GELİŞMİŞ ÜLKELERDE JEOPOLİTİK RİSKLER VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜMENİN TURİZM ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİNİN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ

Yıl 2024, , 185 - 199, 30.12.2024

Yunus Savaş

https://doi.org/10.59113/niibfd.1520450

Öz

Turizmin ve belirleyicilerinin incelenmesi, araştırmalar içinde köklü bir alan teşkil etmektedir. Ancak son yıllarda, turizmin önemli bir belirleyicisi olarak jeopolitik risklerin önemi dikkat çekmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Kao ve Westerlund koentegrasyon testi, panel otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikme (ARDL) modeli ve Dumitrescu Hurlin (2012) panel nedensellik testlerini içeren kapsamlı bir analitik çerçeve kullanılmaktadır. Analiz, jeopolitik risklerin ve ekonomik büyümenin gelişmiş ülkelerdeki turizm gelirleri üzerindeki etkisini 1996'dan 2018'e kadar olan dönemi kapsayacak şekilde ayırt etmeye odaklanmaktadır. Kao ve Westerlund eş-bütünleşme testlerinin uygulanması, incelenen değişkenler arasında eş-bütünleşme olduğuna dair kanıtlar ortaya koymaktadır. ARDL modeli sonuçları, jeopolitik risklerin ve ekonomik büyümenin turizm gelirlerinin uzun vadeli temel belirleyicileri olduğunu göstermektedir: jeopolitik riskteki %1'lik bir artış gelirleri yaklaşık %0,13 oranında artırırken, GSYH'deki %1'lik bir artış gelirleri %3,23 oranında artırmaktadır. Bu durum, turizm gelirleri üzerindeki etkilerinin uzun bir zamansal ufukta süreklilik arz ettiğinin altını çizmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Panel Veri, Ekonomik Büyüme, Turizm, Jeopolitik Riskler

ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL RISKS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH ON TOURISM IN ADVANCED COUNTRIES

Öz

The exploration of tourism and its determinants constitutes a well-established domain within research. However, in recent years, the significance of geopolitical risks as a crucial determinant of tourism has gained increasing attention. This study employs a comprehensive analytical framework, incorporating the Kao and Westerlund co-integration test, the panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and Dumitrescu Hurlin (2012) panel causality tests. The analysis focuses on discerning the impact of geopolitical risks and economic growth on tourism receipts across advanced countries, spanning the period from 1996 to 2018. The application of Kao and Westerlund co-integration tests reveals evidence of co-integration among the examined variables. The ARDL model results indicate that geopolitical risks and economic growth are key long-term drivers of tourism receipts: a 1% increase in geopolitical risk raises receipts by about 0.13%, while a 1% GDP increase boosts them by 3.23%. These findings highlight the sustained nature of their influence on tourism receipts over an extended temporal horizon.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Panel Data, Economic Growth, Tourism, Geopolitical Risks

Kaynakça

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