Ekonomik Büyüme ve Çevre Kalitesi Paradoksunda Karbon Vergisinin Rolü: ARDL Yaklaşımı İle Finlandiya Üzerine Bir Uygulama

Yıl 2025, Sayı: 124, 371 - 393, 01.10.2025

Caner Dilber

Öz

Küresel ısınma ve iklim krizi, çevre kalitesi ile ilgili önlemlerin arttırılmasını zorunlu hale getirmiştir. Ekonomik büyüme için gerekli enerji tüketimi arttıkça çevreye verdiği zarar da telafi edilemeyecek boyutlara ulaşabilmektedir. İklim değişikliği ve karbondioksit (CO2) emisyonunun azaltılması ile ilgili uygulanabilecek en etkin politikalardan biri de karbon vergisidir. Bu çalışmada, Finlandiya'da uygulanan karbon vergisinin CO2 emisyonları üzerindeki etkisi Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi çerçevesinde incelenmiştir. Analizler için 1991-2022 yılları arasındaki veriler düzenlenerek Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikmeli Model (ARDL) yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın bulguları, karbon vergisi uygulamasının kısa dönemde sağlam olmasa da, uzun dönemde CO2 emisyonlarını azaltmada oldukça etkili olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomik Büyüme , Çevre Kalitesi , Karbon Vergisi , CO2 Emisyonları

The Role of Carbon Tax in the Paradox of Environmental Quality and Economic Growth: An Application on Finland With the ARDL Approach

Öz

Global warming and climate crisis have made it necessary to increase measures regarding environmental quality. As the energy consumption required for economic growth increases, the damage to the environment may reach irreversible levels. In the broader discourse on climate change and the reduction of CO2 emissions, the policy of carbon taxation has proven to be highly effective. In the present study, the impact of the carbon tax on CO2 emissions in Finland is analyzed within the framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve. For the analysis, the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged Model (ARDL) model was used by adjusting the data between 1991-2022. The results of the study show that carbon tax implementation, although not robust in the short run, is highly effective in reducing CO2 emissions in the long run.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic Growth , Environmental Quality , Carbon Tax , CO2 Emissions.

Kaynakça

• Al Mamun, T. G., Hassan, M. S., Amin, M. B. & Oláh, J. (2025). Has the Paris Agreement Shaped Emission Trends? A Panel VECM Analysis of Energy, Growth, and CO2 in 106 Middle-Income Countries. arXiv.preprint, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2503.14946.
• Altın, H. (2024). The impact of energy efficiency and renewable energy consumption on carbon emissions in G7 countries. International Journal of Sustainable Engineering, 17(1), 134-142. https://doi.org/10.1080/19397038.2024.2319648
• Andersson, J. J. (2019). Carbon taxes and CO2 emissions: Sweden as a case study. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 11(4), 1-30. https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20170144.
• Becker, R., Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2006). A stationarity test in the presence of an unknown number of smooth breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), 381-409. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9892.2006.00478.x.
• Bennaceur, M. Y., Abid, M., ElShaabany, M. M., Taha, T. K., & Reda, Z. (2025). How does ICT diffusion and renewable energy consumption affect CO₂ emissions?. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 15(1), 131-142. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.17617.
• Best, R., Burke, P. J. & Jotzo, F. (2020). Carbon pricing efficacy: Cross-country evidence. Environmental and Resource Economics, 77(1), 69-94. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-020-00436-x.
• Bouznit, M. & Pablo-Romero, M. D. (2016). CO₂ emission and economic growth in Algeria. Energy Policy, 96, 93–104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.05.036.
• Bölük, G., & Mert, M. (2015). The renewable energy, growth and environmental Kuznets curve in Turkey: an ARDL approach. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 52, 587-595. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.07.138.
• Chowdhury, A. A. A., Rafi, A. H., Sultana, A. & Noman, A. A. (2024). Enhancing green economy with artificial intelligence: Role of energy use and FDI in the United States. Journal of Environmental and Energy Economics, 3 (2), 55-76. https://doi.org/10.56946/jeee.v3i2.536.
• Davis, L. W. & Kilian, L. (2011). Estimating the effect of a gasoline tax on carbon emissions. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 26(7), 1187-1214. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.1156.
• Direction générale du Trésor. (2024). Carbon pricing in Nordic countries. https://www.tresor.economie.gouv.fr/Articles/be819667-5da9-4563-8fe0-bcdf7db1e038/files/c9f7ad0a-aa03-404c-bc9f-d0e8b4e5becc.
• Dogan, E. & Seker, F. (2016). Determinants of CO2 emissions in the European Union: the role of renewable and non-renewable energy. Renewable Energy, 94, 429-439. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2016.03.078.
• Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2012). The flexible Fourier form and Dickey–Fuller type unit root tests. Economics Letters, 117(1), 196-199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.081.
• Enders, W. (2015). Applied econometric time series (4th Edition). New York (US): University of Alabama, 30.
• Feng, S., Shafiei, M. W. M., Ng, T. F., Ren, J., & Jiang, Y. (2024). The intersection of economic growth and environmental sustainability in China: Pathways to achieving SDG. Energy Strategy Reviews, 55, 101530. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2024.101530
• Fu, M., Ban, K., Jin, L., & Wu, D. (2024). Balancing economic growth, carbon emissions, and sequestration: A multi-objective spatial optimization in Zhengzhou metropolitan area in China. Land, 13(9), 1526. https://doi.org/10.3390/land13091526
• Green, J. F. (2021). Does carbon pricing reduce emissions? A review of ex-post analyses. Environmental Research Letters, 16(4). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abdae9.
• Grossman, G. M. & Krueger, A. B. (1995). Economic growth and the environment. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110 (2), 353–377. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118443.
• IEA (2024). Implementation of bioenergy in Finland – 2024 update. https://www.ieabioenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/CountryReport2024_Finland_final.pdf
• IEA (2025). Global Energy Review. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2025/co2-emissions
• Ito, K. (2017). CO2 emissions, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, and economic growth: Evidence from panel data for developing countries. International Economics, 151, 1-6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2017.02.001.
• Jie, W. & Rabnawaz, K. (2024). Renewable energy and CO2 emissions in developing and developed nations: A panel estimate approach. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 12. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2024.1405001.
• Khastar, M., Aslani, A., Nejati, M., Bekhrad, K. & Naaranoja, M. (2020). Evaluation of the carbon tax effects on the structure of Finnish industries: A computable general equilibrium analysis. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments, 42, 100873. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seta.2019.100611.
• Kohlscheen, E., Moessner, R. & Takats, E. (2024). Effects of carbon pricing and other climate policies on CO2 emissions. arXiv preprint. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2402.03800
• Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C., Schmidt, P. & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?. Journal of Econometrics, 54(1-3), 159–178. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-Y.
• Lešáková, P. & Dobeš, O. Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions in the Czech Republic. International Business Information Management Association-IBIMA, 2019-05-22T07:59:55Z. Dostupné takéz: https://hdl.handle.net/10195/72460.
• Li, F., Chang, T., Wang, M. C. & Zhou, J. (2022). The relationship between health expenditure, CO 2 emissions, and economic growth in the BRICS countries—based on the Fourier ARDL model. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17900-w.
• Lin, B., & Li, X. (2011). The effect of carbon tax on per capita CO₂ emissions. Energy Policy, 39(9), 5137–5146. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.05.050.
• Luo, R. (2013). Finland’s carbon tax system. University of British Columbia. https://blogs.ubc.ca/rosonluo/2013/02/07/finlands-carbon-tax-system.
• Magazzino, C. (2015). Economic growth, CO2 emissions and energy use in Israel. International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 22(1), 89-97. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504509.2014.991365.
• Martinsson, G., Sajtos, L., Strömberg, P. & Thomann, C. (2024). The effect of carbon pricing on firm emissions: Evidence from the Swedish CO2 tax. The Review of Financial Studies, 37(6), 1848-1886. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhad097.
• Metcalf, G. E. & Stock, J. H. (2023). The macroeconomic impact of Europe’s carbon taxes. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 12(1), 62–91. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20210052.
• Mitić, P., Fedajev, A. & Radulescu, M. (2023). The relationship between CO₂ emissions, economic growth, available energy, and employment in SEE countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(35), 52813–52830. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23356-3
• OECD. (2023). Effective Carbon Rates 2023: Pricing Greenhouse Gas Emissions through Taxes and Emissions Trading. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/b84d5b36-en.
• OECD. (2024). Key findings for carbon pricing in Finland. https://www.oecd.org/tax/tax-policy/carbon-pricing-finland.pdf.
• Onofrei, M., Vatamanu, A. F. & Cigu, E. (2022). The relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions in EU countries: A cointegration analysis. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10, https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.934885.
• Paukku, E. (2023). Carbon pricing in Finland: Balancing policy goals. Nordic Tax Journal, 1, 76–95. https://doi.org/10.2478/ntaxj-2023-0006.
• Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616.
• Pretis, F. (2022). Does a carbon tax reduce CO2 emissions? Evidence from British Columbia. Environmental and Resource Economics, 83(1), 115-144. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-022-00679-w.
• Rafaty, R., Dolphin, G. & Pretis, F. (2025). Carbon pricing and the elasticity of CO2 emissions. Energy Economics, 144, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108298
• Seri, C. & Fernandez, A. (2021). The relationship between economic growth and environment: Testing the EKC hypothesis for Latin American countries. [Preprint]. arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2105.11405.
• Shafiei, S. & Salim, R. A. (2014). Non-renewable and renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions in OECD countries: a comparative analysis. Energy policy, 66, 547-556. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.10.064.
• Szetela, B., Majewska, A., Jamroz, P., Djalilov, B. & Salahodjaev, R. (2022). Renewable energy and CO2 emissions in top natural resource rents depending countries: the role of governance. Frontiers in Energy Research, 10. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2022.872941.
• Teklie, D. K. & Yağmur, M. H. (2024). Effect of economic growth on CO2 emission in Africa: do financial development and globalization matter?. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 14(1), 121-140. http://hdl.handle.net/11159/653295.
• UNFCCC. (1994). Finland: First National Communication under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/finnc1.pdf.
• Wang, Y., Zhang, X. & Zhang, Y. (2022). Energy use greenization, carbon dioxide emissions, and economic growth: Evidence from China. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10, https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.871001.
• Xuan, V. N. (2025). Toward a sustainable future: Determinants of renewable energy utilisation in Canada. Energy Reports, 13, 1308-1320. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2025.01.014
• Yang, Z., Zhang, M., Liu, L. & Zhou, D. (2022). Can renewable energy investment reduce carbon dioxide emissions? Evidence from scale and structure. Energy Economics, 112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106181.
• Yousefi-Sahzabi, A., Sasaki, K., Yousefi, H. & Sugai, Y. (2011). CO2 emission and economic growth of Iran. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 16, 63-82.