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An Analysis of the Relationship Between Public Expenditures and Economic Growth in the Scope of Wagner and Keynes: The Example of EU Countries

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 2, 777 - 796, 02.08.2022

Göksel Karaş

https://doi.org/10.48146/odusobiad.1090745

Öz

Determining the direction of the relationship between public expenditures and economic growth has been among the issues that have been discussed for many years. In the paper, the relationship between public expenditures and economic growth was investigated within the scope of Wagner's Law and Keynes Theory, using annual data for the period of 1995-2019 for EU countries. For this purpose, Westerlund (2008) Durbin-Hausman cointegration test and Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) panel causality test were applied to test the related theories. According to the findings, it has been concluded that the Wagner Law is generally valid in EU countries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Wagner Keynesian Theory Public Expenditures Economic Growth Panel Data Analysis

Kaynakça

  • Abizadeh, S. ve Yousefi, M. (1988). An empirical re-examination of Wagner’s Law. Economic Letters, 26, 169-173.
  • Afxentiou, P. C. ve Serletis, A. (1996). Government Expenditures in the European Union: Do They Converge or Follow Wagner's Law?. International Economic Journal, 10(3), 33-47.
  • Ahsan, S. M., Kwan, A. C. C. ve Sahni, B. S. (1996). Cointegration and Wagner's hypothesis: time series evidence for Canada. Applied Economics, 28(8), 1055-1058.
  • Al-Faris, A. F. (2002). Public expenditure and economic growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Applied Economics, 34, 1187-1195.
  • Ali, W. ve Munir, K. (2016). Testing Wagner versus Keynesian Hypothesis for Pakistan: The Role of Aggregate and Disaggregate Expenditure. MPRA Paper No. 74570.
  • Ansari, M. I., Gordon, D. V. ve Akuamoah, C. (1997). Keynes versus Wagner: public expenditure and national income for three African countries. Applied Economics, 29, 435-550.
  • Antonis, A., Constantinos, K. ve Persefoni, T. (2013). Wagner’s Law versus Keynesian Hypothesis: Evidence from pre-WWII Greece. Panoeconomicus, 4, 457-472.
  • Arısoy, İ. (2005). Wagner Ve Keynes Hipotezleri Çerçevesinde Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları Ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi. Ç.Ü. Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 14(2), 63-80.
  • Başar, S., Aksu, H., Temurlenk, M. S. ve Polat, Ö. (2009). Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Büyüme İlişkisi: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 13(1), 301-314.
  • Blankenau, F. B., Simpson, N. B. ve Tomljanovich, M. (2007). Public education expenditure, taxation, and growth: Linking data to theory. American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 97(2), 393-397.
  • Chandran, G., Rao, R. ve Anwar, S. (2011). Economic growth and government spending in Malaysia: A re-examination of Wagner and Keynesian views. Economic Change and Restructuring, 44, 203-219.
  • Doğan, E. ve Tang, T. C. (2006). Government Expenditure And National Income: Causality Tests For Five South East Asian Countries. International Business & Economics Research Journal, 5(10), 49-58.
  • Dumitrescu, E. I. ve Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger Non-causality in Heterogeneous Panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460.
  • Dünya Bankası Veri Bankası, https://data.worldbank.org/, (Erişim: 05.08.2021).
  • Ebaidalla, E. M. (2013), “Causality between government expenditure and national income: Evidence from Sudan”, Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, Vol. 34, No. 4: 61-76.
  • Edizdoğan, N.; Çetinkaya, Ö.; Gümüş, E. (2012), Kamu Maliyesi, 4. Baskı, Bursa: Ekin Basım Yayın.
  • Eldemerdash, H.; Ahmed, K. I. S. (2019), “Wagner's law vs. Keynesian hypothesis: New Evidence from Egypt”, International Journal of Arts and Commerce, Vol. 8, No. 3: 1-18.
  • Eurostat Database. (2021, 6 Ağustos). Erişim adresi: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database,
  • Ghali, K. H. (1998). Government size and economic growth: Evidence from a multivariate cointegration analysis. Applied Economics, 31, 975-987.
  • Gövdeli, T. (2019). Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye’de Wagner Yasası ve Keynesyen Hipotezin Ampirik Analizi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 33(3), 995-1010.
  • Gül, E. ve Yavuz, H. (2010). AB’nin Yeni Üyeleri ile Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: 1996-2008 Dönemi. Maliye Dergisi, 158, 164-178.
  • Henrekson, M. (1993). Wagner’s Law-A Spurious Relationship. Public Finance, 48(3), 406-415.
  • Karabulut, Ş. (2020). Wagner Ve Keynes Hipotezinin Geçerliliği: Türkiye Örneği. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Vizyoner Dergisi, 11(Ek), 150-168.
  • Karahan, Ö. ve Çolak, O. (2019). Examining the Validity of Wagner's Law versus Keynesian Hypothesis: Evidence from Turkey's Economy. Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, 66(1), 117-130.
  • Karaş, E. (2020). Wagner Kanunu’nun BRICS Ülkeleri ve Türkiye Bazında Geçerliliğinin Sınanması. Maliye Dergisi, 178, 199-223.
  • Keynes, J. M. (1964). The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, 1st Harvard/HBJ Edition, Florida: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich.
  • Kiraz, H. ve Gümüş, E. (2017). Kamu Harcamalarının Büyümeye Etkisi: OECD Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Araştırma. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 54(631), 9-22.
  • Loizides, J. ve Vamvoukas, G. (2005). Government expenditure and economic growth: Evidence from trivariate causality testing. Journal of Applied Economics, 8(1), 125-152.
  • Magazzino, C. (2012). Wagner’s Law and Augmented Wagner’s Law in EU-27. A Time-Series Analysis on Stationarity, Cointegration and Causality. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 89, 205-220.
  • Menyah, K., Nazlıoğlu, Ş. ve Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2014). Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in African Countries: New Insights from a Panel Causality Approach. Economic Modelling, 37, 386-394.
  • Mercan, M. (2014). Feldstein-Horioka Hipotezinin AB-15 ve Türkiye Ekonomisi için Sınanması: Yatay Kesit Bağımlılığı Altında Yapısal Kırılmalı Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi. Ege Akademik Bakış, 14(2), 231-245.
  • Nyasha, S. ve Odhiambo, N. M. (2019). Government Size and Economic Growth: A Review of International Literature. SAGE Open, 2019, 1-12.
  • Oktayer, N. ve Susam, N. (2008). Kamu Harcamaları- Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: 1970-2005 Yılları Türkiye Örneği. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 22(1), 145-164.
  • Oxley, L. (1994). Cointegration, Causality and Wagner’s Law: A Test For Britain 1870-1913. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 41(3), 286-298.
  • Paul, F. ve Furahisha, G. (2017). Government Expenditure and Economic Growth Nexus: Wagner’s law or Keynesian Hypothesis for Tanzania?. African Journal of Economic Review, 5(1), 32-47.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2006). Estimation And Inference In Large Heterogeneous Panels With A Multifactor Error Structure. Econometrica, 74(4), 967-1012.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in The Presence of Cross-section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22, 265-312.
  • Ram, R. (1987). Wagner's Hypothesis in Time-Series and Cross-Section Perspectives: Evidence from "Real" Data for 115 Countries. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 69(2), 194-204.
  • Rauf, A., Qayum, A. ve Zaman, K. (2012). Relatıonship Between Public Expenditure And National Income: An Empirical Investigation Of Wagner’s Law In Case Of Pakistan. Academic Research International, 2(2), 533-538.
  • Ray, S. ve Ray, I. A. (2012). On the relationship between government’s developmental expenditure and economic growth in India: A cointegration analysis. Advances in Applied Economics and Finance, 1(2), 86-94.
  • Sağdıç, E. N., Şaşmaz, M. Ü. ve Tuncer, G. (2020). Wagner versus Keynes: Empirical Evidence from Turkey’s Provinces. Panoeconomicus, 67(5), 657-674.
  • Samudram, M., Nair, M. ve Vaithilingam, S. (2009). Keynes and Wagner on government expenditures and economic development: The case of a developing economy. Empirical Economics, 36, 697-712.
  • Sanchez-Juarez, I., Almada, R. M. G. ve Bustillos, H. B. (2016). The Relationship between Total Production and Public Spending in Mexico: Keynes versus Wagner. International Journal of Financial Research, 7(1), 109-120.
  • Sedrakyan, G. S. ve Varela-Candamio, L. (2019). ScienceDirectWagner’s law vs. Keynes’ hypothesis in very differentcountries (Armenia and Spain). Journal of Policy Modeling, 41, 747–762.
  • Singh, B. ve Sahni, B. S. (1984). Causality Between Public Expenditure and National Income. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 66(4), 630-644.
  • Tang, T. C. (2009). Wagner’s Law versus Keynesian Hypothesis in Malaysia: An Impressionistic View. Department of Economics, Discussion paper, No. 21/09.
  • Tokatlıoğlu, M. ve Selen, U. (2020). Maliye Politikası, 2. Baskı, Bursa: Ekin Basım Yayın.
  • Wahyudi, Y. (2020). The Relationship between Government Spending and Economic Growth Revisited. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 10(6), 84-88.
  • Wang, L., Dumitrescu Peculea, A. ve Xu, H. (2016). The relationship between public expenditure and economic growth in Romania: Does it obey Wagner’s or Keynes’s Law?. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 23(3), 41-52.
  • Westerlund, J. (2008). Panel Cointegration Tests Of The Fisher Effect. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23, 193-233.

Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Wagner ve Keynes Kapsamında Analizi: AB Ülkeleri Örneği

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 2, 777 - 796, 02.08.2022

Göksel Karaş

https://doi.org/10.48146/odusobiad.1090745

Öz

Kamu harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin yönünün belirlenmesi uzun yıllardır tartışılan konular arasındadır. Çalışmada, AB ülkeleri özelinde 1995-2019 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılarak, kamu harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki Wagner Kanunu ve Keynes Teorisi kapsamında araştırılmıştır. Bu amaçla ilgili teorilerin test edilebilmesi için Westerlund (2008) Durbin-Hausman Eşbütünleşme testi ve Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) panel nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, AB ülkelerinde genel olarak Wagner Kanununun geçerli olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Wagner Kanunu Keynesyen Teori Kamu Harcamaları Ekonomik Büyüme Panel Veri Analizi

Kaynakça

  • Abizadeh, S. ve Yousefi, M. (1988). An empirical re-examination of Wagner’s Law. Economic Letters, 26, 169-173.
  • Afxentiou, P. C. ve Serletis, A. (1996). Government Expenditures in the European Union: Do They Converge or Follow Wagner's Law?. International Economic Journal, 10(3), 33-47.
  • Ahsan, S. M., Kwan, A. C. C. ve Sahni, B. S. (1996). Cointegration and Wagner's hypothesis: time series evidence for Canada. Applied Economics, 28(8), 1055-1058.
  • Al-Faris, A. F. (2002). Public expenditure and economic growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Applied Economics, 34, 1187-1195.
  • Ali, W. ve Munir, K. (2016). Testing Wagner versus Keynesian Hypothesis for Pakistan: The Role of Aggregate and Disaggregate Expenditure. MPRA Paper No. 74570.
  • Ansari, M. I., Gordon, D. V. ve Akuamoah, C. (1997). Keynes versus Wagner: public expenditure and national income for three African countries. Applied Economics, 29, 435-550.
  • Antonis, A., Constantinos, K. ve Persefoni, T. (2013). Wagner’s Law versus Keynesian Hypothesis: Evidence from pre-WWII Greece. Panoeconomicus, 4, 457-472.
  • Arısoy, İ. (2005). Wagner Ve Keynes Hipotezleri Çerçevesinde Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları Ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi. Ç.Ü. Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 14(2), 63-80.
  • Başar, S., Aksu, H., Temurlenk, M. S. ve Polat, Ö. (2009). Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Büyüme İlişkisi: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 13(1), 301-314.
  • Blankenau, F. B., Simpson, N. B. ve Tomljanovich, M. (2007). Public education expenditure, taxation, and growth: Linking data to theory. American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 97(2), 393-397.
  • Chandran, G., Rao, R. ve Anwar, S. (2011). Economic growth and government spending in Malaysia: A re-examination of Wagner and Keynesian views. Economic Change and Restructuring, 44, 203-219.
  • Doğan, E. ve Tang, T. C. (2006). Government Expenditure And National Income: Causality Tests For Five South East Asian Countries. International Business & Economics Research Journal, 5(10), 49-58.
  • Dumitrescu, E. I. ve Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger Non-causality in Heterogeneous Panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460.
  • Dünya Bankası Veri Bankası, https://data.worldbank.org/, (Erişim: 05.08.2021).
  • Ebaidalla, E. M. (2013), “Causality between government expenditure and national income: Evidence from Sudan”, Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, Vol. 34, No. 4: 61-76.
  • Edizdoğan, N.; Çetinkaya, Ö.; Gümüş, E. (2012), Kamu Maliyesi, 4. Baskı, Bursa: Ekin Basım Yayın.
  • Eldemerdash, H.; Ahmed, K. I. S. (2019), “Wagner's law vs. Keynesian hypothesis: New Evidence from Egypt”, International Journal of Arts and Commerce, Vol. 8, No. 3: 1-18.
  • Eurostat Database. (2021, 6 Ağustos). Erişim adresi: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database,
  • Ghali, K. H. (1998). Government size and economic growth: Evidence from a multivariate cointegration analysis. Applied Economics, 31, 975-987.
  • Gövdeli, T. (2019). Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye’de Wagner Yasası ve Keynesyen Hipotezin Ampirik Analizi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 33(3), 995-1010.
  • Gül, E. ve Yavuz, H. (2010). AB’nin Yeni Üyeleri ile Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: 1996-2008 Dönemi. Maliye Dergisi, 158, 164-178.
  • Henrekson, M. (1993). Wagner’s Law-A Spurious Relationship. Public Finance, 48(3), 406-415.
  • Karabulut, Ş. (2020). Wagner Ve Keynes Hipotezinin Geçerliliği: Türkiye Örneği. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Vizyoner Dergisi, 11(Ek), 150-168.
  • Karahan, Ö. ve Çolak, O. (2019). Examining the Validity of Wagner's Law versus Keynesian Hypothesis: Evidence from Turkey's Economy. Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, 66(1), 117-130.
  • Karaş, E. (2020). Wagner Kanunu’nun BRICS Ülkeleri ve Türkiye Bazında Geçerliliğinin Sınanması. Maliye Dergisi, 178, 199-223.
  • Keynes, J. M. (1964). The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, 1st Harvard/HBJ Edition, Florida: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich.
  • Kiraz, H. ve Gümüş, E. (2017). Kamu Harcamalarının Büyümeye Etkisi: OECD Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Araştırma. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 54(631), 9-22.
  • Loizides, J. ve Vamvoukas, G. (2005). Government expenditure and economic growth: Evidence from trivariate causality testing. Journal of Applied Economics, 8(1), 125-152.
  • Magazzino, C. (2012). Wagner’s Law and Augmented Wagner’s Law in EU-27. A Time-Series Analysis on Stationarity, Cointegration and Causality. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 89, 205-220.
  • Menyah, K., Nazlıoğlu, Ş. ve Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2014). Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in African Countries: New Insights from a Panel Causality Approach. Economic Modelling, 37, 386-394.
  • Mercan, M. (2014). Feldstein-Horioka Hipotezinin AB-15 ve Türkiye Ekonomisi için Sınanması: Yatay Kesit Bağımlılığı Altında Yapısal Kırılmalı Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi. Ege Akademik Bakış, 14(2), 231-245.
  • Nyasha, S. ve Odhiambo, N. M. (2019). Government Size and Economic Growth: A Review of International Literature. SAGE Open, 2019, 1-12.
  • Oktayer, N. ve Susam, N. (2008). Kamu Harcamaları- Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: 1970-2005 Yılları Türkiye Örneği. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 22(1), 145-164.
  • Oxley, L. (1994). Cointegration, Causality and Wagner’s Law: A Test For Britain 1870-1913. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 41(3), 286-298.
  • Paul, F. ve Furahisha, G. (2017). Government Expenditure and Economic Growth Nexus: Wagner’s law or Keynesian Hypothesis for Tanzania?. African Journal of Economic Review, 5(1), 32-47.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2006). Estimation And Inference In Large Heterogeneous Panels With A Multifactor Error Structure. Econometrica, 74(4), 967-1012.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in The Presence of Cross-section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22, 265-312.
  • Ram, R. (1987). Wagner's Hypothesis in Time-Series and Cross-Section Perspectives: Evidence from "Real" Data for 115 Countries. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 69(2), 194-204.
  • Rauf, A., Qayum, A. ve Zaman, K. (2012). Relatıonship Between Public Expenditure And National Income: An Empirical Investigation Of Wagner’s Law In Case Of Pakistan. Academic Research International, 2(2), 533-538.
  • Ray, S. ve Ray, I. A. (2012). On the relationship between government’s developmental expenditure and economic growth in India: A cointegration analysis. Advances in Applied Economics and Finance, 1(2), 86-94.
  • Sağdıç, E. N., Şaşmaz, M. Ü. ve Tuncer, G. (2020). Wagner versus Keynes: Empirical Evidence from Turkey’s Provinces. Panoeconomicus, 67(5), 657-674.
  • Samudram, M., Nair, M. ve Vaithilingam, S. (2009). Keynes and Wagner on government expenditures and economic development: The case of a developing economy. Empirical Economics, 36, 697-712.
  • Sanchez-Juarez, I., Almada, R. M. G. ve Bustillos, H. B. (2016). The Relationship between Total Production and Public Spending in Mexico: Keynes versus Wagner. International Journal of Financial Research, 7(1), 109-120.
  • Sedrakyan, G. S. ve Varela-Candamio, L. (2019). ScienceDirectWagner’s law vs. Keynes’ hypothesis in very differentcountries (Armenia and Spain). Journal of Policy Modeling, 41, 747–762.
  • Singh, B. ve Sahni, B. S. (1984). Causality Between Public Expenditure and National Income. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 66(4), 630-644.
  • Tang, T. C. (2009). Wagner’s Law versus Keynesian Hypothesis in Malaysia: An Impressionistic View. Department of Economics, Discussion paper, No. 21/09.
  • Tokatlıoğlu, M. ve Selen, U. (2020). Maliye Politikası, 2. Baskı, Bursa: Ekin Basım Yayın.
  • Wahyudi, Y. (2020). The Relationship between Government Spending and Economic Growth Revisited. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 10(6), 84-88.
  • Wang, L., Dumitrescu Peculea, A. ve Xu, H. (2016). The relationship between public expenditure and economic growth in Romania: Does it obey Wagner’s or Keynes’s Law?. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 23(3), 41-52.
  • Westerlund, J. (2008). Panel Cointegration Tests Of The Fisher Effect. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23, 193-233.
Toplam 50 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm ARAŞTIRMA MAKALESİ
Yazarlar

Göksel Karaş 0000-0003-4091-1258

Yayımlanma Tarihi 2 Ağustos 2022
Gönderilme Tarihi 21 Mart 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 12 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Karaş, G. (2022). Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Wagner ve Keynes Kapsamında Analizi: AB Ülkeleri Örneği. Ordu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi, 12(2), 777-796. https://doi.org/10.48146/odusobiad.1090745
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