THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 CORONAVIRUS ON STOCK MARKETS: EVIDENCE FROM SELECTED COUNTRIES

Öz

In this paper, it has been aimed to reveal the possible effects of Covid-19 Coronavirus epidemic on stock markets. In the analysis using daily data between 23 January 2020 and 13 March 2020, possible effects on stock markets has been investigated with Maki (2012) cointegration test using both Covid-19 daily total death and Covid-19 daily total case. According to the results obtained, all stock markets examined with total death act together in the long run. It has been understood that total cases have cointegration relationship of SSE, KOSPI and IBEX35 and do not have cointegration relationship with FTSE MIB, CAC40, DAX30. In this regard, it is considered as one of the optimal option for investors to avoid investments in stock markets, turn to investment in gold markets, which is the safe investment port of each crisis period in long run. Also, considering the possibility of turning all life into an internet environment, turning to cryptocurrencies is seen as another alternative option for investors. In this direction, it will be the preference of investors to turn to derivative markets and to the stock markets of countries where Covid-19 is relatively rare to avoid risk.   

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Covid-19 Coronavirus,Stock Markets,Epidemic,Death,Case

COVID-19 CORONAVİRÜSÜN HİSSE SENEDİ PİYASALARINA ETKİSİ: SEÇİLMİŞ ÜLKELERDEN KANITLAR

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Covid-19 Coronavirüs salgınının borsalar üzerindeki olası etkilerini ortaya koymak amaçlanmıştır. 23 Ocak 2020 ve 13 Mart 2020 arasındaki günlük veriler kullanılarak yapılan analizlerde, hem Covid-19 günlük toplam ölüm hem de Covid-19 günlük toplam vaka sayılarının, Maki (2012) eşbütünleşme testi kullanılarak borsalar üzerindeki olası etkileri araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, toplam ölümle incelenen tüm borsalar uzun vadede birlikte hareket etmektedir. Toplam vakaların SSE, KOSPI ve IBEX35 ile eşbütünleşme ilişkisi içerisinde olduğu ve bu vakaların FTSE MIB, CAC40, DAX30 ile eşbütünleşik olmadığı anlaşılmıştır. Bu bağlamda, yatırımcıların borsa yatırımlarından kaçınmaları, her kriz döneminin güvenli limanı olan altın piyasalarına yönelmeleri uzun vadede en uygun seçeneklerden biri olarak görülmektedir. Ayrıca, tüm hayatın bir internet ortamına dönüşme olasılığı göz önüne alındığında, sanal para birimlerine yönelmek yatırımcılar için bir başka alternatif seçenek olarak görülmektedir. Yine bu doğrultuda riskten kaçınmak için yatırımcıların türev piyasalara ve Covid-19'un nispeten nadir görüldüğü ülkelerin hisse senedi piyasalarına yönelmesi önerilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kovid-19 Koronavirüs,Borsa,Salgın,Ölüm,Vaka

Kaynakça

1. Armien, B., Suaya, J. A., Quiroz, E., Sah, B. K., Bayard, V., Marchena, L. Campos, C. and Shepard, D. S. (2008). Clinical Characteristics and National Economic Cost of the 2005 Dengue Epidemic in Panama, Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg., 79(3), 2008, 364–371
2. Ayittey, F. K., Ayittey, M. K., Chiwero, N. B. Kamasah, J. S. and Dzuvor, C. (2020). Economic Impacts of Wuhan 2019‐nCoV on China and the World, Journal of Medical Wirology, 1-3. 10.1002/jmv.25706
3. Barnetta, T., Whitesideb, A., Khodakevichc, L. Kruglovd, Y. and Steshenko, V. (2000). The HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Ukraine: Its Potential Social and Economic Impact, Social Science & Medicine, 51, 1387-1403
4. Beutels, P., Jia, N. Zhou, Q., Smith, R., Cao, W. and Vlas, S. J. (2009). The Economic Impact of SARS in Beijing, China, Tropical Medicine and International Health, 14, 1, 85–91
5. Bloom, D. E. and Mahal, A. S. (1997). Does the AIDS Epidemic Threaten Economic Growth?, Journal of Econometrics, 77, 105-124 Carpenter, T. E. O’Brien, J. M. Hagerman, A. D. and McCarl, B. A. (2011). Epidemic and economic impacts of delayed detection of foot-and-mouth disease: a case study of a simulated outbreak in California, J Vet Diagn Invest, 23:26–33.
6. Carrion-i-Sylvestre J. L., Kim, D. and Perron P. (2009). GLS-Based Unit Root Tests with Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both the Null and the Alternative Hypotheses. Econometric Theory, 25, 1754-1792.
7. Chen, M. H., Jang, S. C. and Kim, W. G. (2007). The Impact of the SARS Outbreak on Taiwanese Hotel Stock Performance: An Event-Study Approach, Hospitality Management, 26, 200–212
8. Çoban, B. Firuzan, E. and Oğuzhan, A. (2018). Farklı Varyanslık ve Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Ekonomik Büyüme ile Turizm İlişkisinin İncelenmesi, Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Haziran, 20, 1, 319-337.

9. Dursun, G. (2018). İşsizlik Histerisi İstihdam Histerisine Eşit Mi? Lm ve Yapısal Kırılmalı Rals-Lm Birim Kök Testlerinden Kanıtlar, Current Debates in Economics, Current Debates, No. 18.
10. Estrada, M. A. R., Park, D., Koutronas, E., Khan, A. and Tahir, M. (2020). The Impact of Massive Infectious and Contagious Diseases and Its Impact on the Economic Performance: The Case of Wuhan, China, Social Science Research Network Report.
11. Gregory A. W. and Hansen B. E. (1996). Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts. Journal of Economomics, 70, 99-126
12. Gujarati, D. (2011). Temel Ekonometri, Çeviren: Ümit Şenesen, Gülay Günlük Şenesen, Literatür Yayıncılık.
13. Guptaa, A. G., Moyera, C. A. and Stern, D. T. (2005). The Economic Impact of Quarantine: SARS in Toronto as a Case Study, Journal of Infection, 50, 386–393
14. Halasa, Y. A., Shepard, D. S. and Zeng, W. (2012). Economic Cost of Dengue in Puerto Rico, Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg., 86 (5), 745–752
15. Hatemi-J, A. N. (2008). Tests for Cointegration with Two Unknown Regime Shifts with an Application to Financial market Integration, Empirical Economics, 35, 497-505.
16. Lee, J. and Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum LM Unit Root test with Two Structural Breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85, 1082–1089. doi:10.1162/003465303772815961
17. Lee, J., Strazicich, M. C., and Meng, M. (2012). Two-step LM Unit Root Tests with Trend-Breaks. Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, 1, 81–107.
18. Luo, S. and Tsang, K. P. (2020). How Much of China and World GDP Has The Coronavirus Reduced?, Social Science Research Network Report.
19. Maki D. (2012) Tests for Cointegration Allowing for an Unknown Number of Breaks, Economic Modelling, 29, 2011-2015
20. Meng, M. K. Im, J. Lee and Tieslau, M. (2014). More Powerful LM Unit Root Tests with Non-Normal Errors. The Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt, edited by R. Sickles and W. Horrace, 343–357, Berlin, Germany: Springer Publishing Co.
21. Meng, M., Lee, J. and Payne, J. E. (2016). RALS-LM Unit Root Test with Trend Breaks and Non-Normal Errors: Application to the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis. In B. Mizrach (ed.), Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 21(1), 31-45
22. Özcan, B. and Erdogan, S. (2015). Are Turkey's Tourism Markets Converging? Evidence from the Two-Step LM and three-step RALS-LM unit root tests, Current Issues in Tourism, 10.1080/13683500.2015.1040741
23. Vijayakumar, K., George, B. Anish, T. S. Rajasi, R. S., Teena, M. J. and Sujina, C. M. (2013). Economic Impact of Chikungunya Epidemic: Out-Of-Pocket Health Expenditures During The 2007 Outbreak In Kerala, India, Southeast Asian J Trop Med Public Health, 44, 1, 54-61 ang, P. C., Chu, R. M., Chung, W. B. and Sung, H. T. (1999). Costs of the 1997 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemic in Taiwan, Veterinary Record, 145, 731-734
24. Yang, H. Y. and Chen K. H. (2009). A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Economic Impact of a Tourism Crisis: a Case Study of the SARS Epidemic in Taiwan, Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events, 1:1, 37-60, 10.1080/19407960902738313
25. Yılancı, V. (2013). 1-5 Haziran 2013 Tarihlerinde Sakarya Üniversitesi’nde Verilen Finansal Ekonometri Eğitimi.
26. Zivot, Eric and Andrews, D. W. K. (1992). Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock and the Unit-Root Hypothesis, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10 (3), 251-270.