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## entrCOMPARISON OF ATA METHOD AND CROSTON BASED METHODS ON FORECASTING OF INTERMITTENT DEMANDKESİKLİ TALEPLERİN TAHMİNLENMESİNDE ATA METOT VE CROSTON TEMELLİ METOTLARIN KARŞILAŞTIRILMASI

#### Tugce EKİZ YİLMAZ [1] , Güçkan YAPAR [2] , İdil YAVUZ [3]

Intermittent demand forecasting is crucial for firms and commercial activities. Recently, many researchers have focused on forecasting methods for intermittent demand and proposed various forecasting techniques. The most prominent methods among these proposed techniques are the Croston method, which is based on exponential smoothing, and its two popular variations: SBA (Syntetos-Boylan Approximation), SBJ (Shale-Boylan-Johnston Approximation). Croston method is widely used in forecasting of intermittent demand and inventory (stock) control. Since these demands usually include zero values, using the ground breaking method developed by Croston in this data becomes inevitable. Nevertheless, there are some shortcomings to this method such as producing biased forecasts and for this reason its variations have been proposed. ATA method is a recently developed forecasting method which is an alternative to exponential smoothing. In this paper we propose a modification of ATA method that can be used for forecasting of intermittent demand. We will compare the results of the proposed approach to those of Croston and other forecasting methods used for intermittent demand forecasting.

Kesikli talep tahmini, şirketler ve ticari faaliyetler için çok önemlidir. Son zamanlarda, birçok araştırmacı kesikli talep için tahmin yöntemlerine odaklandı ve çeşitli tahmin teknikleri önerdiler. Bu önerilen teknikler arasında öne çıkan yöntemler, üssel düzleştirmeye dayanan Croston yöntemi ve bu yöntemin iki türevi olan SBA (Syntetos-Boylan Yaklaşımı) ve SBJ (Shale-Boylan-Johnston Yaklaşımı) metotlarıdır.e Croston yöntemi, kesikli talep ve envanter (stok) kontrolünün tahmininde yaygın olarak kullanılmaktadır. Bu talepler genellikle sıfır değerini içerdiğinden, bu verilerde Croston tarafından geliştirilen öne çıkan metodun kullanılması kaçınılmaz hale gelir. Bununla birlikte; bu yöntemin, yanlı tahminler üretmek gibi bazı eksiklikleri vardır ve bu sebeple türevleri önerilmiştir. ATA metot, üssel düzleştirmeye alternatif olarak yeni geliştirilen bir tahmin metodudur. Bu çalışmada, kesikli talebin tahmin edilmesi için bir ATA yönteminin bir modifikasyonunu öneriyoruz. Önerilen yaklaşımın sonuçlarını, Croston ve kesikli talep tahmini için kullanılan diğer tahmin yöntemleriyle karşılaştıracağız.

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Birincil Dil en Mühendislik Makaleler Orcid: 0000-0001-5417-1786Yazar: Tugce EKİZ YİLMAZ (Sorumlu Yazar)Kurum: Dokuz Eylül ÜniversitesiÜlke: Turkey Orcid: 0000-0002-0971-6676Yazar: Güçkan YAPAR Kurum: DOKUZ EYLUL UNIVERSITYÜlke: Turkey Orcid: 0000-0003-2163-1066Yazar: İdil YAVUZ Kurum: DOKUZ EYLÜL ÜNİVERSİTESİ, FEN FAKÜLTESİÜlke: Turkey Yayımlanma Tarihi : 11 Aralık 2019
 Bibtex @araştırma makalesi { muglajsci572444, journal = {Mugla Journal of Science and Technology}, issn = {2149-3596}, address = {}, publisher = {Mugla Sitki Kocman University}, year = {2019}, volume = {5}, pages = {49 - 55}, doi = {10.22531/muglajsci.572444}, title = {COMPARISON OF ATA METHOD AND CROSTON BASED METHODS ON FORECASTING OF INTERMITTENT DEMAND}, key = {cite}, author = {EKİZ YİLMAZ, Tugce and YAPAR, Güçkan and YAVUZ, İdil} } APA EKİZ YİLMAZ, T , YAPAR, G , YAVUZ, İ . (2019). COMPARISON OF ATA METHOD AND CROSTON BASED METHODS ON FORECASTING OF INTERMITTENT DEMAND. Mugla Journal of Science and Technology , 5 (2) , 49-55 . DOI: 10.22531/muglajsci.572444 MLA EKİZ YİLMAZ, T , YAPAR, G , YAVUZ, İ . "COMPARISON OF ATA METHOD AND CROSTON BASED METHODS ON FORECASTING OF INTERMITTENT DEMAND". Mugla Journal of Science and Technology 5 (2019 ): 49-55 Chicago EKİZ YİLMAZ, T , YAPAR, G , YAVUZ, İ . "COMPARISON OF ATA METHOD AND CROSTON BASED METHODS ON FORECASTING OF INTERMITTENT DEMAND". Mugla Journal of Science and Technology 5 (2019 ): 49-55 RIS TY - JOUR T1 - COMPARISON OF ATA METHOD AND CROSTON BASED METHODS ON FORECASTING OF INTERMITTENT DEMAND AU - Tugce EKİZ YİLMAZ , Güçkan YAPAR , İdil YAVUZ Y1 - 2019 PY - 2019 N1 - doi: 10.22531/muglajsci.572444 DO - 10.22531/muglajsci.572444 T2 - Mugla Journal of Science and Technology JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 49 EP - 55 VL - 5 IS - 2 SN - 2149-3596- M3 - doi: 10.22531/muglajsci.572444 UR - https://doi.org/10.22531/muglajsci.572444 Y2 - 2019 ER - EndNote %0 Mugla Journal of Science and Technology COMPARISON OF ATA METHOD AND CROSTON BASED METHODS ON FORECASTING OF INTERMITTENT DEMAND %A Tugce EKİZ YİLMAZ , Güçkan YAPAR , İdil YAVUZ %T COMPARISON OF ATA METHOD AND CROSTON BASED METHODS ON FORECASTING OF INTERMITTENT DEMAND %D 2019 %J Mugla Journal of Science and Technology %P 2149-3596- %V 5 %N 2 %R doi: 10.22531/muglajsci.572444 %U 10.22531/muglajsci.572444 ISNAD EKİZ YİLMAZ, Tugce , YAPAR, Güçkan , YAVUZ, İdil . "COMPARISON OF ATA METHOD AND CROSTON BASED METHODS ON FORECASTING OF INTERMITTENT DEMAND". Mugla Journal of Science and Technology 5 / 2 (Aralık 2019): 49-55 . https://doi.org/10.22531/muglajsci.572444 AMA EKİZ YİLMAZ T , YAPAR G , YAVUZ İ . COMPARISON OF ATA METHOD AND CROSTON BASED METHODS ON FORECASTING OF INTERMITTENT DEMAND. Mugla Journal of Science and Technology. 2019; 5(2): 49-55. Vancouver EKİZ YİLMAZ T , YAPAR G , YAVUZ İ . COMPARISON OF ATA METHOD AND CROSTON BASED METHODS ON FORECASTING OF INTERMITTENT DEMAND. Mugla Journal of Science and Technology. 2019; 5(2): 55-49.

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