Düzen, Düzensizlik, Yeniden Düzen: Liberal Uluslararası düzen Çin-Amerikan Rekabetini “Atlatabilir” mi?

Öz

Günümüzde uluslararası siyasetin geleceği, Çin-Amerikan rekabetinin nasıl şekilleneceğine bağlıdır. Bu rekabete ilişkin beklentiler, barışçıl evrimden hegemonik bir güç geçişi olasılığına kadar uzanmaktadır, ancak liberal uluslararası düzenin olayların seyrini şekillendirme olasılığının genelde göz ardı edildiği görülmektedir. Yapısı ve uyum yeteneğine bağlı olarak söz konusu düzen, bu rekabetin içinde cereyan ettiği ortamdan çok daha fazlasını ifade etmektedir. Amerikan ve Çin tercihlerinin önemli bir belirleyicisi olma ve ilişkileri iş birliğine doğru yöneltme kapasitesine sahiptir. Liberal uluslararası düzenin İkinci Dünya Savaşı sonrası dönemdeki başarısı, yaratmayı başardığı, karşılıklı kazanımların yanı sıra revizyonist dönüşümlerde yüksek maliyet yaratma gücüne sahip olmasıyla tanımlanan ortamın ürünüdür. Ayrıca bu düzen, devlet davranışı üzerinde etkili olmasını sağlayan yapısal bir karaktere de sahiptir. Liberal uluslararasıcı teoriye dayanan bu makale, liberal uluslararası düzenin yoğunlaşan büyük güç rekabetinin sonuçta kazananı olma olasılığının yüksek olduğunu savunmaktadır. Çeşitli argümanlara dayanan bu analiz, tarafların beklentilerine uygun, karar almaya ilişkin ikili bir liderlik mekanizması içeren ve yeniden şekillenen güç dinamiklerini yansıtan bir biçimde dönüşecek liberal uluslararası düzenin Çin-Amerikan çatışmasının çözümünde merkezi önemde olduğu sonucuna varmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Çin-Amerikan İlişkileri
• Liberal uluslararası düzen
• liberal uluslararasıcılık
• karşılıklı bağımlılık

Order, Disorder, Reorder: Can The Liberal International Order “Survive” the Sino-American Competition?

Öz

The future of international politics today hinges on how the Sino-American rivalry unfolds. Views vary from expectations of peaceful evolution to hegemonic transition, but many fail to recognize the significant role the liberal international order (LIO) can play in shaping the course of events. Thanks to its structure and adaptability, the LIO is more than the mere environment surrounding this rivalry and may be the primary determinant of American and Chinese choices, steering relations toward cooperation. The success of the LIO during the post-WWII era is notably the product of the environment it has managed to create, characterized by mutual gains, as well as considerable costs in the event of a revisionist disruption. Moreover, the LIO has a structural character that enables it to exert influence on state behavior. This article, drawing on liberal internationalist theory, contends that the LIO demonstrates the substantial potential to emerge as the ultimate “victor” amidst the intensifying rivalry between the two major actors. By evaluating multiple arguments, the analysis concludes that a reformed version of the LIO, which accommodates both American and Chinese aspirations, includes a dual leadership mechanism in decision-making, and reflects the newly shaped power dynamics, offers a viable solution to the Sino-American competition.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sino-American relations
• liberal international order
• liberal internationalism
• interdependence

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