Çıktı ve İşsizlik Arasında bir Denge Var mıdır? G-20 Ülkeleri İçin Okun Yasası’ndan bir Kanıt

Öz

Literatürde Okun Yasası olarak bilinen şekliyle çıktı ile işsizlik arasında G-20 ülkeleri için bir denge var olabilir. Bu araştırmanın amacı, G-20 ülkeleri için 1991-2014 dönemini kapsayan zaman serisi verileri ile Okun Yasasını yeniden gözden geçirmektir. İlişkiyi test etmek için birinci dereceden fark ve “boşluk” belirtme metotları kullanılmaktadır. Boşluk belirtme metodu için Hodrick-Prescott (HP), Chiristiano-Fitzgerald (CF) and Butterworth (BW) filtreleme teknikleri yürütülmektedir. Tüm metotlar için, bulgular ülkelerin çoğunda çıktı ile işsizlik arasında ters bir ilişkinin varlığını doğrulamaktadır. İlginç bir bulgu ise Çin, Endonezya, Sudi Arabistan ve Türkiye’de kullanılan bu filtreleme tekniklerinin en az bir tanesiyle Okun katsayısı sağlanamamaktadır. Anlaşılmaktadır ki, G-20 ülkeleri gelişme karakteristikleri ve üretim farklılıklarına dayanarak farklı Okun katsayıları sergilemektedirler.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Okun Yasası,İşsizlik,Çıktı,G-20 Ülkeleri

Is there a Trade-off between Output and Unemployment? An Evidence from Okun’s Law for G-20 Countries

Öz

There can be a trade-off between output and unemployment which is formally called in literature as Okun’s Law for G-20 countries. The objective of this research is to reconsider Okun’s Law for G-20 countries with time-series data over the period 1991-2014. First order difference and “gap” specification methods are used for testing the relationship. Three different filtering techniques; Hodrick-Prescott (HP), Chiristiano-Fitzgerald (CF) and Butterworth (BW) are conducted for the gap specification method. For all methods, the results validate the existence of inverse relation between output and unemployment in most of the countries. An interesting finding is China, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and, Turkey do not satisfy the Okun’s coefficient with at least one of these filtering techniques. It is understood that, Group of G-20 countries display different Okun’s coefficients depending on their development structures and productivity heterogeneities.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Okun’s Law,Unemployment,Output,G20 Countries

Kaynakça

1. Adanu, K. (2005). “A cross-province comparison of Okun's coefficient for Canada”, Applied Economics, 37: 5, 561-570.
2. Azorín J. D. B. and Vega M. D. M. S. d. l. (2017). “Output growth thresholds for the creation of employment and the reduction of unemployment: A spatial analysis with panel data from the Spanish provinces, 2000–2011”, Regional Science and Urban Economics 67: 42–49
3. Ball, L., Jalles J. T. and Loungani, P. (2015). “Do forecasters believe in Okun’s Law? An assessment of unemployment and output forecasts”, International Journal of Forecasting, 31, 176-184.
4. Bhattarai K. (2016). “Unemployment–inflation trade-offs in OECD countries”, Economic Modelling, 58: 93–103.
5. Butterworth, S. (1930). “On the theory of filter amplifiers”, Experimental Wireless and the Wireless Engineer, 7: 536–541.
6. Christiano L.J. and Fitzgerald T.J. (2003). “The band pass filter”, International Ecnonomic Review, 44, 435-465.
7. Christopoulos D. K. (2004). “The relationship between output and unemployment: Evidence from Greek regions”, Regional Science, 83, 611–620.
8. Durech, R., Minea, A., Mustea L. and Slusna L. (2014). “Regional evidence on Okun's Law in Czech Republic and Slovakia”, Economic Modelling, 42, 57–65.

9. Gordon, Robert J. (1998). “Macroeconomics”, New York: Harper Collins.
10. Grant A. L. (2018). “The Great Recession and Okun's law”, Economic Modelling. 69: 291–300.
11. Guisinger, A., & Sinclair, T. (2015). “Okun’s Law in real-time”, International Journal of Forecasting, 31: 1, 185–187.
12. Freeman, D. (2000). “Regional tests of Okun’s Law”, International Advances in Economic Research, 6: 3, 557–570.
13. Harris R. and Silverstone B., (2001). “Testing for asymmetry in Okun's law: A cross−country comparison”, Economics Bulletin, 5: 2, 1−13.
14. Hodrick R. J. and Prescott E.C. (1997). “Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Emprical Investigation”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29:1, 1-16.
15. IEA, (2012). “Key World Energy Statistics International Energy Agency”, Statistics Division, Paris.
16. Kangasharju , A. , Tavera, C. & Nijkamp, P. (2012). “Regional Growth and Unemployment: The Validity of Okun's Law for the Finnish Regions”, Spatial Economic Analysis, 7:3, 381-395.
17. Kim, M. J., Park, S. Y. & Jei, S. Y. (2015). “An empirical test for Okun’s law using a smooth time-varying parameter approach: evidence from East Asian countries”, Applied Economics Letters, 22:10, 788-795.
18. Lee, J. (2000). “The robustness of Okun’s Law: evidence from OECD countries”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 22, 331–356.
19. Mankiw, N. Gregory. (1994). “Macroeconomics”, New York: Worth Publishers.
20. Okun, A. M. (1962). “Potential GNP: its measurement and significance”, In Proceedings of the business and economics statistics section. American Statistical Association.
21. Okun, A. M. (1970). “Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance. In The Political Economy of Prosperity”, New York: Norton, 132-45.
22. Perman, R. and Tavera, C. (2005). “A cross-country analysis of the Okun’s Law coefficient convergence in Europe”, Applied Economics, 37, 2501-2513.
23. Pierdzioch, C., Rülke, J., & Stadtmann, G. (2011). “Do Professional economists’ forecasts reflect Okun’s Law? Some evidence for the G7countries”, Applied Economics, 43, 1365–1373.
24. Pollock, D. S. G. (1999). “A Handbook of Time-Series Analysis, Signal Processing and Dynamics”, London: Academic Press.
25. Rülke, J. (2012). “Do professional forecasters apply the Phillips curve and Okun’s Law? Evidence from six Asian–Pacific countries”, Japan and the World Economy, 24:4, 317–324.
26. Stata (2013). “Stata Time Series Reference Manual Release 13”, Stata Press, 4905 Lakeway Drive, College Station, Texas 77845.
27. Tang B. and Bethencourt C. (2017). “Asymmetric unemployment-output tradeoff in theEurozone”, Journal of Policy Modeling. 39: 461–481.
28. Villaverde, J. & Maza, A. (2009). “The robustness of Okun’s law in Spain, 1980–2004 Regional evidence”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 31, 289–297.
29. Viren, M. (2001). “The Okun curve is non-linear”, Economic letters, 70, 253-257.