Tek Kuşak Tek Yol Girişiminde Türkiye’nin Ticareti: Çekim Modeli Analizi

Yıl 2021, Sayı: 115, 119 - 134, 13.04.2021

Hacer Şaduman Okumuş Ümit Bozoklu , Sevcan Çağlayan

https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.786160

Cited By: 1

Öz

Büyümenin ve kalkınmanın temel belirleyicilerinden biri olan dış ticaretin sürdürülebilir olması tüm ekonomiler için önem arz etmektedir. Bu amaçla Çin’in öncülüğünde uygulanmaya başlanan Tek Kuşak Tek Yol (TKTY) girişimi ile ülkeler kara, demir ve deniz gibi ulaşım, enerji, telekomünikasyon ağları ve fiber sistemler ile birbirine bağlanmaktadır. Bu bağlamda çalışmanın amacı; girişimde, ekonomik kuşak üzerinde yer alan Türkiye’nin kuşak ülkeleri ile olan dış ticaret hacminin belirleyicilerini çekim modeli kullanarak ortaya koymaktadır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda 1990-2019 dönemini kapsayan 15 ülkenin yıllık verileri Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) yöntemi ile analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmanın sonucunda girişimin doğasındaki karmaşıklık, karşılaşabileceği riskler ve zorluklar değerlendirmeleri belirsizleştirmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

TKTY,, Çekim Modeli, PPML

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