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Tek Kuşak Tek Yol Girişiminde Türkiye’nin Ticareti: Çekim Modeli Analizi

Yıl 2021, Cilt , Sayı 115, 119 - 134, 13.04.2021
https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.786160

Öz

Büyümenin ve kalkınmanın temel belirleyicilerinden biri olan dış ticaretin sürdürülebilir olması tüm ekonomiler için önem arz etmektedir. Bu amaçla Çin’in öncülüğünde uygulanmaya başlanan Tek Kuşak Tek Yol (TKTY) girişimi ile ülkeler kara, demir ve deniz gibi ulaşım, enerji, telekomünikasyon ağları ve fiber sistemler ile birbirine bağlanmaktadır. Bu bağlamda çalışmanın amacı; girişimde, ekonomik kuşak üzerinde yer alan Türkiye’nin kuşak ülkeleri ile olan dış ticaret hacminin belirleyicilerini çekim modeli kullanarak ortaya koymaktadır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda 1990-2019 dönemini kapsayan 15 ülkenin yıllık verileri Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) yöntemi ile analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmanın sonucunda girişimin doğasındaki karmaşıklık, karşılaşabileceği riskler ve zorluklar değerlendirmeleri belirsizleştirmektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Anderson, J.E. (1979). “A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation”, The American Economic Review, 69(1), 106-116.
  • Anderson J. E. & Wincoop E. V. (2003). Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle. American Economic Review, 93 (1), 170-192.
  • Baniya, S., Rocha, N., & Ruta, M. (2019). Trade Effects of the New Silk Road: A Gravity Analysis, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No. WPS 8694.
  • Bastos, P. (2018). Exposure of Belt and Road Economies to China Trade Shocks. Policy Research Working Paper, No. 8503. Washington, DC: World Bank Group.
  • Bergstrand, J. (1985). The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence. Review of Economics and Statistics, 67(3), 474-481. Boffa, M. (2018). Trade Linkages Between the Belt and Road Economies. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 8423(May).
  • Chen, SA. (2018). ) The Development Of Cambodia–China Relation and Its Transition under the OBOR Initiative. The Chinese Economy, 51(4), 370-382, doi: 10.1080/10971475.2018.1457317
  • Chen, M. X., & Lin, C. (2018). Foreign Investment across the Belt and Road. Patterns, Determinants and Effects. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 8607.
  • Derudder, B., Liu, X., & Kunaka, C. (2018). Connectivity along Overland Corridors of the Belt and Road Initiative. World Bank MTI Global Practice Discussion Paper, 6(October),
  • Dimauro, F.(2001) : Economic Integration Between The EU And The Ceecs: A Sectoral Study, LICOS Discussion Paper, 105, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, LICOS Centre For Transition Economics, Leuven.
  • Du, J., Ve Zhang, Y., (2018). Does One Belt Road İnitiative Promote Chinese Overseas Direct İnvestment? China Economic Review, 47, 189-205.
  • Egger, P. (2000). A Note on the Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Equation. Economics Letters, 66(1), 25–31.
  • Enderwick, P. (2018). The economic growth and development effects of China’s One Belt, One Road Initiative. Strategic Change, 27(5), 447–454. doi.org/10.1002/jsc.2229
  • Foo, N., Lean, H., & Salim, R. (2019). The İmpact Of China’s One Belt One Road İnitiative On İnternational Trade İn The ASEAN Region. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance. In Press. doi.Org/10.1016/J.Najef.2019.101089
  • Helpman, E. (1987) “Imperfect Competition and International Trade: Evidence from Fourteen Industrial Countries. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 1, 62-81. Kohl, T., (2019). The Belt and Road Initiative’s Effect on Supply-Chain Trade: Evidence from Structral Gravity Equations. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society. 12(1), 77-104. doi.Org/10.1093/Cjres/Rsy036
  • Lall, S. V. & Lebrand, M. (2019) Who Wins, Who Loses? Understanding the Spatially Differentiated Effects of Belt and Road Initiative. Unpublished Working Paper, World Bank.
  • Li, L., Sun, Z., & Long, X.(2018). An Emprical Analysis Of Night-Time Light Data Based on The Gravity Model. Applied Economics. 51(8), 797-814. doi.Org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1523612
  • Linnemann, H. (1966). An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows, Northholland Publishing Company, Amsterdam.
  • Losos, E., Pfaff, A., Lydia, O., Mason, S.,& Morgan, S. (2019). Reducing Environmental Risks from Belt and Road Initiative Investments in Transportation Infrastructure. World Bank. doi:10. 1596/1813-9450-8718
  • Maliszewska, M., Mensbrugghe, D. (2019). “The Belt and Road Initiative: Economic, Poverty and Environmental Impacts.” Policy Research Working Paper WPS 8814. World Bank Group, Washington.
  • Maryla, M. & Mensbruggh, D. (2019). The Belt and Road Initiative Economic, Poverty and Environmental Impact. Policy Research Working Paper 8814.
  • Martínez-Zarzoso, I., Nowak-Lehmann, F.,& Vollmer, S. (2007) The Log of Gravity Revisited (in revision). CEGE discussion paper 64, University of Göttingen.
  • Piermartini, R., & Yotov, Y. V. (2016). Estimating Trade Policy Effects with Structural Gravity. No. ERSD-2016-10). WTO Staff Working Paper.
  • Pöyhönen, P. (1963). A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade Between Countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 90, 93-100.
  • Raiser, M., &Ruta, M. (2019). Managing the Risks of the Belt and Road. https://blogs.worldbank.org/eastasiapacific/managing-the-tisks-of-the-belt-and-road.
  • Ruta, M. (2018). Three Opportunities and Three Risks of the Belt and Road Initiative. https://blogs.worldbank.org/trade/three-opportunities-and-three-risks-belt-and-road-initiative.
  • Santos Silva, J., & Tenreyro, S. (2006). The Log Of Gravity. The Review Of Economics And Statistics, 88(4), 641-658.
  • Shen, S., & W. Chan, W.(2018). A Comparative Study of the Belt and Road Intiative and The Marshall Plan. Palgrave Communications, 4 (1), 1–11. doi:10.1057/s41599-018-0077-9
  • Soloaga, I., & Wintersb, L. A. (2001). Regionalism in the Nineties: What Effect On Trade? The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 12(1), 1–29.
  • Soyres, F., Mulabdic, A., Murray, S., Rocha, N., Ruta, M. (2018). How Much Will the Belt and Road Initiative Reduce Trade Costs? Policy Research Working Paper, No. WPS 8614., World Bank.
  • Soyres, F., Mulabdic, A., Ruta, M. (2019). Common Transport Infrastructure : A Quantitative Model and Estimates from The Belt and Road Initiative. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8801.
  • Saud, S., Chen, S., Haseeb, A., & Sumayya. S. (2020). The Role of Financial Development and Globalization in the Environment: Accounting Ecological Footprint Indicators for
  • Selected One-Belt-One-Road Initiative Countries. Journal Of Cleaner Production, 250, 119518. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.11951 8
  • Siliverstovs, B., & Schumacher, D. (2009). Estimating Gravity Equations: to Log or Not to Log? Emprical Economics, 36,645– 669.
  • Tekir, O., & Demir, N. (2018). Ekonomik ve Siyasal Bir Araç Olarak Yeni İpek Yolu Projesinin Küresel Sisteme Etkileri. Sosyoekonomi, 26(38), 191-206. doi: 10.17233
  • Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the World Economy: Suggestions for an International Economic Policy, USA: The Twentieth Century Fund.
  • Villafuerte, J., Corong, E., & Zhuang, J. (2016). The One Belt, One Road Initiative: Impact on Trade and Growth. Paper Presented at the 19th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Washington.
  • Yang, G., Huang, X., Huang, J., Ve Chen, H., (2020).Assesment of The Effects of Infrastructure Investment under the Belt and Road İnitiative. China Economic Review. 60, April 2020, 101418. doi.Org/10.1016/J.Chieco.2020.101418
  • Yotov, Y. V., Piermartini, R., Monteiro, J.-A. And Larch, M. (2016), An Advanced Guide to Trade Policy Analysis: The Structural Gravity Model, World Trade Organization Geneva. Westerlund, J., & Wilhelmsson, F. (2011) Estimating the Gravity Model without Gravity using Panel Data, Applied Economics, 43(6), 641-649. doi: 10.1080/00036840802599784
  • Wiederer, C. (2018). Logistics Infrastructure along the Belt and Road Initiative Economies, Macroeconomics, Trade & Investment MTI Practice Notes, no. 5, December, World Bank Group.
  • World Bank. (2019). Belt and Road Economics : Opportunities and Risks of Transport Corridors. Washington, DC: World Bank. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/31878 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.

Yıl 2021, Cilt , Sayı 115, 119 - 134, 13.04.2021
https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.786160

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Anderson, J.E. (1979). “A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation”, The American Economic Review, 69(1), 106-116.
  • Anderson J. E. & Wincoop E. V. (2003). Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle. American Economic Review, 93 (1), 170-192.
  • Baniya, S., Rocha, N., & Ruta, M. (2019). Trade Effects of the New Silk Road: A Gravity Analysis, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No. WPS 8694.
  • Bastos, P. (2018). Exposure of Belt and Road Economies to China Trade Shocks. Policy Research Working Paper, No. 8503. Washington, DC: World Bank Group.
  • Bergstrand, J. (1985). The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence. Review of Economics and Statistics, 67(3), 474-481. Boffa, M. (2018). Trade Linkages Between the Belt and Road Economies. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 8423(May).
  • Chen, SA. (2018). ) The Development Of Cambodia–China Relation and Its Transition under the OBOR Initiative. The Chinese Economy, 51(4), 370-382, doi: 10.1080/10971475.2018.1457317
  • Chen, M. X., & Lin, C. (2018). Foreign Investment across the Belt and Road. Patterns, Determinants and Effects. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 8607.
  • Derudder, B., Liu, X., & Kunaka, C. (2018). Connectivity along Overland Corridors of the Belt and Road Initiative. World Bank MTI Global Practice Discussion Paper, 6(October),
  • Dimauro, F.(2001) : Economic Integration Between The EU And The Ceecs: A Sectoral Study, LICOS Discussion Paper, 105, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, LICOS Centre For Transition Economics, Leuven.
  • Du, J., Ve Zhang, Y., (2018). Does One Belt Road İnitiative Promote Chinese Overseas Direct İnvestment? China Economic Review, 47, 189-205.
  • Egger, P. (2000). A Note on the Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Equation. Economics Letters, 66(1), 25–31.
  • Enderwick, P. (2018). The economic growth and development effects of China’s One Belt, One Road Initiative. Strategic Change, 27(5), 447–454. doi.org/10.1002/jsc.2229
  • Foo, N., Lean, H., & Salim, R. (2019). The İmpact Of China’s One Belt One Road İnitiative On İnternational Trade İn The ASEAN Region. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance. In Press. doi.Org/10.1016/J.Najef.2019.101089
  • Helpman, E. (1987) “Imperfect Competition and International Trade: Evidence from Fourteen Industrial Countries. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 1, 62-81. Kohl, T., (2019). The Belt and Road Initiative’s Effect on Supply-Chain Trade: Evidence from Structral Gravity Equations. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society. 12(1), 77-104. doi.Org/10.1093/Cjres/Rsy036
  • Lall, S. V. & Lebrand, M. (2019) Who Wins, Who Loses? Understanding the Spatially Differentiated Effects of Belt and Road Initiative. Unpublished Working Paper, World Bank.
  • Li, L., Sun, Z., & Long, X.(2018). An Emprical Analysis Of Night-Time Light Data Based on The Gravity Model. Applied Economics. 51(8), 797-814. doi.Org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1523612
  • Linnemann, H. (1966). An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows, Northholland Publishing Company, Amsterdam.
  • Losos, E., Pfaff, A., Lydia, O., Mason, S.,& Morgan, S. (2019). Reducing Environmental Risks from Belt and Road Initiative Investments in Transportation Infrastructure. World Bank. doi:10. 1596/1813-9450-8718
  • Maliszewska, M., Mensbrugghe, D. (2019). “The Belt and Road Initiative: Economic, Poverty and Environmental Impacts.” Policy Research Working Paper WPS 8814. World Bank Group, Washington.
  • Maryla, M. & Mensbruggh, D. (2019). The Belt and Road Initiative Economic, Poverty and Environmental Impact. Policy Research Working Paper 8814.
  • Martínez-Zarzoso, I., Nowak-Lehmann, F.,& Vollmer, S. (2007) The Log of Gravity Revisited (in revision). CEGE discussion paper 64, University of Göttingen.
  • Piermartini, R., & Yotov, Y. V. (2016). Estimating Trade Policy Effects with Structural Gravity. No. ERSD-2016-10). WTO Staff Working Paper.
  • Pöyhönen, P. (1963). A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade Between Countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 90, 93-100.
  • Raiser, M., &Ruta, M. (2019). Managing the Risks of the Belt and Road. https://blogs.worldbank.org/eastasiapacific/managing-the-tisks-of-the-belt-and-road.
  • Ruta, M. (2018). Three Opportunities and Three Risks of the Belt and Road Initiative. https://blogs.worldbank.org/trade/three-opportunities-and-three-risks-belt-and-road-initiative.
  • Santos Silva, J., & Tenreyro, S. (2006). The Log Of Gravity. The Review Of Economics And Statistics, 88(4), 641-658.
  • Shen, S., & W. Chan, W.(2018). A Comparative Study of the Belt and Road Intiative and The Marshall Plan. Palgrave Communications, 4 (1), 1–11. doi:10.1057/s41599-018-0077-9
  • Soloaga, I., & Wintersb, L. A. (2001). Regionalism in the Nineties: What Effect On Trade? The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 12(1), 1–29.
  • Soyres, F., Mulabdic, A., Murray, S., Rocha, N., Ruta, M. (2018). How Much Will the Belt and Road Initiative Reduce Trade Costs? Policy Research Working Paper, No. WPS 8614., World Bank.
  • Soyres, F., Mulabdic, A., Ruta, M. (2019). Common Transport Infrastructure : A Quantitative Model and Estimates from The Belt and Road Initiative. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8801.
  • Saud, S., Chen, S., Haseeb, A., & Sumayya. S. (2020). The Role of Financial Development and Globalization in the Environment: Accounting Ecological Footprint Indicators for
  • Selected One-Belt-One-Road Initiative Countries. Journal Of Cleaner Production, 250, 119518. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.11951 8
  • Siliverstovs, B., & Schumacher, D. (2009). Estimating Gravity Equations: to Log or Not to Log? Emprical Economics, 36,645– 669.
  • Tekir, O., & Demir, N. (2018). Ekonomik ve Siyasal Bir Araç Olarak Yeni İpek Yolu Projesinin Küresel Sisteme Etkileri. Sosyoekonomi, 26(38), 191-206. doi: 10.17233
  • Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the World Economy: Suggestions for an International Economic Policy, USA: The Twentieth Century Fund.
  • Villafuerte, J., Corong, E., & Zhuang, J. (2016). The One Belt, One Road Initiative: Impact on Trade and Growth. Paper Presented at the 19th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Washington.
  • Yang, G., Huang, X., Huang, J., Ve Chen, H., (2020).Assesment of The Effects of Infrastructure Investment under the Belt and Road İnitiative. China Economic Review. 60, April 2020, 101418. doi.Org/10.1016/J.Chieco.2020.101418
  • Yotov, Y. V., Piermartini, R., Monteiro, J.-A. And Larch, M. (2016), An Advanced Guide to Trade Policy Analysis: The Structural Gravity Model, World Trade Organization Geneva. Westerlund, J., & Wilhelmsson, F. (2011) Estimating the Gravity Model without Gravity using Panel Data, Applied Economics, 43(6), 641-649. doi: 10.1080/00036840802599784
  • Wiederer, C. (2018). Logistics Infrastructure along the Belt and Road Initiative Economies, Macroeconomics, Trade & Investment MTI Practice Notes, no. 5, December, World Bank Group.
  • World Bank. (2019). Belt and Road Economics : Opportunities and Risks of Transport Corridors. Washington, DC: World Bank. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/31878 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Sosyal
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Hacer Şaduman OKUMUŞ Bu kişi benim
İSTANBUL GEDİK ÜNİVERSİTESİ
0000-0002-4435-3831
Türkiye


Ümit BOZOKLU (Sorumlu Yazar)
İSTANBUL GEDİK ÜNİVERSİTESİ
0000-0001-5262-6265
Türkiye


Sevcan ÇAĞLAYAN Bu kişi benim
İSTANBUL GEDİK ÜNİVERSİTESİ
0000-0001-6256-7035
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi 13 Nisan 2021
Başvuru Tarihi 27 Ağustos 2020
Kabul Tarihi 14 Nisan 2021
Yayınlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021, Cilt , Sayı 115

Kaynak Göster

APA Okumuş, H. Ş. , Bozoklu, Ü. & Çağlayan, S. (2021). Tek Kuşak Tek Yol Girişiminde Türkiye’nin Ticareti: Çekim Modeli Analizi . Maliye ve Finans Yazıları , (115) , 119-134 . DOI: 10.33203/mfy.786160

Dergi özellikle maliye, finans ve bankacılık alanlarında faaliyet göstermektedir.