TÜRKİYE’DE ÇEVRESEL KUZNETS EĞRİSİNİN CO2 EMİSYONU İÇİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: YUMUŞAK GEÇİŞ REGRESYON YAKLAŞIMINDAN YENİ KANITLAR

Öz

Bu çalışma, Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi (ÇKE) hipotezinin Türkiye için ne kadar geçerli ve uygulanabilir olabildiğini incelemektedir. ÇKE’nin geçerliliği  1971-2014 dönemi için kişi başına karbondioksit (CO₂) emisyonu ve kişi başına GSYİH veri seti kullanılarak yumuşak geçiş regresyon modeli ile test edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, çevresel kirliliğin kalkınmanın ilk evrelerinde ekonomik büyümeyle birlikte yükselme eğiliminde olduğunu göstermektedir. Gelir, belirli bir eşik seviyesini (8,022 $) aştıktan sonra ise kirlilik artış oranı yavaşlamakta ancak daha fazla büyüme ile birlikte düşüş göstermemektedir. Tahmin sonuçları, belirli bir gelir düzeyinden itibaren çevresel koşullarda iyileşmelerin gözlenebileceğini ifade eden EKC hipotezinin varlığını destekleyecek kanıtlar sunmamaktadır. Bu çalışma, gelir düzeyi ile çevresel kirlilik arasındaki ilişkinin birçok faktöre bağlı olduğunu ve bu nedenle ekonomik büyümenin tek başına çevre sorunlarını çözemediğini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu araştırma bulguları, hem politika yapıcılar ve araştırmacılara çevresel kirliliği gidermek için bir rehber olarak hem de uzun vadede Türkiye'nin sürdürülebilir büyümesini sağlamak için bir politika önerisi olarak yararlı olabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Doğrusal Olmama,CO2 Emisyonu,Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi

THE VALIDITY OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE HYPOTHESIS FOR CO2 EMISSIONS IN TURKEY: NEW EVIDENCE FROM SMOOTH TRANSITION REGRESSION APPROACH

Öz

This study examines to what extent the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis may be valid and applicable for Turkey. In the present paper, we employ a smooth transition regression (STR) model to test validity of the EKC hypothesis, using a dataset of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission per capita and GDP per capita over the period of 1971–2014. The environmental pollution tends to rise with economic growth in the early stages of development. After exceeding a turning point of income ($8,022), it smoothly slows down but does not decline with further growth. Estimation results provide no evidence to support  the presence of the EKC hypothesis, which implies that after passing a certain point, economic growth may actually be profitable for environmental quality. This study reveals that the relationship between income level and environmental pollution depends on many factors, and therefore economic growth singly cannot solve environmental problems. This research finding may be useful as a guide for policy makers and researchers to resolve environmental pollution and as a policy recommendation to ensure sustainable growth of Turkey in the long run.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Nonlinearity,CO2 Emissions,Environmental Kuznets Curve

Kaynakça

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