İklim Değişikliğiyle Mücadelede Maliye Politikası: Türkiye İçin Emisyon Ticaret Sistemi ve Karbon Vergisi Seçenekleri

Yıl 2025, Sayı: Özel Sayı 3, 44 - 70, 31.12.2025

Gözde Nalbant Efe

https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.1836651

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’nin karbon fiyatlamasına geçişini maliye politikası perspektifinden inceleyerek emisyon ticaret sistemi (ETS) ile karbon vergisi seçeneklerini; gelir kapasitesi, öngörülebilirlik, idari uygulanabilirlik ve dağılımsal etkiler bakımından karşılaştırmaktadır. 2025 İklim Kanunu çerçevesinde, ulusal ETS’ye ilişkin kurumsal ve düzenleyici mimarinin oluşum süreci incelenmekte; ayrıca akaryakıt ürünleri üzerindeki vergilerin hâlihazırda örtük bir karbon fiyat sinyali ürettiği ortaya konulmaktadır. Çalışmada, ETS’nin emisyon miktarı üzerinde görece daha yüksek kesinlik sağlayabilmesine karşın, piyasada belirlenen karbon fiyatı nedeniyle kamu gelirlerinde istikrarsızlıklara yol açabileceği; gelirlerin çoğunlukla yeşil dönüşüme yönelik harcamalara tahsisinin ise gelir geri dönüşü mekanizmalarını sınırlayarak dağılımsal adaleti olumsuz etkileyebileceği vurgulanmaktadır. Buna karşılık karbon vergisi, emisyon miktarı üzerinde daha az kesinlik sağlarken, daha öngörülebilir bir gelir potansiyeli sunması ve hedefli telafi mekanizmalarına daha geniş bir mali alan tanıması nedeniyle öne çıkmaktadır. Çalışma, büyük emisyon yayıcıları için kademeli bir ETS uygulamasını; ETS kapsamı dışında kalan sektörlerde ise karbon esaslı vergilendirmeyi birleştiren hibrit bir çerçevenin uygulanabilirliğine işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Emisyon Ticaret Sistemi , Karbon Vergisi , Maliye Politikası , Türkiye

Fiscal Policy in Combating Climate Change: Emissions Trading System and Carbon Tax Options for Türkiye

Öz

This study assesses Türkiye’s shift toward carbon pricing from a fiscal-policy perspective, comparing an emissions trading system (ETS) and a carbon tax in revenue capacity, predictability, administrative feasibility, and distributional effects. Under the 2025 Climate Law, it reviews the emerging institutional and regulatory design for a national ETS and shows that existing fuel taxes already transmit an implicit carbon price signal. The analysis argues that an ETS can deliver greater certainty over total emissions, but its market-set allowance price may cause significant volatility in budget revenues over time. Moreover, earmarking receipts mainly for green-transition spending can limit revenue-recycling options and weaken distributional fairness. A carbon tax, while offering less certainty over emissions outcomes, provides a steadier revenue base and more scope for targeted compensation to households and firms. The paper therefore supports a hybrid pathway: a phased ETS for major emitters, complemented by carbon-based taxation in sectors outside the ETS.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Emission Trading System , Carbon Tax , Fiscal Policy , Türkiye

Kaynakça

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