesine önem verilmiştir. Yapılan tespitlere göre 2003 ile 2022 yılları arasında reel olarak ücretlerin ciddi bir artış görmemiş olduğu ve reel kayba uğrayan ücret grubunun da örneklemdeki akademisyenler, genel müdürler ve valiler olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Çalışmamızda reel ücretlerle ilgili parasal illüzyonun mevcut olduğu ve YZ ile gelişen otomasyon sistemlerinin akıllı YBS uygulamaları üzerinden nominal ve reel ücretler ve parasal illüzyon durumu hakkında kolayca doğru bilgiye zamanında ulaşabilme imkânı sağlayabileceği savunulmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Parasal Yanılgı, Reel Ücretler, Enflasyon, Endüstri 4.0, YBS

Kaynakça

• ALDAN, Altan ve GÜRCİHAN YÜNCÜLER, H. Burcu (2016), “Türkiye'de Reel Ücretler ve İş Döngüsü”. TCMB Çalışma Tebliği, TCMB Yayını, Ankara.
• ALDAN, Altan ve GÜRCİHAN YÜNCÜLER, H. Burcu (2017), “Decomposition of Real Wage Growth in Turkey”, Research Notes in Economics, S.2017(6), https://t.ly/fc4D (Erişim Tarihi: 03.08.2021).
• BALTAGİ, Badi H., BAŞKAYA, Yusuf Soner ve HULAGU, Timur (2012), "The Turkish Wage Curve: Evidence from the Household Labor Force Survey", Economics Letters, S.114, ss.128–131.
• BALTAGİ, Badi H., BAŞKAYA, Yusuf Soner ve HULAGU, Timur (2013), "How Different Are The Wage Curves for Formal and Informal Workers? Evidence From Turkey", Papers in Regional Science, S.92, ss.271-283.
• BOZKURT, Cuma (2014), “Money, Inflation and Growth Relationship: The Turkish Case”, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, S.4(2), ss.309-322.
• CFI – CORPORATE FINANCE INSTITUTE (2020), “Phillips Curve: Graph of The Short-Term Relationship between Unemployment and Inflation”, Corporate Finance Institute (E-Article), https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/economics/about-phillips-curve/ (Erişim Tarihi: 03.08.2021).
• CHRISTOPOULOS, Dimitris K. ve TSIONAS, Efthymios T. (2005), “Productivity growth and Inflation in Europe: Evidence from Panel Cointegration Tests”, Empirical Economics, S.30, ss.137-150.
• ÇİĞDEM, Serpil (2019), “Industry 4.0 and an Evaluation of Digital Labor Platforms in the Context of Decent Work”, Journal of Social Policy Conferences, S.77, ss.157-199.
• ELVEREN, Adem Yavuz (2010), “Wage Inequalıty in Turkey: Decomposıtıon by Statıstıcal Regıons, 1980-2001”, Urban & Regional Development Studies, S.22(1), ss.55-72.
• ERYILMAZ, Filiz ve BAKIR, Hasan (2018), “Real Wages, Inflation and Labor Productivity: An Evaluation within Turkish Context”, Hitit University Journal of Social Sciences Institute, S.11(3), ss.1946-1959, https://acikerisim.iku.edu.tr/handle/11413/4822 (Erişim Tarihi: 03.08.2021).
• FEHR, Ernst ve TYRAN, Jean Robert (2001), "Does Money Illusion Matter?", American Economic Review, S.91(5), ss.1239-1262.
• GRUNDMANN, Susanna, GIAMATTEI, Marcus ve LAMBSDORFF, Johann Graf (2019), “Intentions Rather than Money Illusion – Why Nominal Changes Induce Real Effects”, European Economic Review, S.119, ss.166-178.
• GÜNAY, Aslı, KIVILCIM, Metin Özcan ve YELDAN, Erinç (2005), “Real Wages, Profit Margins and Inflation in Turkish Manufacturing Under Post-Liberalization”, Applied Economics, S.37(16), ss.1899-1905.
• GÜRCİHAN YÜNCÜLER, H. Burcu ve YÜNCÜLER, Çağlar (2016), “Türkiye'de Asgari Ücretin İşgücü Piyasası Sonuçlarına Etkileri”, TCMB Çalışma Tebliği, TCMB Yayını, Ankara.
• HOWITT, Peter (1989), “Money Illusion”, Money (Eds. J. Eatwell, M. Milgate, P. Newman), The New Palgrave - Palgrave Macmillan Publisher, London (UK).
• İLKKARACAN, İpek ve SELİM, Raziye (2003), "The Role of Unemployment in Wage Determination: Further Evidence on The Wage Curve From Turkey", Applied Economics, S.35, ss.1589-1598.
• KENWORTHY, Lane (2001), “Wage-Setting Measures: A Survey and Assessment”, World Politics, S.54(1), ss.57-98.
• KESGİNGÖZ, Hayrettin (2014), “Türkiye’deki Reel Ücretler Konjonktür Yönlü Müdür?”, Balkan Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, S.3(6), ss.130-148.
• KAHN, George A. ve WEINER, Stuart E. (1990), “Has the Cost of Disinflation Declined?”, Economic Review, S.1990(May/June), ss.1-24.
• KOÇ, Abdilcelil (2016), “Türkiye’de 1980 Sonrasının Politik İktisadı Bağlamında Asgari Ücret Analizi”, Çalışma ve Toplum Dergisi, S.2016(3), ss.1387-1408.
• KONYALI, Gonca (2012) "Wage Curve Evidence From Turkeys 2007-2009 Income and Living Conditions Survey", Investigaciones Regionales, S.24, ss.199-210.
• KORTMAZ, Adem (2004), “Bir Sosyal Politika Aracı Olarak Türkiye’de Asgari Ücret: 1951-2003”, Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, S.7(1), ss.53-69.
• KÖKSAL, Onur (2014), “Individual Differences in The Relationship Between Job and Life Satisfaction”, İş ve İnsan Dergisi, S.1(1), ss.53-62.
• KUMAR, Saten, WEBBER, Don J. ve PERRY, Geoff (2012), “Real Wages, Inflation and Labour Productivity in Australia”, Applied Economics, S.44(23), ss.2945-2954.
• KURT, Resul (2019), “Industry 4.0 in Terms of Industrial Relations and its Impacts on Labour Life”, Procedia Computer Science, S.158, ss.590-601.
• NARAYAN, Paresh ve SMYTH, Russell (2009), “The Effect of Inflation and Real Wages on Productivity: New Evidence from A Panel of G7 Countries”, Applied Economics, S.41(10), ss.1285-1291.
• ONARAN, Özlem (2002), "Measuring Wage Flexibility: The Case of Turkey Before and After Structural Adjustment", Applied Economics, S.34, ss.767-781.
• ONARAN, Özlem (2009), “Wage Share, Globalization and Crisis: The Case of The Manufacturing Industry in Korea, Mexico and Turkey”, International Review of Applied Economics, S.23(2), ss.113-134.
• PRADO, Svante (2008), “Nominal and Real Wages of Manufacturing Workers, 1860-2007”, Exchange Rates, Prices, and Wages, 1277-2008, Riksbank Press, Stockholm ss.479-527.
• RAM, Rati (1984), “Causal Ordering Across Inflation and Productivity Growth in the Post-War United States”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, S.66(3), ss.472-477.
• SAYLORDOTORG (2020), “Raising The Wage Floor (Chapter 11)”, Economics: Theory Through Applications (E-Chapter), https://saylordotorg.github.io/text_economics-theory-through-applications/s15-raising-the-wage-floor.html (Erişim Tarihi: 03.08.2021).
• SCHÖNSLEBEN, Paul, FONTANA, Filippo ve DUCHI, Aldo (2017), “What Benefits do Initiatives Such as Industry 4.0 Offer for Production Locations in High-wage Countries?”, Procedia CIRP, S.63, ss.179-183.
• SÖZCÜ (2021), “Sanayide Üretim ve Verimlilik Arttı, Reel Birim Ücretler Azaldı”, Sözcü Gazetesi, 24 Şubat 2021, https://www.sozcu.com.tr/2021/ekonomi/sanayide-uretim-ve-verimlilik-artti-reel-birim-ucretler-azaldi-6278869/ (Erişim Tarihi: 03.08.2021).
• STRAUSS, Jack ve WOHAR, Mark (2004), “The Linkage Between Prices, Wages, And Labor Productivity: A Panel Study of Manufacturing Industries”, Southern Economic Journal, S.70(4), ss.920-941.
• SÜMER, Beyza (2018), “Impact of Industry 4.0 on Occupations and Employment in Turkey”, European Scientific Journal - ESJ, S.14(10), ss.1-17.
• T24 (2021), “Sanayide Üretim Yüzde 2,2 Artarken, Reel Birim Ücreti 3,2 Azaldı”, T24 İnternet Gazetesi, 24 Şubat 2021, https://t24.com.tr/haber/sanayide-uretim-yuzde-2-2-artarken-reel-birim-ucreti-3-2-azaldi,935132 (Erişim Tarihi: 03.08.2021).
• TAKUMA, Habu (2011), “Money Illusion and its Implication on Unemployment”, Undergraduate Economic Review, S.7(1), ss.(Article 10).
• TANG, Chor Foon (2014), “The Effect of Real Wages and Inflation on Labour Productivity in Malaysia”, International Review of Applied Economics, S.28(3), ss.311-322.
• TCMB – TÜRKİYE CUMHURİYETİ MERKEZ BANKASI (2018), “Türkiye'nin Ücret Dinamiklerini Anlamak”, TCMM Enflasyon Raporu, S.2018(IV), ss.54-57(Kutu 4.1).
• VINCZE, Janos (2019), “Money Illusion: Reconsidered in the Light of Cognitive Science”, Acta Oeconomica Acta Oeconomica, S.69(2), ss.191-215.
• WAKEFORD, Jeremy (2004), “The Productivity-Wage Relationship in South Africa: An Empirical Investigation”, Development Southern Africa, S.21(1), ss.109-132.
• WEBER, Bernd, RANGEL, Antonio, WIBRAL, Matthias ve FALK, Armin (2009), “The Medial Prefrontal Cortex Exhibits Money Illusion”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Mar, S.106(13), ss.5025-5028.
• YAVUZ, Ayşe Arzu ve ERDOĞAN COŞAR, Evren (2019), “Wage Dynamıcs in Turkey”, CBRT Blog, https://tcmbblog.org/wps/wcm/connect/blog/en/main+menu/analyses/wage+dynamics+in+turkey (Erişim Tarihi: 03.08.2021).
• YILDIRIM, Zekeriya (2015), “Relationships Among Labour Productivity, Real Wages and Inflation in Turkey”, Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, S.28(1), ss.85-103.
• YILMAZ ESER, Burçin ve TERZİ, Harun (2008), “Türkiye'de İşsizlik Sorunu ve Avrupa İstihdam Stratejisi”, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, S.30, ss.229-250.