Market Awareness Of The "Dunning Kruger Effect" Theory

Abstract

The Dunning Kruger Effect, which states that individuals with little or no knowledge about a subject have more self-confidence than experts, was first put forward as a result of a social experiment in 1999. Over time, the concept has become a theory that has been accepted in the literature and has been the subject of studies in some branches of science and has been translated into Turkish as Cahil Cesareti. In this direction, the aim of the study is to analyze the Google search frequencies of the words "Dunning Kruger Effect" and "Ignorant Courage" and to determine the level of awareness of the concepts in the USA and Turkey comparatively. As a result of the Google Trends data and literature review, it has been determined that the Dunning Kruger Effect theory is known in the USA both in the general category and in the finance category. In Turkey, it has been seen that the related concept is known in the general category and has been the subject of some studies. In addition, it was stated that the related concept does not have financial awareness, as a result of both Google Trends data and literature search. In this direction, the study adds originality to the national literature at the stage of determining the level of awareness of the Dunning Kruger Effect theory, whose Turkish equivalent is Ignorant Courage, in the finance literature.

Keywords

• Dunning Kruger Effect
• Ignorant Courage
• Google Trends
• Behavioral Finance
• Cognitive Bias

''Dunning Kruger Effect'' Teorisinin Piyasa Bilinirliği

Öz

Herhangi bir konu hakkında bilgisi az veya uzman olmayan bireylerin uzman olanlara göre daha fazla özgüvene sahip olduğunu ifade eden Dunning Kruger Effect, ilk olarak 1999 yılında yapılan bir sosyal deney sonucunda ortaya atılmıştır. Kavram zamanla literatürde kabul gören ve bazı bilim dallarında çalışmalara konu olan bir teori haline gelmiş ve Türkçe’ye Cahil Cesareti olarak çevrilmiştir. Bu doğrultuda çalışmanın amacı "Dunning Kruger Effect" ve "Cahil Cesareti" kelimesinin Google aranma sıklıklarını inceleyerek, kavramların bilinirlik düzeylerini ABD ve Türkiye ülkelerinde karşılaştırmalı olarak tespit etmektir. İncelenen Google Trends verileri ve yapılan literatür incelemesi neticesinde Dunning Kruger Effect teorisinin ABD’de hem genel kategoride hem de finans kategorisinde bilindiği tespit edilmiştir. Türkiye’de ise ilgili kavramın genel kategoride bilindiği ve bazı çalışmalara konu edildiği görülmüştür. Ayrıca ilgili kavramın finans bilinirliğinin olmadığı hem Google Trends verileri hem de literatür araması sonucunda tespit edilmiştir. Bu doğrultuda çalışma Türkçe karşılığı Cahil Cesareti olan Dunning Kruger Effect teorisinin, finans literatüründeki bilinirlilik düzeyini belirleme aşamasında ulusal literatüre özgünlük katmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Dunning Kruger Etkisi
• Cahil Cesareti
• Google Trends
• Davranışsal Finans
• Bilişsel Önyargı

Kaynakça

1. Aktan, C. C. (2018). Yeni iktisadi okulları ve iktisadi düşünce. Ankara: Seçkin Yayıncılık
2. Anson, I. G. (2018). Partisanship, political knowledge, and the Dunning‐Kruger Effect. Political Psychology, 39(5), 1173-1192.
3. Chi, M. T. (1978). Knowledge structures and memory development. Children'sTthinking: What Develops, 1, 75-96.
4. Choi, H. ve Varian, H. (2012). Predicting the present with Google trends. Economic Record, 88(1), 2-9.
5. Çatalbaş, M. C. (2020). An investigation into the relationship between curse of dimensiona-lity and Dunning-Kruger Effect. Sakarya University Journal of Computer and Infor-mation Sciences, 3(2), 121-130.
6. Dunning, D. (2011). The Dunning–Kruger Effect: On being ignorant of one's own ignorance. In Advances in Experimental Social Psychology 44, 247-296.
7. Dunning, D., Johnson, K., Ehrlinger, J. ve Kruger, J. (2003). Why people fail to recognize their own incompetence. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 12(3), 83-87.
8. Fesenmaier, D. R., Xiang, Z., Pan, B. ve Law, R. (2011). A framework of search engine use for travel planning. Journal of Travel Research, 50(6), 587-601.

9. Kruger, J. ve Dunning, D. (1999). Unskilled and unaware of it: how difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 77(6), 1121.
10. Küçün, N. T. , Güngör, S. ve Eroğlu, S. (2020). Dunning-Kruger sendromu çerçevesinden girişimcilik eğitimlerinin girişimci adayları üzerindeki etkisinin incelenmesi. Journal of Entrepreneurship and Innovation Management, 9 (1), 1-29.
11. Mahmood, K. (2016). Do people overestimate their information literacy skills? A systematic review of empirical evidence on the Dunning-Kruger effect. Communications in In-Formation Literacy, 10(2), 3.
12. McPherson, S. L. ve Thomas, J. R. (1989). Relation of knowledge and performance in boys' tennis: age and expertise. Journal of Experimental Child Psychology, 48(2), 190-211.
13. Savaş, S. (2016). Dunning-Kruger sendromu ve kurumsal dışavurum. Erciyes İletişim Dergisi, 4(3).
14. Schlösser, T., Dunning, D., Johnson, K. L. ve Kruger, J. (2013). How unaware are the unskilled? Empirical tests of the “signal extraction” counterexplanation for the dunning–kruger effect in self-evaluation of performance. Journal of Economic Psychology, 39, 85-100.
15. Somyürek, S. ve Çelik, İ. (2018). Dunning-Kruger sendromu ve öznel değerlendirmeler. Eğitim Teknolojisi Kuram ve Uygulama, 8(1), 141-157.
16. Tubinis, J. (2015). Dunning-Kruger and you: Evaluating your technological competence with the legal tech audit. Continuing Legal Education Presentations. 5.
17. Yazıcılar, A. (2019). Dunning-Kruger ya da Cahil Cesareti Sendromu.(2021 10 Ekim), Erişim adresi: https://gencdergisi.com/13333-dunning-kruger-ya-da-cahil-cesareti-sendromu.html